Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models (opens in new tab)

The task-completion time horizon is the task duration (measured by human expert completion time) at which an AI agent is predicted to succeed with a given level of reliability. For example, the 50%-time horizon is the duration at which an agent is predicted to succeed half the time. The graph below shows the 50%- and 80%-time horizons for frontier AI agents, calculated using their performance on over a hundred diverse software tasks.