Home » Artificial intelligence » Atlanta Federal Reserve Estimates USA GDP at 5.3% and is Ahead of China
The latest GDPNow USA GPD estimate is 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth. The U.S. economy saw strong growth in Q3 2025, with real GDP increasing by an annualized 4.3%, building on Q2’s 3.8% rise.
China 2025 GDP was 5.0%, meeting government’s target. Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.5% y/y, just a…
Home » Artificial intelligence » Atlanta Federal Reserve Estimates USA GDP at 5.3% and is Ahead of China
The latest GDPNow USA GPD estimate is 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth. The U.S. economy saw strong growth in Q3 2025, with real GDP increasing by an annualized 4.3%, building on Q2’s 3.8% rise.
China 2025 GDP was 5.0%, meeting government’s target. Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.5% y/y, just above market forecast. For Q1 2026, analysts like ANZ predict China to have weak GDP growth, potentially in the low-to-mid 4% range (year-on-year), with limited stimulus impact and a focus on services rebound. Overall 2026 GDP is projected around 4.5% for China.
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The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.3 percent on January 14, up from 5.1 percent on January 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent, 4.8 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent, 5.1 percent, and 1.6 percent.
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to nowcast GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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