🚨Make Europe Antifragile NOW !
➡️Antifragility of Europe supports Ukraine’s quest to survive.
➡️Adapt to an age of unpeace and lost civilisation from the unstable neo-liberal experiments.
➡️And become a respected global actor again built on social innovation.
.ht @leopricon
**
2\🧵 The alternative for MEAN, Make Europe Antifragile Again, is:
🔸️Unpeace and loss of civilisation
🔸️Declining trust
🔸️Tremendously rising failure costs.
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1996707920298307681?t=zKaxKwzdB5Pll4pQYoKgdg&s=19
**
3\🧵 Bear in Mind we are near the geopolitically likely "shocks-and-shifts" scenar…
🚨Make Europe Antifragile NOW !
➡️Antifragility of Europe supports Ukraine’s quest to survive.
➡️Adapt to an age of unpeace and lost civilisation from the unstable neo-liberal experiments.
➡️And become a respected global actor again built on social innovation.
.ht @leopricon
**
2\🧵 The alternative for MEAN, Make Europe Antifragile Again, is:
🔸️Unpeace and loss of civilisation
🔸️Declining trust
🔸️Tremendously rising failure costs.
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1996707920298307681?t=zKaxKwzdB5Pll4pQYoKgdg&s=19
**
3\🧵 Bear in Mind we are near the geopolitically likely "shocks-and-shifts" scenario with an armed "Europe’s Financial Nuclear Bomb.”
So, next the "Ghost-Is-Out-Of-The-Bottle" scenario is not as unlikely anymore as the US is thinking.
⬇️
https://x.com/World_At_War_6/status/1998343114977681472?t=4y-ZaoPeqA9CWDvZHWEatw&s=19
**
4\🧵 With e.g .ht @ProfSteveKeen we anticipate a cascade of US economic shocks, financial fragility and a recession from:
🔸️Income squeezed consumers turning to unsecured debt
🔸️Trump’s crazy economic interventions
🔸️Bursting of the AI bubble
https://x.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/1998037825996910716?t=y6QNC2RZBSIIPFuNdKr7rg&s=19
**
5\🧵 While Europe’s share of estimated Treasuries is at $2.34 trillion
Europe holds roughly 25-30% of total foreign-held U.S. debt, with Japan and China holding (very) large chunks too. **
6\🧵 So, a potential "Atomic Bomb", would flood the Treasury market with supply, driving down bond prices and forcing sellers (central banks, pension funds) to convert USD into e.g. EURO, spark a strong devaluation of the USD (10-20% or more), and triggering a US capital flight. **
7\🧵 This USD devaluation make US imports (electronics, consumer goods) far pricier overnight and fuel imported inflation. **
8\🧵 US Treasuries’ yields (interest rates) would surge as prices tank, potentially from current ~4-5% levels to 7-10% or higher on longer-dated bonds, based on stress tests. **
9\🧵 With US national debt at $36 trillion, this would balloon annual interest payments from ~$1 trillion today to $2-3 trillion, crowding out govt spending.
Although US can always print dollars, it loses its safe-haven trust. **
10\🧵 Rating agencies might downgrade US credit, further hiking costs in a vicious cycle. **
11\🧵 Higher yields ripple through to everyday borrowing:
🔸️mortgage rates could jump to 8-10%, auto loans to 12%+, and credit card rates even steeper
🔸️Consumer spending crimps, which drives ~70% of US GDP. **
12\🧵 Businesses face pricier corporate debt, and will cut expansion and hiring, amplifying slowdown.
Weaker USD inflates grocery, hit lower-income households hardest and, with a huge and fast increasing mass-disability due to Long COVID, potentially spark social unrest as well. **
13\🧵 The depth of the recession depends on the pace of Europe’s dumping (potentially in tandem with China, Japan and others!) and could contract at 3-5% of GDP in the first year
An aggressive quantitative easing (buying bonds itself) of the Fed risks hyperinflation. **
14\🧵 Unemployment (currently at 4.4% and rising) could spike to 8-10%, stock markets crater 30-50% (?), and global trade seize up if the dollar’s role as "economic lubricant" falters further. **
15\🧵 Recovery might take years, though US energy independence and domestic manufacturing and tech could cushion it somewhat. **
16\🧵 European dumping of treasuries and securities at fire-sale prices would inflict huge losses on pension funds, banks, and governments, potentially bankrupting institutions and spark their own recessions. **
17\🧵 In short, the chain of effects is clear: dollar crash → debt strain → spending drop → recession.
However, Europe’s geopolitical will is the wildcard, although Europe can be pushed to the brink by the US/Russia conspiracy. **
18\🧵 Russia is the first to lose. The US is the most at risk. Europe has to overcome a severe recession/depression. **
19\🧵 What is clear; US appeasement is exit, and antfragility is the name of Europe’s new game.
No more humiliating "Thank you Daddy." Never again! **
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh