Summary
- Incyte Corporation’s rapid non-Jakafi portfolio growth and strong operating leverage look decent amid still-cheap valuation, supporting a…
Summary
- Incyte Corporation’s rapid non-Jakafi portfolio growth and strong operating leverage look decent amid still-cheap valuation, supporting attractive risk-reward over the coming quarters ahead.
- Q3 revenue beat consensus by 9%, with Jakafi still 58% of sales as rapidly expanding Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, and Zynyz materially de-risking concentration on Jakafi.
- Management guides for flat OpEx and rising revenues into FY2025, supporting sustained margin expansion and robust EPS growth potential post-2029.
- Valuation remains attractive at under 15x forward P/E, with technical and fundamental momentum likely to persist if execution continues.
- My calculations show an upside of about 32%. INCY is a "Buy"
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My "Buy" Thesis On Incyte Stock
Incyte Corporation (INCY) has a market cap of ~$20 billion, although it’s not a widely known stock to the general public (or at least I wasn’t familiar with it before
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Quick Insights
INCY is rapidly expanding its non-Jakafi portfolio, targeting that by 2029, core business excluding Jakafi could match Jakafi’s peak size, supported by Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, and Zynyz.
With flat OpEx guidance and rising revenue, INCY expects further margin expansion in Q4 and FY2026, targeting a 15–20% five-year EPS CAGR post-2029, with upside if pipeline monetization exceeds expectations.
Execution risk beyond Jakafi is significant; slower-than-expected ramp in new drugs or competitive shifts could create an earnings gap post-2028 despite current momentum.