Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy.
Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact.
Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree.
LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including:
⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%)
By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for comp…
Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP).
We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy.
Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact.
Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree.
LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including:
⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%)
By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily 🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem 🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution.
🧵Read on for more insights and results
Our LEAP panel is made up of the following experts:
🧑🔬 76 Top computer scientists (e.g., professors from top-20 universities) 🤖 76 AI industry experts (from frontier model and other leading AI companies) 💲 68 Leading economists (including many studying economic growth or technology at top universities) 🧠 119 Policy and think tank experts 🏆 12 Honorees from TIME’s 100 most influential people in AI, in 2023 and 2024
(Plus 60 highly accurate superforecasters and 1,400 members of the U.S. public)
For more details on our sample, see the full reports linked below.
We ask questions designed to elicit high-quality, specific forecasts about the future of AI and its effects. Example questions include:
⚡ What % of US electricity will go towards training and deploying AI systems in 2027, 2030, and 2040?
🏢 What % of work hours will be assisted by generative AI in 2025, 2027, and 2030?
📊 At the end of 2040, how will people assess the impact of AI in comparison to past technological events?
In the first 3 waves of LEAP, we elicited forecasts on 18 questions regarding the future of AI. Wave 1 focused on the speed of AI progress and broad social impacts, Wave 2 on AI’s effect on science, and Wave 3 on AI adoption. For the full set of questions and results, see the reports linked below.