Abstract
Electric vehicles have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, electric vehicles could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles, as industry discontinues conventional production chains. Here we provide evidence that this tipping point has occurred or lies within the next few years in lead markets of the European Union and China, and potentially the United States, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting around 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of electric vehicles. Critically, we observe a loss of resilience of the incumbent technol…
Abstract
Electric vehicles have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity. Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, electric vehicles could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles, as industry discontinues conventional production chains. Here we provide evidence that this tipping point has occurred or lies within the next few years in lead markets of the European Union and China, and potentially the United States, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting around 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of electric vehicles. Critically, we observe a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate combustion vehicles before 2050.
Data availability
The data and assumptions to operate FTT:Transport are available at https://zenodo.org/uploads/10690730. The data underpinning the analysis is available at https://zenodo.org/records/17508909. Model names are obscured in line with MarkLines data licensing requirements. The full data can be provided to users that hold a MarkLines license upon request by writing to the corresponding author.
Code availability
The code for FTT:Transport is availble at https://github.com/aileenlam28/FTT-Transport. The code used to study the early tipping signals is available at https://github.com/jbuxt/EV_EWS/tree/main.
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Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the Global Systems Institute (Exeter) for support. J.F.M. and A.L. acknowledge the World Bank’s Climate Support Facility. J.E.B., C.A.B., and T.M.L. acknowledge the Bezos Earth Fund. J.F.M., A.A., and T.M.L. acknowledge the UK Government’s BEIS/DESNZ-funded Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) program (www.eeist.co.uk). The authors thank Simon Sharpe, Femke Nijsse, Somik Lall, Kevin Carey, Etienne Espagne, and Indermit Gill for comments.
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Author notes
These authors contributed equally: Jean-François Mercure, Aileen Lam.
Authors and Affiliations
The University of Exeter Business School, Exeter, UK
Jean-François Mercure 1.
The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA
Jean-François Mercure & Aileen Lam 1.
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jean-François Mercure, Joshua E. Buxton, Chris A. Boulton, Amir Akther & Timothy M. Lenton 1.
Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macao, Macau, China
Aileen Lam
Authors
- Jean-François Mercure
- Aileen Lam
- Joshua E. Buxton
- Chris A. Boulton
- Amir Akther
- Timothy M. Lenton
Contributions
J.F.M. designed and coordinated the research, with support from all authors, designed the FTT model theory and method and wrote the article with support from all authors. A.L. gathered the data, designed and performed the research, built the FTT model, ran the simulations, and co-wrote the text. J.E.B. and C.A.B. applied the early tipping signals method to data. T.M.L. designed the early tipping signals theory and method and co-wrote the text. A.A. supported data collection.
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Correspondence to Jean-François Mercure.
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Mercure, JF., Lam, A., Buxton, J.E. et al. Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles. Nat Commun (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66945-9
Received: 26 January 2025
Accepted: 19 November 2025
Published: 08 December 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66945-9