Chinese exports to African markets are projected to exceed $200bn in 2025, down from a record $295.6bn last year, according to trend-based estimates drawn from Chinese customs data, highlighting Beijing’s growing commercial footprint across the continent amid prolonged trade tensions with the United States under the Trump Administration’s expanded tariff regime.

China exported $122bn in goods to Africa in the first eight months of 2025, led by machinery, heavy equipment, automobiles and metal products. If current flows continue, customs projections indicate exports could pass the $200bn mark by year-end. African shipments to China rose 2.3% year on year to $87bn over the same period, widening the continent’s trade deficit with China to nearly $60bn.

The record $295.6bn in bilateral trade achieved in 2024 marked the fourth consecutive annual increase, driven by Chinese exporters diversifying away from US-exposed markets and African governments deepening supply-chain links with Chinese firms.

Apart from US tariffs imposed on China, accelerating the trend in rising bilateral trade with Africa is the expiry on September 30 of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has been the cornerstone of US-Africa trade since its passage in 2000. Providing tariff-free access for more than 1,800 products from 32 eligible sub-Saharan African economies, AGOA has enabled nearly $500bn in exports to the United States from 2002 to 2022.

US–China tariff tensions have increased Africa’s attractiveness as a low-tariff sourcing base, which is one reason AGOA renewal is being heavily lobbied for by African governments, US retailers, apparel industry groups, and the US Chamber of Commerce Africa Business Center.

“The Trump administration has signalled support for a one-year extension, but minimal progress has been made […] and without a breakthrough in Congress, the future of U.S.-Africa trade looks increasingly uncertain,” the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) writes. “Meanwhile, China has emerged as Africa’s leading commercial partner, securing energy resources and critical inputs through expansive trade and investment ties.”

In its 2025 flagship report African Trade in a Changing Global Financial Architecture, Afreximbank argues that while Africa’s trade volumes with China and globally remain substantial, the continent faces structural challenges — including a recurring “trade-finance gap” (estimated at around $100bn annually), exchange-rate volatility, regulatory disharmony and limited manufacturing capacity — which restrict the ability to leverage trade for industrial transformation.

“Africa remains at a pivotal crossroads. Global financial shifts redraw the map of trade and investment — but the continent must lead in reconfiguring its trade-finance and industrial architecture,” said the pan-African supranational financial institution, under the auspices of the African Development Bank.

Afreximbank called for “bold reconfiguration of financial and trade systems”, including stronger regional financial institutions, modern trade-finance tools, and greater intra-African trade integration under frameworks such as African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), as a long-term strategy to avoid dependence on raw-commodity exports and manage vulnerabilities associated with commodity cycles.

Strong regional demand patterns in Africa have reinforced the rising bilateral trade momentum despite uneven industrial capacity across the continent.

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has emerged as one of the fastest-growing trade corridors for Chinese exporters. Import flows into Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Benin are dominated by machinery, construction equipment, low-voltage electrical goods and consumer electronics, reflecting extensive infrastructure programmes.

WAEMU’s exports to China remain concentrated in cocoa, cashew, cotton and manganese, leaving the region structurally dependent on manufactured imports and sustaining a sizeable trade imbalance.

“Trade openness can catalyse growth — but without investment in infrastructure, skills and governance, external engagements risk reinforcing dependency rather than delivering transformation,” the Brookings Institution cautioned in its Foresight Africa 2025–2030 report, noting China has been a major financer and builder of infrastructure projects across the continent.

The East African Community (EAC), which has benefited from Chinese-built railways and highways in recent decades, has also seen robust expansion, led by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Chinese goods entering the bloc consist mainly of transport equipment, industrial machinery and manufactured products for construction and housing.

The EAC’s exports to China include copper, titanium ores, coffee and agricultural commodities, though limited processing capacity continues to constrain the development of value-added export streams even under preferential tariff regimes.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) meanwhile remains the highest-value corridor in Africa–China trade due to the weight of mineral exporters. South Africa, Angola, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) account for most of Africa’s shipments to China, primarily in iron ore, copper, cobalt and hydrocarbons.

China’s exports to SADC include vehicles, steel products, machinery and chemicals, reflecting strong industrial demand across mining and manufacturing hubs. Despite the scale of two-way trade, SADC still runs a persistent deficit given the high import content embedded in its energy and mining supply chains.

China expanded its zero-tariff programme for least-developed countries in 2025, covering most tariff lines for eligible African states maintaining diplomatic relations with Beijing. The framework, part of a wider 53-country global scheme, includes many African LDCs but does not apply universally across the continent. The initiative aims to boost African competitiveness, though its effectiveness will hinge on domestic industrial capacity, logistics performance and compliance with Chinese market standards.

Economists note that the trade patterns across WAEMU, the EAC and SADC reinforce Africa’s dependence on commodity exports and Chinese manufactured imports. While overall volumes continue to climb, structural imbalances remain deeply rooted, and without broader diversification in production and export capacity, Africa’s deficit with China is unlikely to narrow meaningfully despite tariff preferences and sustained bilateral demand.

In a June 2025 commentary titled Africa–China trade: openness without industry, ISS Africa argued that “heavy reliance on Chinese imports and weak global value-chain linkages are stalling Africa’s industrialisation.” The piece warns that while trade openness has benefits — such as access to goods and industrial inputs — indiscriminate openness without local processing or industrial upgrading may undermine long-term growth prospects for African economies.

ISS Africa stresses that many African countries remain “locked” into exporting raw materials and importing finished goods, limiting their ability to climb the value chain even as import flows swell.