A new study from the Germany-based Kiel Institute analyzing roughly $4 trillion in U.S. import shipments from January 2024 through November 2025 concludes that U.S. buyers—not foreign exporters—absorbed nearly all of the cost of President Trump’s broad 2025 tariff regime. The researchers estimate foreign exporters absorbed only a small share of the burden, with the rest passed through via higher effective costs for American importers and consumers. The study says the resulting jump in U.S. customs revenue in 2025 functioned like a tax paid largely domestically, challenging the administration’s message that other countries would pay.

Highlights:

• What was studied: The Kiel Institute paper examined detailed shipment-level data covering about $4 trillion in imports over the January 2024–November 2025 period to estimate how tariff costs were split between exporters and U.S. buyers.
• Tariff design: President Trump’s "Liberation Day" rollout on April 2, 2025 included a baseline 10% tariff on nearly all imports, plus higher country-specific rates and sector tariffs on autos, steel, and aluminum, followed by additional tariff announcements later in the year.
• Country examples: In cases like Brazil and India—where tariffs rose sharply in August 2025—the study found exporters did not broadly "eat" the duties, instead adjusting pricing or shipment behavior.
• Revenue mechanics: The study attributes roughly a $200 billion increase in U.S. customs revenue in 2025 to the tariff regime, characterizing it as revenue raised primarily from domestic payers rather than foreign firms.
• Policy messaging gap: Multiple write-ups highlight the contrast between the study’s findings and President Trump’s repeated public framing that foreign countries would pay the tariffs.

Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to U.S. buyers - Kiel Institute researchers

Perspectives:

• Kiel Institute researchers: Their analysis finds tariff costs are largely passed through to U.S. buyers, with foreign exporters absorbing only a small portion. (Time)
• President Trump and administration messaging: The President has argued that foreign countries pay the levies and that Americans benefit from the policy. (Time)
• Business/market commentators: Commentary coverage emphasizes that importers and consumers typically bear most of the tariff burden, aligning with the study’s conclusions. (Quartz)

Sources:

• Americans aren’t paying for all of Trump’s tariffs — only 96% of them, study finds - Fortune - google.com
• 10 Wednesday AM Reads - ritholtz.com
• Americans, not foreign countries, are paying for Trump tariffs — almost entirely, finds report - firstpost.com
• Americans Are Paying For Trump’s Tariffs, Study Finds - time.com
• Yes, you are paying most of Trump's tariffs. Here are the receipts - qz.com