With help from Eli Okun and Ali Bianco

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Megan and Myah Ward discuss the White House’s juggling act between its Venezuela action and the affordability issues many voters face.

Happy Friday! This is Megan Messerly. Get in touch.

In today’s Playbook …

— Can Trump thread the needle between his Venezuela action and the affordability agenda?

— It’s decision day at the Supreme Court for the first time in 2026.

— New details of Trump’s grand White House ballroom reveal scope of the project.

THE AFFORDABILITY AGENDA: Republicans came into 2026 expecting a midterm fight centered squarely on kitchen-table economics: high prices, housing costs, gas and groceries.

One week into the new year, President Donald Trump has handed his party a far more complicated task — explaining to everyday Americans why they should care about the capture of a Venezuelan dictator.

Trump allies, in a story out this morning by your Playbook author and my colleagues Myah Ward and Alex Gangitano, say they remain fully behind the audacious operation that removed Nicolás Maduro from power last weekend. But privately and publicly, some are acknowledging a basic political reality: foreign interventions have a habit of swallowing presidencies. And if voters can’t see how Venezuela connects to their own pocketbooks, it risks crowding out the affordability message Republicans want to hammer ahead of the midterms.

That explains the White House’s all-out effort to reframe the Venezuela operation not as nation-building but as an “America First” play. Ousting Maduro isn’t just good for the American people, the White House and its allies argued to us, but it will also bring down oil prices for Americans, help with border security and reduce the flow of drugs into the U.S.

“There’s a big difference between the nation building and regime change of the neocons and what the president is doing,” said Trump political adviser Alex Bruesewitz. He added: “We just need to stay very clear on our message on how our foreign policy impacts us domestically.”

One senior White House official argued that the administration has defined the operation “in a way that’s easily understandable for voters.” A Republican operative helping coordinate the party’s 2026 strategy put it more bluntly: “Gas prices are going to come down, especially if Trump is brokering these oil deals … All these issues are intertwined.”

The messaging push comes as warning lights flash this week: Five Republicans broke with Trump on Thursday to advance a war powers measure aimed at limiting future military action without congressional approval, a rare rebuke that prompted Trump to threaten their political futures. And the operation comes amid a spate of broader saber-rattling, from Cuba to Greenland, that has some Republicans uneasy about how much oxygen foreign policy will consume in an election year.

“Foreign interventions are totally asymmetric in their risk-reward profile, meaning you really don’t get much reward. People vote on their pocketbooks, they don’t vote on foreign affairs, with rare exceptions. But you can absolutely get punished badly when overseas adventures go poorly,” one former senior Trump adviser told Playbook.

And if history is any indicator, there could yet be trouble ahead. Just ask former President George W. Bush, who started the Iraq War with overwhelming support only to later see his foreign policy agenda overshadow his domestic priorities.

So far, Trump’s team is arguing they can walk and chew gum at the same time. Officials point to a steady drumbeat of domestic announcements — from housing proposals to health initiatives — as evidence the White House remains committed to affordability. And MAGA world, at least for now, appears onboard with the Venezuela strike.

Democrats, meanwhile, see an opening to ding Trump over a perceived abandonment of his “America First” principles amid the Venezuela quagmire — hoping to drive this messaging home with voters who would rather see a laser-focused agenda to help their pocketbooks.

But seasoned Democratic operatives concede that line only sticks if Venezuela is the beginning of a pattern, not a contained episode. “Then, I think, it would be very much defining and in a negative way,” said longtime Democratic operative David Axelrod, who helped lead Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “But he still hasn’t crossed that Rubicon.”

INCOMING: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the December jobs report at 8:30 a.m. — providing a big initial test of how much the economic readings can break through amid a flurry of headlines surrounding Trump’s Venezuela action and the fallout that has ensued.

What to expect: Today’s data drop will also mark the first time in months that a monthly jobs report comes in “with a relatively clear view of the health of the labor market, following a long period of delays and distortions from the government shutdown,” as our Morning Money colleagues write today. The labor market “likely showed modest improvement in December, providing some encouragement for the year ahead but nothing to get too excited about,” CNBC’s Jeff Cox previews. “Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 73,000 last month while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.5%, according to the Dow Jones consensus.”

**THE STEPBACK: **“We Learned Something Fascinating About Trump’s Foreign Policy This Week,” by POLITICO Magazine: “POLITICO reporters break down Trump’s escalating approach to U.S. power.”

WAR AND PEACE

CRUDE REALITY: Trump is set to meet with a who’s who of top oil executives at the White House at** 2:30 p.m**. to discuss his push to rebuild and maximize oil output from Venezuela. Representatives from Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips and more are among the companies Trump is eyeing to make the investment.

Reality check: The oil giants most capable of helping rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector are also the most skeptical, while smaller oil companies are ringing the White House phones to jump in, POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre and colleagues report. The biggest companies “are unsure it would be in their best interests — or even possible,” and will likely come to the White House with questions.

The room where it happens: Energy executives have been crafting a plan to present Trump today — to get Venezuela’s output up by hundreds of thousands of barrels a day, CNN’s Adam Cancryn and David Goldman report. But it comes with conditions that the U.S. lift more sanctions and provide supplies necessary to move the oil. The executives have been scrambling to pre-empt possible on-the-spot commitments from Trump for quick ambitious investments.

**What Trump is saying: **The executives’ reluctance is running up against an exuberant Trump, though. “The top 14 companies are coming here. They are going to go in. They are going to rebuild the whole oil infrastructure. They are going to spend at least $100 billion,” he told Fox News’ Sean Hannity in an interview last night. So much for that plan. More from POLITICO’s James Bikales

VENEZUELA VEX: As questions continue to mount on what is to come in Venezuela’s future and its transition following last weekend’s raid, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is still the one taking the lead, Playbook’s Dasha Burns writes in. That’s in no small part because of Rubio’s ability to speak Spanish and communicate with the regime, a senior White House official told Dasha. “Marco’s doing all the diplomacy. Marco’s opening the embassy again,” they said. Trump has a closed-door meeting with Rubio today at 11 a.m.

Another meeting to watch for: Trump signaled that opposition leader **María Corina Machado **might soon be headed to Washington. “I understand she’s coming in the next week sometime, and I look forward to saying hello to her,” Trump told Hannity. He said it would be a “great honor” to receive the Nobel prize that Machado has said she would like to present to him.

On the ground in Caracas: Venezuela’s government started releasing political prisoners yesterday from two of the country’s notorious prisons, NYT’s Jack Nicas and colleagues report. The government also released official numbers following the U.S. strike, saying over 100 were killed, per Reuters.

FROM ZELENSKYY, WITH LOVE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday that the security guarantees between Kyiv and Washington are “essentially ready” to be finalized by Trump, following a big week of negotiations in Paris where top U.S. officials also hashed out some of the peace deal’s biggest sticking points, per Reuters. Russia is yet again sowing doubt on how far these security guarantees will get once they reach Russia’s negotiators, saying any foreign troops sent to Ukraine would be “legitimate combat targets.”

**The looming question is whether, **or when, Trump will flip the switch and move on from negotiations if no plan bears out. “We had a great meeting with Zelenskyy in Mar-a-Lago, but they can’t get over the last territorial hurdle,” the senior White House official told Dasha. “We know Donald Trump at a certain point, he’s just gonna say forget it.” But Trump has put a lot of faith in the **Steve Witkoff **and Jared Kushner duo. “He can’t believe there’s anything they can’t solve. But I think we’re getting there.”

**Greasing the wheels: **“Ukraine Awards Major Lithium Project to Investors With Links to Trump,” by NYT’s Constant Méheut

**SOMEWHERE THAT’S GREEN: **U.S. officials are weighing sending “lump sum payments” to residents of Greenland as part of a push to convince them to secede and join the U.S., Reuters’ Gram Slattery scoops. That could look like “figures ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 per person,” but it’s one of various plans being discussed by the White House. Meanwhile, officials from Greenland and Denmark met with lawmakers on the Hill and White House National Security Council officials yesterday on Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland.

**IRAN LATEST: **Iran was sent into an internet blackout yesterday as nationwide protests demanding regime change swelled in multiple cities, NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi and colleagues report. Iran’s government has threatened to crack down on the protestors, which have been rallying for over a week. Security forces have been responding with violence, but have been largely unable to deter the crowds, WaPo’s Yeganeh Torbati writes.

SCOTUS WATCH

**DECISION DAY: **It’s the first Supreme Court decision day of 2026, which is set to deliver a landmark set of rulings over the course of the term with far-reaching implications for Trump. For a look at what to expect today and as the term unfolds, we asked POLITICO senior legal affairs reporter Josh Gerstein for a download on what he’s watching for today:

As is its custom, the Supreme Court hasn’t said in which case or cases it will release opinions this morning, but speculation is building that it could be a verdict on the tariff policy that Trump has billed as the centerpiece of his economic agenda, Josh writes in.

It’s been four months since the Supreme Court agreed to “expedite” the tariffs challenges and two months since oral arguments in the cases suggested the justices were leaning against the president on the issue. While there’s no deadline for a decision, factoring in the holidays, today seems like a reasonable amount of time for a fast-track decision.

On the other hand, today’s in-person sitting has been on the court’s calendar since last year, long before the justices knew they’d be taking up tariffs. Running a bit behind its usual tempo, the high court has yet to release an opinion in an argued case from this term. The administration’s view of what constitutes an “emergency” and the justices’ view also seem to have diverged.

The last time SCOTUS put a big rush on a case, over the TikTok ban, Trump essentially blew off the quick-turnaround ruling. And the justices just took more than two months to hand Trump a loss on his efforts to deploy the National Guard to quell immigration protests in Illinois.

Trump hasn’t let the lull in action go to waste, though. He’s been turning up the heat on the justices via hyperbolic social media posts billing the forthcoming tariffs ruling the court’s “most important (ever!) Decision” and warning that a defeat for his signature policy would be “the biggest threat in history to United States National Security.”

BEST OF THE REST

FOR YOUR RADAR: As federal authorities and local officials navigate the fallout from the deadly shooting by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, Minnesota, two people were shot by Border Patrol agents yesterday afternoon in Portland, Oregon, in a shooting that DHS is characterizing as self-defense against a person suspected to be a member of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang, per The Oregonian. There is an FBI investigation underway. Portland Mayor Keith Wilson called on the government to pause immigration enforcement actions pending an investigation of the shooting, per POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and Natalie Fertig.

**The latest in Minneapolis: **Tensions are high and protests across the city continued last night, as the death of Renee Nicole Good, 37, has “poured gasoline on an already contentious standoff between local and federal officials,” staff at the Minneapolis Star-Tribune write. The immigration enforcement operation remains underway across the state. Minnesota Gov. **Tim Walz **has activated the National Guard “out of an abundance of caution.” Walz has also ordered a “day of unity” and a moment of silence for Good at 10 a.m. today.

**Big reads: **“Minneapolis mayor again thrust into the national spotlight over shooting,” by POLITICO’s Liz Crampton … “Legal Hurdles Likely to Stymie State Charges in Minnesota ICE Shooting Case,” by NYT’s Julie Bosman … “ICE Shooting Plunges Minneapolis Into Crisis That Feels All Too Familiar,” by WSJ’s Joe Barrett

ON THE HILL: Trump suffered a rare defeat in Congress yesterday, with five GOP senators backing an effort to constrain further military action in Venezuela, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and colleagues report. Trump called for the Republicans who broke with him to “never be elected to office again” on Truth Social. Over in the House, though, Republicans dashed the idea that GOP lawmakers are bucking Trump en masse. House Republicans sided with Trump voting to not overturn his vetoes on two bills, POLITICO’s Timothy Cama and Meredith report. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), who sponsored one of the bills, had some choice words of her own after the votes: “Folks are afraid of getting a mean tweet or attacked.”

On the Obamacare vote: 17 Republicans joined Democrats to revive the expired ACA subsidies with a three-year extension, a number of defections that exceeded expectations and flew against the wishes of GOP leaders, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Simon Levien write. The 17 lawmakers hailed largely from competitive districts with large numbers of people enrolled in Obamacare plans — a sign that the spiking insurance premiums are viewed as a big electoral threat. The House bill is unlikely to see much support in the Senate, but may create a pathway for a compromise. More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress

ELSEWHERE ON THE HILL: The House easily passed a suite of spending bills yesterday that gets them closer to funding the government head of the Jan. 30 deadline, POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus reports. But it did take some muscling from Johnson this week, who whipped in real-time after GOP hardliners mounted opposition to the procedural vote. … The Senate unanimously approved a measure to display the plaque commemorating officers who protected the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, per POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs. … Senate Majority Leader **John Thune **and other GOP senators will visit the Southern border today.

FRAUD FILES: In the press briefing yesterday, Vance announced that the DOJ is creating a high-ranking position to investigate fraud across the country, with the office based in the White House and answering directly to Trump, NYT’s Alan Feuer reports. “While Mr. Vance specified only that the person occupying the newly established job would go after ‘people who are defrauding the United States,’ said its creation had stemmed from recent allegations in Minnesota of fraud in the day care industry, which, he insisted without offering evidence, was also taking place in other states like Ohio and California.”

**WEAPONIZATION WATCH: **“Prosecutors Said to Pursue New Investigation of Letitia James,” by NYT’s Devlin Barrett and Jonah Bromwich: “Federal prosecutors are investigating financial transactions involving the New York attorney general, Letitia James, and her longtime hairdresser, opening a new front in their pursuit of one of President Trump’s perceived enemies … The new investigation, like the one into her Norfolk home, has been pushed by Edward R. Martin Jr.”

**RISE OF THE RESISTANCE: **“California, New York and other blue states to sue Trump over $10B cut to welfare funding,” by POLITICO’s Rachel Bluth: “California and four other Democrat-run states are planning to sue the Trump administration over $10 billion in cuts to welfare programs. California Attorney General **Rob Bonta **told POLITICO he and attorneys general for New York, Colorado, Minnesota, and Illinois will file a lawsuit on Thursday to challenge the funding freeze announced earlier this week by Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services.”

**CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’: **As California Gov. Gavin Newsom gave his final “State of the State” address yesterday, it was evident that his ambitions beyond the state and hopes of a potential presidential run may hinge on how well he can sell his state’s image, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason writes. It’s a forecast of his 2028 strategy, where he wants his California background to work for him rather than against him.

**ON THE GOP’S BUCKET LIST: **“House GOP prioritizes Trump’s changes to showerheads,” by WaPo’s Dan Diamond and JM Rieger: “House Republicans are hoping to soon deliver a win for President Donald Trump’s agenda — or at least his hair — by voting to codify his long-desired showerhead changes into law, one of their top priorities of the new session. … The Shower Act, written by Rep. Russell Fry (R-South Carolina), is poised to be the first bill passed by the House this year.”

WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING: The Midcoast Villager’s Jesse Ellison has an in-depth look at the fertility journey of Amy Gertner, who came face-to-face with the exorbitantly expensive cost of IVF treatment and is now traveling to Norway with her husband for the treatment at a quarter of the price. Her husband? Senate candidate Graham Platner. “So with Gertner turning 40 this month, and time being of the essence, their quest to start a family is now part of the campaign, too.”

THE WEEKEND AHEAD

FRIDAY PROGRAMS …

C-SPAN** “Ceasefire”:** Kate Bedingfield and Scott Jennings … John Ullyot and Jonathan Kott.

PBS** “Washington Week”:** Peter Baker, Susan Glasser, Stephen Hayes and Vivian Salama.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

ABC** “This Week”:** Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) … Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). **Panel: **Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Susan Glasser and David Sanger.

FOX** “Fox News Sunday”:** Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Panel: John Ashbrook, Annie Linskey, Roger Zakheim and Juan Williams.

NBC** “Meet the Press”:** Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). **Panel: **Monica Alba, Jamelle Bouie, Stephen Hayes and Jonathan Martin.

CBS** “Face the Nation”:** Energy Secretary Chris Wright … Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.).

CNN** “State of the Union”:** Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey … Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.).

Fox News** “Sunday Morning Futures”:** Reza Pahlavi … Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

MS NOW** “The Weekend”:** Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) ... Texas state Rep. James Talarico … David Hogg … Jacob Soboroff.

NewsNation** “The Hill Sunday”:** Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Va.). Panel: George Will, Burgess Everett and Paul Kane.

IN MEMORIAM — David Mitchell, a founding partner of GMMB, died on Jan. 2. Mitchell “believed communications could do more than persuade, it could improve lives. He helped shape this firm around the idea that lasting progress comes from bringing research, policy, and storytelling together in service of people. We honor David’s legacy by continuing the work he devoted his life to, fighting for what matters, and leaving the world better than we found it,” GMMB leadership said in a statement.

**EXTREME MAKEOVER: WHITE HOUSE EDITION — **The architecture firm running Trump’s White House ballroom construction revealed the details of the project for the first time yesterday. The details: The space will be 89,000 square feet in total, including the first lady’s offices and a movie theater. The team ditched plans to make the ballroom bigger, so the banquet itself will be 22,000 square feet (which is still a lot). The project’s architect also said they’re considering adding a one-story addition to the West Wing colonnade for “symmetry.” The project will also match the exact height of the White House when completed.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR — Melania Trump’s documentary will debut at the Kennedy Center on Thursday, Jan. 29.

**MEDIAWATCH — **“The Shadow Over ‘60’” by Status’ Oliver Darcy: “As Sharyn Alfonsi’s ‘60 Minutes’ report remains shelved, Status has learned that an **Anderson Cooper **piece is also caught in a prolonged editorial review process, frustrating the veteran producer attached to the story.”

**MEDIA MOVE — Victoria Knight **will be a senior health care policy reporter at Bloomberg Government. She previously worked at Axios.

TRANSITIONS — James Conlon has joined PFLAG National as VP of development & philanthropic partnerships. He previously worked at the DNC.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Linda Greenhouse … Brooke Brower … Pamela Walsh … Sarah Jackson-Han … Fred Wertheimer … Don Kent and **Luke Holland **of the Nickles Group … **Tasha Hendershot **… Jodi Sakol … Deana Bass Williams … Dan Black … Meta’s Diana Doukas … Colin Campbell … Sam Arora … Joe Onek of Raben … former Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) … Al Felzenberg … former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin … **Tim Punke **of Monument Advocacy … Raman Kaur of the American Institute for Boys and Men … American Institute for Economic Research’s **William Ruger **… **Scott Dacey **of Pace Government Relations … **Richard Fowler **… **Raghu Manavalan … Ron Castleman … PBS’ Kristin Lehner … Peter Edelman of Georgetown Law … Northeastern’s Jesse Poon **… Ben Cowlishaw of the Herald Group … **Larry Sandigo **… **Richard Neffson **… Isabelle Solomon … Alex Roarty

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