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Made in China

Rising tariffs and geopolitical trade tensions don’t seem to have made a dent in the dominant Chinese manufacturing powerhouse. The country’s trade surplus with the world for 2025 just crossed the $1T milestone, highlighting the resilience of supply chains and the rerouting of shipments to new markets. It all means that the value of goods China sells to the globe (exports) has significantly outstripped the value of the goods it buys (imports), cementing its status as the biggest factory on the planet.

Bigger picture: While many companies attempted to front-run President Trump’s hefty tariffs on China earlier this year, export volumes from China have continued to soar while its imports have largely flatlined amid weak domestic demand. The export-led industrial policy has even resulted in Chinese goods flooding global markets, ranging from cheap electric vehicles and advanced machinery to AliExpress and Temu. It has also prompted Goldman Sachs to forecast China expanding by an additional 0.6 percentage points annually in the coming years, which would reduce the rest of the world’s growth.

As China continues to capture the purchasing power of foreign economies, a new era of protectionism has risen, which has resulted in tariffs and trade conflicts. That’s especially true for critical industries or ones that threaten national security, but also for self-sufficiency and manufacturing as a whole. Things could continue unless a broader united front is achieved, but trust is a hard commodity these days, and any mechanisms would need to be reliable and verifiable.

Outlook: While there has been agitation over job losses and factory closures in the U.S. as manufacturing moved abroad, the picture also might not be as rosy in China as some would expect. Beijing’s export revenue model can be a good cushion in the short term, but if things are left unbalanced, it can be damaging for its economy in the long term. Examples include prioritization of production over household consumption, weighty subsidies that can eventually undermine domestic industries, or developments like a global recession that can result in demand shocks. (12 comments)

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**In Asia, ** Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong -1.3%. China -0.4%. India -0.5%. **In Europe, at midday, ** London +0.1%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt +0.3%. **Futures at 6:30, ** Dow +0.1%. S&P flat. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude +0.2% to $58.98. Gold +0.4% to $4,233.80. Bitcoin -1.8% to $90,262. **Ten-year Treasury Yield **unchanged at 4.16%.

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