Vehicles bound for shipment parked in front of the Dream Angel vehicles carrier ship at the Nagoya Port in Nagoya, Japan, on Tuesday, June 18, 2024.

Fred Mery | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Japan’s exports growth in the final month of 2025 missed analysts’ estimates, rising 5.1% year on year, as shipments to the U.S. saw a double-digit decline.

Reuters-polled analysts had estimated exports growth would remain unchanged from November at 6.1%.

Japanese exports growth mostly fell during the first half of 2025, hit by U.S. tariff worries, but saw a rebound toward the end of the year after a trade deal with the U.S. was announced that saw duties slashed to 15%.

Exports to the U.S. in December, however, resumed their decline, dropping 11.1%, after an 8.8% jump in the prior month. The gain in November was the first time exports to the U.S. rose since March.

Shipments to mainland China, Japan’s largest trading partner, climbed 5.6%, while exports to Hong Kong surged 31.1% compared to the same period last year. Exports to the wider Asia region gained 10.2%.

Imports in December rose 5.1% year on year, jumping sharply from the 1.3% rise seen in November, and beating Reuters estimates of a 3.6% rise.

For full-year 2025, Japan’s exports rose 3.1%, a softer rise compared to the 6.2% increase seen in 2024, with as shipments to mainland China and the U.S. — Tokyo’s top two trading partners — fell 0.4% and 4.1% respectively.

Exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan climbed 17.8% and 15.1% for the whole year, partially offsetting declines in the U.S. and China.

The trade data comes at a time when Japan is bracing for snap elections on Feb. 8 called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with its Lower House set to be dissolved Friday.

A victory for Takaichi will allow her to push her fiscal agenda through Japan’s parliament with little opposition, analysts have said. It could also involve keeping the yen weak, as it supports Japan’s exports-oriented economy.

Since the announcement of the elections, Japanese markets have been fueled by the so-called "Takaichi trade," that has seen stocks mostly rise, and the yen stay weak.

"[A win] poses the potential for a more expansive fiscal policy after a record draft budget was already approved for the fiscal year starting in April," Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG, said in a note on Monday.

A strong win for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lead to a rally in Japanese equities, but trigger a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and the yen, he added.

The yen, which was around 151 against the dollar when Takaichi took power on Oct. 21 has seen a sharp decline since, hovering around the 158 level currently.