America has just released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Not seeing much press activity from the Dept of Defense/War on this. While I need time to ponder the deeper implications of the document, a few things stand out on first reading. 1/11 🧵 **

2/ First, the document is consistent with the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Trump Administration in November 2025. Key priorities in the NDS align with the NSS, as you would expect. However, while the NSS has priorities, the NDS has "Lines of Effort". whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl… **

3/ There are four Lines of Effort in the new NDS:

1. Defend the U.S. Homeland. 2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation. 3. Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners. 4. Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base. **

4/ In its examination of the security environment, the document is clear that America sees Russia as a mainly (but not solely) European problem, and that America’s interest is to "defend against Russian threats to the U.S. Homeland." The graph below is included to helpfully point out that Europe has the resources to deal with Russia if it choses to. **

5/ On China, the document notes that "although we are and will remain engaged in Europe, we must—and will—prioritize defending the U.S. Homeland and deterring China." It also states the following:

"The NSS directs DoW to maintain a favorable balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific. Not for purposes of dominating, humiliating, or strangling China. To the contrary, our goal is far more scoped and reasonable than that: It is simply to ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies." **

6/ It is hard to know exactly where the Trump administration is headed with China. The document states that America desires "a decent peace." Fair enough. It also states America does not want confrontation.

The problem is, China is already on a war footing with America, and has been executing large-scale cognitive warfare and massive industrial espionage against the Homeland for two decades. These are not mentioned at all in the document.

Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi may give us more insights. **

7/ There is a useful section on the challenges of concurrency for U.S. military forces. This is a reasonable and logical section - America cannot do everything. This is used to build the case for more burden sharing from allies, a consistent theme from this administration. Some of America’s allies have stepped up to this challenge in Europe and Asia. But others have not. **

8/ Interestingly, in the section that discusses increasing burden sharing with allies (Line of Effort 4), almost every region of the world is discussed except the Asia-Pacific region (Korean peninsula has its own section).

A couple of key takeaways from this:

1. America side-steps any discussion about the defence of Taiwan in the strategy. Indeed, Taiwan is not mentioned. It does however commit to erecting "a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain." 2. America has avoided getting into any dust ups with Asia-Pacific allies on their defence spending. This is a shame - too many of us continue to shirk our responsibilities. **

9/ In the strategic environment, there is no mention of the potential threats posed by new technologies. I will need to give this more thought but I thought it was an interesting topic missing from the document. **

10/ Finally, the conclusion makes the following interesting assertion: "Taking our nation from the precipice of a world war just a year ago..."

Did I miss something last year? Or should that have read "a week ago"? **

11/ Overall, the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy does not introduce any surprises. It reinforces the NSS as well as statements by President Trump and other members of the administration over the past year. That said, I will need to read it a few more times. More analysis to follow, from me and many others, in the next day or so! media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/20… **

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More from @WarintheFuture

Jan 11

"The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory." My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in #Ukraine, China’s reaction to Venezuela and more. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)

2/ In events related to #Ukraine this week, the Oreshnik strike absorbed a lot of attention. But this was not an event that demonstrates Russia’s strength. Indeed it showed the opposite. Also, peace talks in Paris took place as did a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing.

3/ In the Pacific, China continues to posture about American operations in Venezuela. While we might like to think that China will practice what it preaches with regards to its statement that “military means are not the solution to problems”, its accelerating use of military coercion and aggression against neighbours shows just how hollow and hypocritical the Xi regime is.

Also this week, Trump discussed Taiwan in his New York Times interview.

Read 5 tweets

Dec 31, 2025

On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the #Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it. 1/8 🧵🇹🇼

2/ Exercise Justice Mission 2025 has taken place at multiple locations around Taiwan. While the maps demonstrate the physical environment of the exercise, the more important exercise “location” is the minds of Taiwanese and foreign observers. But perhaps the most important exercise location is the mind of the U.S. president. (Map: @TaiwanMonitor)

3/ The exercise will have been designed by the Chinese with multiple objectives beyond the normal political coercion of Taiwan. These objectives include: -rehearsing military activities for different Taiwan contingencies, including decapitation operations. -continue developing the skills of the commanders, staff, units and overall command and control of the Eastern Theatre Command. -assess the response of Taiwanese and American political and military systems. -normalise large joint operations around Taiwan.

Read 8 tweets

Dec 29, 2025

Putin can play Trump like a fiddle. But the bigger issue is that Putin has clearly decided that continuing the war in #Ukraine - while keeping Trump on side - is more advantageous to him (for now) than agreeing to any peace deal. This is a deliberate Russian provocation to get Ukraine-haters worked up and undermine the peace process. 1/6 🧵

2/ Putin has wasted no time in making his views on the current 20-point plan clear. He does not like it, but needs to keep Trump from placing more sanctions on Russia. If the current peace plan isn’t dead, it may be on life support. Will Trump hold Putin to account for this however?

3/ And today, Putin held a carefully scripted ‘military update’ with senior military commanders to further shape the minds of decision makers Washington DC, Beijing and elsewhere around Russia’s inevitable victory. The key theme - everything is going well, the enemy (Ukraine) is doing badly and we must continue fighting to ‘liberate the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.

Read 6 tweets

Dec 28, 2025

The much-anticipated summit between the leaders of #Ukraine and America, held at President Trump’s #Mar-a-Largo resort, has just concluded with a press conference. A quick update on outcomes. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦

2/ This is the latest meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy since Trump returned to the White House in early 2025. Some of the meetings did not go well, such as the now-infamous 28 February Oval Office meeting. Others just kicked the can down the road, such as the Alaska Summit.

3/ In the lead up to the meeting, Ukraine released details of a 20-point peace plan that would be discussed with the Trump administration, and then potential presented to the Russians. The draft plan covered multiple subjects, including security guarantees for Ukraine, Ukrainian membership of the EU, reconstruction and territory.

Also, Trump had a 2.5 hour phone conversation with Putin - a call that was as long as today’s main meeting between Ukraine and the US.

Read 15 tweets

Nov 18, 2025

I recently returned from another research visit to #Ukraine, my second for 2025. I have written a new white paper, published by the @CSIS, which explores 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦

2/ The white paper covers a range of subjects related to how #Ukraine and #Russia are fighting this war. The seven insights not only illuminate the state of the war, and the degree of learning and #adaptation occurring, they provide lessons that western military institutions must analyse and heed.

3/ The seven subjects covered are:

1. Drone saturation and Russian drone innovation. 2. The new tactical battle triangle. 3. The ongoing and accelerating adaptation battle. 4. Long-range strike operations. 5. Ground-based air defence. 6. Russia’s tactical and strategic advantages. 7. War strategy and trajectory.

I highlight just a couple of these below.

Read 7 tweets

Nov 14, 2025

Yesterday, my report on the new global adaptation war was published by the @scsp_ai . The report proposes that the learning and adaptation ecosystem spawned by the war in #Ukraine has now metastasised into an international learning and #adaptation competition. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦

2/ As the report describes, in the past three years, Ukraine and Russia have learned and adapted. Both sides have also learned to learn better and to absorb lessons into their military and industrial systems with increasing speed. But the sharing of lessons by both nations has seen the Ukraine Adaptation Battle transform into a global Adaptation War.

3/ A new adversary learning and adaptation bloc has emerged. While not a formal alliance, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have developed a mesh of different agreements and strategic partnerships that have allowed these authoritarian regimes to construct a connected knowledge market on 21st century strategic competition and conflict.

Read 10 tweets