During this interview, Trevor graciously asked JP from $PEY.to a question about decline rates.
This is an important and telling thread for many reasons, including misinformation on X and the truth about resource plays.
Buckle up 🧵 1/x
**
Here’s the question:
“Why is Peyto’s decline rates higher than your peers (if that’s the case)?
Trevor followed, “I don’t think it is”
And JP responds, “I don’t think it is either so I don’t know how to answer that”
In short JP said… What the hell is he talking about? 3/x **
JP then explains how Peyto has a 10 yr PDP reserve life index and concludes, “so I wouldn’t consider our decline rates higher.”
(For ref. -…
During this interview, Trevor graciously asked JP from $PEY.to a question about decline rates.
This is an important and telling thread for many reasons, including misinformation on X and the truth about resource plays.
Buckle up 🧵 1/x
**
Here’s the question:
“Why is Peyto’s decline rates higher than your peers (if that’s the case)?
Trevor followed, “I don’t think it is”
And JP responds, “I don’t think it is either so I don’t know how to answer that”
In short JP said… What the hell is he talking about? 3/x **
JP then explains how Peyto has a 10 yr PDP reserve life index and concludes, “so I wouldn’t consider our decline rates higher.”
(For ref. - $TOU 6 yrs & $ARX 4 yrs PDP RLI)
He ends by says Peyto is also transparent, the decline rate is in the corporate presentation. 😂 4/x **
Here is the slide in the $PEY.to corp deck.
Decline rate of 27% in 2024 and expected decline rate of 26-28% in 2025-2027 5/x **
So how does this compare to other NG peers?
Here is the data from Peter’s & Co: BIR = 25% PEY = 27% TOU = 33% ARX = 35% NVA = 40%
This is remarkable. Far from having a high decline rate, Peyto actually has a very low decline rate.
But that’s not all, let’s continue 🫡 6/x **
Mike Rose from In the Money Podcast, on the Montney:
“…you have to replace a third (33%) or your production every year”
And, “...the gas business with resource plays, it’s a treadmill and it’s a REALLY BIG TREADMILL and it GOES REALLY FAST.” (Added emphasis)
7/x **
John Dielwart - Arc Resources on the Montney:
“…resource plays are great, but the average decline rate is HIGH”
“You could go and drill a bunch of Montney wells that decline 50-60% in the first year, but THE TREADMILL THAT YOUR ON spending capital to SUSTAIN the business" 8/x **
John Dielwart continues…
“…an important part of our business strategy was not drilling the Montney so fast that it put on this treadmill of 35-40% first year declines” 😮 😮 😮
This might explain why so many are bullish OFS...😂 9/x **
So Peyto doesn’t have a high decline rate, unlike others.
High decline rate = High CAPEX Low decline rate = Low CAPEX
So while some enjoy the treadmill, the $PEY.to camp prefers: ✅Lower declines ✅Profitable growth ✅High FCF ✅More dividends
Have a great weekend! /end **
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