NOAA said on June 11 that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific, and its latest outlook put the chance of a “very strong” event between November 2026 and January 2027 at 63%. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño active on Tuesday after sea surface temperatures crossed thresholds and atmospheric indicators aligned with the pattern, saying around half of its models put the event near the highest levels observed since 1950. Satellite observations tracked the shif...

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