🚨 The LBMA “Silver Surge”: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Over the past three months, LBMA claims its silver vaults have suddenly gained 83.7 million ounces. That’s 2,600 metric tons.

To put this in perspective: That is the equivalent of two large silver mines magically appearing — without a single miner, refinery, or logistics company noticing.

In real commodity markets, that simply does not happen.

Below is what the data actually tells us.

https://x.com/honzacern1/status/1997449391418769423

**

1. Such a massive “increase in inventories” is statistically impossible

83.7 million ounces is not a rounding error. It’s a global-scale event — the kind that would hit mining news, industrial procurement channels, and bullion trade desks everywhere.

Yet the global market saw zero corresponding physical flows.

When numbers leap like this without real-world evidence, it’s not supply — it’s accounting. **

2. The physical market shows the exact opposite trend

While LBMA vaults supposedly ballooned:

SGE inventories continue to fall by tens of tonnes per week

India is importing record volumes of silver

The US Mint is struggling to source blanks

Industrial users report shortages of high-purity silver

A real surplus would ease physical stress across all these channels.

Instead, physical supply is tightening globally. **

3. The only place where “new silver” appears is on spreadsheets

No new mega-mine. No major liquidation of industrial stockpiles. No visible inflow through trade ports.

The only source of LBMA’s inventory jump is… Excel cells. That alone is a message. **

4. LBMA is smoothing the numbers to project stability

When real metal flows leave the West and move to the East, Western institutions need to maintain the appearance of abundance.

If physical silver drains out of London and into Shanghai, the only way to offset it is through paper adjustments.

It’s a pattern: When physical tightens, the accounting “loosens.” **

5. The key point: Institutions don’t massage numbers when markets are healthy

Stable markets don’t require narrative management. Only stressed markets do.

And historically, institutions begin “adjusting” inventory data right before major structural shifts become impossible to hide.

In other words:

When the physical market tightens, the spreadsheet market becomes creative.

And when the spreadsheet market becomes creative, a real squeeze is approaching.

#Silver #SilverSqueeze #LBMA **

@threadreaderapp unroll **

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh