New York is coming closer to joining the great redistricting wars of 2026 – but the blue state’s foray is still a long shot, experts said.

Several states, including California and Texas, have already redrawn their maps in an arms race started by Republicans at President Donald Trump’s urging. New York lawmakers say a recent court order adds new fuel to their push to change the state’s redistricting process, but observers said they’re unsure it will result in any changes to the political map before November.

“New York is a small piece of the national picture. A very small piece,” said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for The Cook Political Report. “But it is the difference of a seat. I remain skeptical that the map will change, but the chances are now higher than they were.”

State Supreme Court Justice Jeffrey Pearlman last week ruled that the boundaries of U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ district unlawfully dilute the political power of Black and Latino voters on Staten Island’s North Shore.

Pearlman ordered the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission to produce a new map by Feb. 6. Douglas Breakell, the co-executive director of the commission — whose members are appointed by Republican and Democratic legislative leaders — said it “must comply,” but that the timing would be a “challenge.”

The New York State Constitution only allows redistricting once every 10 years, after the release of a new U.S. Census. Democrats who control New York’s state government have said they wanted to restart the process to join the national redistricting race, and the case that prompted Pearlman’s order was filed by a prominent Democratic law firm.

The plaintiffs suggested uniting Staten Island and Lower Manhattan, which would eat into the district represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Goldman. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, said the ruling was “the first step toward ensuring communities of interest remain intact from Staten Island to Lower Manhattan.”

Malliotakis, a Republican, said she would appeal the decision.

“The district is perfectly drawn the way it is,” she said. “These gerrymandering attempts, whether it’s here in New York or whether it’s a state like Texas where Republicans are doing it – it is wrong and it is taking away the voice of the people.”

Mid-decade redistricting is underway in four other states,according to NPR. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has called for new maps that could change up to five seats in the GOP’s favor. Democrats in Virginia took an initial step toward reopening their map, pending a public vote later this year.

Wasserman said both states could result in more significant swings — but the changes could also offset one another. If the effort in New York is successful, he said, it could give Democrats a boost in a seat that Malliotakis has held since 2021.

But he and other observers said it’s a big “if.” The state Legislature must ratify maps approved by the Independent Redistricting Commission, if the commission can even agree upon new lines. And those new maps might then be subject to state and federal court challenges.

“The problem they’re going to have with drawing any kind of a map is that they’re doing it for purely partisan purposes, and that violates our constitution,” said George Winner, a former state senator who was previously appointed by Republicans to sit on the Independent Redistricting Commission.

The ruling has resurfaced redistricting as an issue in the state legislative session that began earlier this month. Assemblymember Micah Lasher, an Upper West Side Democrat, is sponsoring a bill to amend the state constitution to allow for mid-decade redistricting.

“While both the court decision and the constitutional amendment proposal deal with redistricting one does not obviate the other,” Lasher said. “There are many different aspects to the question of how you handle a potential mid-decade redistricting, and we are going to have to think very carefully about them.”

Lasher said he believed his bill would be amended but declined to talk specifically about which potential changes he supported and opposed.

Gov. Kathy Hochul has previously said she wants to get rid of the Independent Redistricting Commission so that New York could join other states in drawing more partisan lines. The governor said Thursday that she had confidence in the legal system and would let the case play out.

A spokesperson for state Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said Democrats are still discussing the issue and “figuring out the best step forward.”

A spokesperson for Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie declined to comment.

Citizens Union Executive Director Grace Rauh said voters need certainty as quickly as possible. While the general elections are in November, candidates for office need to start circulating nominating petitions in late February.

She warned against changing the state’s redistricting process, and said she is wary that the court case could force congressional primaries to a separate date over the summer.

“A split primary election would really have a detrimental impact on voter participation. And just add unnecessary complexity,” she said. “Speed is of the essence.”