Resisting Reality
lesswrong.com·2h
🚂Error Propagation
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Published on January 22, 2026 1:50 PM GMT

Sometimes updating on evidence opens roads we do not want to take: roads that we do not like as we know where they inevitably lead. We sometimes prefer to stay in homeostasis, in our current lane, suboptimal.

One evocative example is the sort of paradoxical blend of invective mania and social apathy within trading circles. A lot of finance people don’t take the political environment or the meanderings of the presidency seriously, they don’t take what’s happening seriously — they just go with the flow and they just trade. Their only goal is to forecast, to predict, and to capitalize on the arbitrage of that prediction unto reality; not to judge or countervail. This is rational and market-participant optimal, yet something is lost. …

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