Though 2025 was a wild ride, 2026 is shaping up to be an even more pivotal year for the supply chain, driven by the convergence of three key forces.

First, breakthrough advancements in agentic AI are set to reshape operations and decision-making.

Second, the intensification of global uncertainty, including economic shifts, geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariffs, will continue to challenge planning and resilience. The unexpected has become the norm, with businesses facing tariff swings of 30-40%, straining operations, especially for smaller companies with fewer buffers.

Finally, escalating costs from climate disruption add another layer of complexity for supply chains worldwide.

These forces are deeply interconnected. As an analogy, it reminds me of two trees I got to know in the Bahamas that exhibited mutualism. Poisonwood, which causes a severe skin reaction, invariably grows next to a tree whose leaves provide the antidote. In a similar manner, agentic AI arrives at a time when the risk from volatility and climate disruption urgently requires a counterbalance. It does this, and more, going beyond merely countering risk to deliver net positive and even transformational benefit. Success in 2026 will favor those who recognize this interdependent mutualism and lean in to agentic AI as a counterforce.

While much of the attention last year focused on Gen AI to do things better, the focus in 2026 will shift to agentic AI to do things entirely differently. Both rely on LLMs at their core, but agentic AI’s goal-oriented nature, and its ability to orchestrate actions across dozens of sub-agents to solve complex problems, go way beyond Gen AI capabilities, and make it transformative.

What does this mean for businesses and their supply chains? The impact on productivity will be pronounced. Agentic AI can close talent gaps, enabling junior employees to achieve the same performance and outcomes as veterans in functional tasks – a challenge that affects nearly every organization.

It also upskills users so that even the most seasoned professionals can perform far more complex tasks, such as planning and executing in collaboration with sub-tier partners across the entire value chain. This capability helps businesses better manage risks from global uncertainty and climate disruptions, navigate challenges in ways that were previously impossible, and gain a competitive advantage.

Most importantly, agentic AI turns regular users into superusers by breaking down silos and organizational barriers, enabling tasks in the supply chain that were previously impossible. Properly applied, it is poised to redefine supply chain management and remove long-standing inefficiencies.

Companies seeking a competitive advantage should adopt agentic AI and prioritize use cases powered by data across the entire value chain, including ecosystem partners. After all, AI is only as good as the data behind it. More than 90% of supply chain disruptions that impact businesses occur outside of internal operations, deep within the supply chain. Access to this data in any agentic AI deployment is essential for making quality decisions – otherwise, you’re running blind. This is especially important if you’re on a pathway to decision automation.

It is equally important to prioritize approaches that scale across multiple functional areas. While agentic AI in, say, planning or logistics is helpful, the true value comes from agentic AI in planning and logistics. Reducing the barrier to cross-functional workflows, and enabling faster, more effective decision-making across the supply chain is where the magic of agentic AI really shines.

Tariff swings, shifting trade policies and geopolitical tensions will continue to disrupt supply chains. Furthermore, fragile consumer confidence and inflationary pressures will compound unpredictability for both demand and supply, putting businesses at risk.

Despite businesses and consumers feeling tariff fatigue, the Administration is still using tariffs as a favored policy tool. The tricky part for CEOs is that changes in trade policy are largely outside of their control, but the good news is that how a company responds to these changes is entirely within their hands.

Companies should stay informed. Staying on top of changes in trade policy and connecting it directly to planning and execution systems makes it possible to move quickly when opportunities or risks arise. Companies that make smarter, faster decisions in the face of uncertainty can gain a real advantage over competitors.

Access to real-time trade and tariff data is essential. Policies can shift monthly, weekly, or even daily; far too quickly to manage with spreadsheets alone. Integrating this information across procurement, manufacturing, distribution and demand planning ensures decisions are timely and accurate. And when tariffs hit, having the right data at the right time can mean the difference between making or losing money on a product line or the business as a whole.

Climate Disruption Drives Operational and Financial Risk

Cyclones, wildfires, droughts, heatwaves and other extreme events will continue to disrupt production, crop yields, transportation and critical infrastructure at intensifying rates.

Climate has become a universal “cost tax,” driving higher supply costs, lost inventory, damaged infrastructure and rising logistics expenses. Reported damage from climate disruptions is now roughly ten times greater than it was 25 years ago.

The real challenge for brand owners is that most of these climate disruptions affecting their business happen outside internal operations, deep within sub-tier supply or distribution networks. However, the processes and systems at most companies are inward-looking. This creates a blind spot in regard to disruptions deep in the supply chain, with staff only discovering them once it’s too late to take preventive action. This lack of visibility and control traps companies within a cycle of costly and inefficient firefighting.

Companies must think bigger. While you can’t control climate events, you can control how you build resilience and respond when disruptions happen. Start by extending planning and execution beyond the four walls for sub-tier visibility to understand risks, mitigate exposure and better respond when disruptions occur.

Invest in multi-enterprise supply chain management designed for collaboration with ecosystem partners. By making connected decisions that reflect the realities of the end-to-end value chain, companies become inherently more resilient to unexpected disruptions.

Leverage agentic AI to gain a competitive advantage. Close talent gaps, upskill users to make higher-quality functional decisions that incorporate sub-tier realities and break down organizational and process barriers. Done right, this transforms cross-functional decision-making and strengthens your ability to navigate climate risks proactively rather than reactively.

2026 will be a year of change, so buckle up. While uncertainty and climate risk are intensifying and poised to whipsaw supply chains in the new year, agentic AI has emerged as a powerful new tool to give companies a way to not only navigate headwinds but also gain an advantage.

Think of it as a match of the ages. In one corner are the negative forces of uncertainty and disruption, mindlessly battering supply chains. In the other corner is a new, positive, agentic force to fend them off and open the door to new levels of productivity. In 2026, companies that embrace agentic AI and act decisively will not only survive the chaos but also emerge stronger, ready to redefine what is possible in the supply chain.

John Lash is GVP of strategy at e2open, a WiseTech global group company.