S&P Global is warning that the world could run short of copper by 2040, with a projected deficit of more than 10 million metric tons as electrification accelerates. The research ties rising demand to the energy transition and to fast-growing electricity-hungry uses such as AI data centres, defense applications, and robotics. S&P argues the gap could create “systemic risk” for economies because copper is a core input for power grids, electric vehicles, and other infrastructure needed for growth and decarbonisation.

Highlights:

• Scale of gap: S&P frames the projected shortfall as roughly equal to nearly one-third of today’s global copper demand, underscoring how hard it could be for mining and recycling to keep pace.
• Demand accelerators: Beyond EVs and renewables, S&P highlights AI and defense as additional demand drivers, and says these trends could lift copper consumption by about 50% by 2040.
• Risk framing: The “systemic risk” label reflects S&P’s view that copper constraints can ripple into wider macroeconomic outcomes by slowing buildouts of electricity networks and electrified industry.
• Market signal: By quantifying a long-dated deficit, S&P’s work provides a clearer planning signal for miners, manufacturers, and policymakers to coordinate new supply, permitting, and substitution efforts earlier rather than later.

Perspectives:

• S&P Global: It forecasts a large copper supply deficit by 2040 and warns shortages could become a systemic risk to the global economy as electrification and new technologies raise demand. (Financial Times)
• Technology and industrial demand outlook (as described in reporting): Coverage emphasizes that data centres, defense, and robotics—alongside AI growth—could materially add to copper consumption over the next decade-plus. (Firstpost)

Sources:

• S&P Global Warns Copper Deficit Could Hit 10 Million Tons By 2040 As Energy Transition Drives Demand, Sparking 'Systemic Risks' - benzinga.com
• Big copper shortage to pose ‘systemic risk’ to global economies, warns S&P - ft.com
• AI and defense boom could push copper demand 50% by 2040, supply shortfall looms: S&P - seekingalpha.com
• Copper crunch ahead: AI boom set to push demand 50% higher by 2040 - firstpost.com