Stylized depiction of the feedback between natural and social systems in the FeliX model that determine human well-being as measured by YoGL. A link with a positive (negative) sign represents a positive (negative) relationship, where a change in the cause variable leads to a change in the effect variable in the same (opposite) direction. Note that not all relationships are depicted in this figure, such as those between economic output and life expectancy. Credit: Global Sustainability (2025). DOI: 10.1017/sus.2025.10042

A new study by IIASA researchers offers a pioneering way to understand how climate change affects people’s lives over the long term. Using a global model and the Years of Good Life (YoGL) metric, the research shows that today’s emissions shape future well-being, especially for younger generations.

Human well-being is increasingly recognized as a better benchmark for sustainable development than GDP. Yet, while GDP is losing its prominence as a measure of well-being, climate impacts are still mostly assessed in monetary terms, most notably through the social cost of carbon, which is based solely on economic damage. The study, titled "Well-being cost of carbon" and published in Global Sustainability, takes an important step toward measuring climate impacts in terms that matter directly to people by shifting the focus from economic output to human well-being itself.

Linking climate, society, and human well-being

Using a global systems model together with the Years of Good Life (YoGL) indicator developed at IIASA, the researchers show how climate change, economic development, and social conditions combined shape long-term human well-being. Years of Good Life measures how many years individuals can expect to live in good physical and cognitive health, above poverty, and with overall life satisfaction.

By explicitly modeling feedbacks between natural, human, and economic capital and Years of Good Life, the analysis provides the first quantitative estimation of the core equation of sustainability science using an empirically grounded and intuitive well-being metric, going well beyond earlier approaches that could not clearly trace how environmental change affects well-being over time.

Key results: Up to 11.3 years of good life at stake

The results show that strong climate action could increase individual well-being by up to 10.4 Years of Good Life on average, while high-emissions pathways could reduce lifetime well-being by as much as 11.3 years. Younger generations face the highest marginal well-being losses from today’s emissions, highlighting pronounced intergenerational inequities. The analysis also reveals gender differences, with men experiencing higher marginal well-being losses per unit of carbon emitted, despite women often having lower overall well-being levels.

"Our study demonstrates that well-being can be modeled in a forward-looking and integrated way, capturing the links between climate change, the economy, and social development," says study author and IIASA Senior Research Scholar, Sibel Eker. "For policymakers, the approach offers a way to compare climate and development pathways, with human well-being—not just economic output—at the center of decision-making."

"For the first time, we can quantify how changes in climate and other forms of natural, human or economic capital translate into gains or losses in human well-being across generations and genders. It is time to think about the well-being cost of carbon instead of focusing only on economic costs, because what ultimately matters is how today’s emissions shape the quality of life of future generations," concludes IIASA Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar and co-author, Wolfgang Lutz.

More information

Sibel Eker et al, Wellbeing cost of carbon, Global Sustainability (2025). DOI: 10.1017/sus.2025.10042

Citation: Rethinking climate impacts through human well-being (2026, January 15) retrieved 15 January 2026 from https://phys.org/news/2026-01-rethinking-climate-impacts-human.html

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