Violent competition between drug cartels is increasing the dangers migrants face along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to new research from the University of California, Davis.

The study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Social Forces, found that spikes in cartel violence push migrants toward more dangerous crossing points, increasing the risks of injury or death.

“Migrants face significant dangers across all border regions where criminal organizations operate, but when rival groups fight for territorial control, those dangers escalate sharply,” said Oscar Contreras-Velasco, the study’s author and an assistant professor of sociology at UC Davis.

The study examined Mexican government gun violence data, U.S. border enforcement records, news reports and nearly 5,000 migrant survey responses. Researchers analyzed how conflicts among criminal groups shape migrant risks in smuggling corridors near 23 Mexican cities from 2015 to 2019.

A machine learning algorithm found that cities along the Texas stretch of the border carry higher risk scores than those in the western region, which includes New Mexico, Arizona and California.

While migrants face danger wherever criminal groups operate, those risks soar when cartels battle for control. Migrants are more likely to be extorted, assaulted, abandoned or forced into harsher, deadlier terrain to avoid conflict zones.

Survey data from 4,945 migrants highlights the threats they encountered on their journey north:

• 1,449 endured extreme temperatures
• 676 were abandoned by smugglers
• 887 lacked access to food or water
• 419 became lost
• 358 risked falling from cliffs or hills
• 238 faced drowning hazards
• 188 were attacked by animals
• 155 were physically assaulted

To measure cartel conflict, the study used male homicide rates as a proxy, noting that men make up the vast majority of victims in turf wars. Spikes in those rates effectively signal rising clashes among criminal organizations where direct data is unavailable.

The research also found that stronger U.S. border enforcement — measured by encounters between U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and migrants — affects both the central power of local criminal organizations and migrant routes.

Tighter security forces migrants to rely more heavily on smugglers, turning migration into a profitable business for cartels and intensifying the violence that puts migrants at risk.

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