In Q4 2025, the percentage of renewables in Australia’s main electricity market, the NEM, reached 50%, or to be precise, 49.9%. This is the best quarter of the year for renewables’ share because wind and sun are strong, but since it is spring, demand for electricity for air conditioning is low. The average percentage of electricity demand provided by renewables for the whole year was just 42.9%, up from 5.8% in 2008. The percentage of renewables in the NEM is rising by ~3.5% per annum, which means that we’re still 16 years before it provides 100% of demand throughout the year.

All the same, it’s a landmark. In 2008, almost all the renewables provided came from hydro, and the growth of wind power was slow, because in those early days, it was more expensive than coal, especially existing coal power stations. Governments, both state and national, provided high feed-in tariffs for rooftop solar, which in Q4 2025 provided an astonishing 17.6% of total electricity demand, even though subsidies for rooftop solar have now been withdrawn. The rapid growth in rooftop solar led to everybody in the system becoming familiar with it, with the result that soft costs (permitting, etc.) are low. A very successful policy. Rooftop solar in Australia is much cheaper than in the USA because of this factor. Obviously, the panels cost the same, it’s the soft costs which are so high.

The Right has opposed renewables all the way, and even now that renewables are cheaper than even existing coal power stations, still is hostile. For example, Queensland (run by a right-wing party) has banned new wind and solar farms, despite their cost advantage. And at national level, the so-called Liberal Party and the Murdoch press continue to say that high electricity costs are because of renewables–they’re not, they’re because of gas. And they continue to spruik nuclear, which in Australia is entirely unnecessary, and also insanely expensive, more expensive than new coal.

It seemed such a long way to go, back in 2008, and progress was so slow. And yet, we are half-way there! I hope that as solar, wind and batteries continue to drop in price, the transformation of Australia’s electricity grid will accelerate, but here in Australia, as elsewhere, vested interests are doing their damnedest to stop it. But the public knows that installing solar will save them money, and rooftop solar installations continue. Outside Queensland, Labor-controlled states have fairly aggressive renewables targets, driving continued growth in wind and utility-scale solar.

Despite the opposition, we’ll get to 100%, sooner than we got to 50%.

[If you want to play around with the data, you can do so here]