Former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya’s entrance into the Minnesota Senate race is giving Republicans a high-profile candidate they say puts the seat more in play.

Tafoya is vying for retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s (D-Minn.) seat and quickly earned the backing of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, clearing the way for her to be the heavy favorite in the primary while centrist Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan compete for the Democratic nod.

Though Tafoya has a steep climb ahead given the state’s political leanings and midterm environment, the former NFL journalist’s bid has upped the stakes for Democrats and placed the issue of electability front and center in their primary.

“It’s really solidified the fact that this seat can be in play if we aren’t strategic about what it is that we’re going to do on the Democratic side,” explained Kyrstin Schuette, a former political director for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) who sees Craig as the stronger candidate compared to Flanagan.

The former NFL sideline reporter for NBC Sports Group officially launched her bid for Smith’s seat on Wednesday, vowing in a nearly three-minute campaign ad that she would fight fraud in the state, tackle cost of living, keep transgender women out of women’s sports and deport criminals.

Tafoya easily offers Republicans their most competitive Senate challenger to date, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) wasted no time in backing her. NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) lauded her in a statement as “the only candidate with the common-sense leadership Minnesotans are desperately craving.”

A memo from the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm called the North Star State “another strong opportunity for Republicans to expand our majority in the Senate,” pointing out that President Trump’s margins in the state in 2024 amounted to Republicans’ best performance since former President Reagan. The memo also said polling had found the issue of fraud to be a liability for Democrats amid the ongoing investigation around Minnesota’s social services scandal.

“I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Minnesota GOP chair Alex Plechash about Republicans’ chances of flipping the seat.

Plechash noted the party was also fielding several other good candidates but added of Tafoya that she has “credibility” and “discipline.”

“It’s clear that she’s got the ability to connect with people, you know, both independents, suburban voters,” he said.

Some Democrats suggest that the dynamics of the race will line up in the party’s favor, regardless of which candidate ultimately wins the Democratic primary, pointing out Republicans haven’t won statewide in two decades and the elections are happening in a midterm season that’s shaping up to be anti-Trump.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) presence in the state, which saw the shooting of Renee Good and a five-year-old boy taken away by federal agents, has also sparked backlash within the community. A second Department of Homeland Security-involved shooting, which killed a 37-year-old man on Saturday, sparked further furor within the state.

The Trump administration has defended the events, alleging their agents were acting in self-defense. They also alleged the boy who was taken by agents had been abandoned by his father, though witnesses and the child’s school have disputed the account.

“I think Minnesotans are seeing with their own eyes what’s happening to the Republican Party,” Minnesota DFL Chair Richard Carlbom said. “We are experiencing a situation right now where Donald Trump is waging a retribution campaign on Minnesota.”

They’ve also pointed out that Tafoya isn’t necessarily guaranteed a smooth ride through the GOP primary, noting that the former sports journalist was once cool to the idea of Trump running in 2024 and has described herself as “pro-choice” on the issue of abortion.

Unlike in Democratic primaries in the state, the candidate who succeeds in the GOP nominating convention has usually prevailed in Senate GOP primary in more recent years.

Tafoya told NOTUS in a recent interview on the issue of abortion that “I have the utmost respect for the other side of the argument, but I think there’s room for both of us.”

However, Tafoya’s tone has shifted on the president. During an appearance on Fox News’s “Gutfeld!” in mid-December, the former sideline reporter acknowledged that she, too, once had her “own little Trump protest back in 2022.”

“I thought we needed a more conventional kind of candidate. Clearly, I was wrong,” Tafoya said, adding that “only a non-traditional, disruptive candidate like Donald Trump could achieve all of the things he has achieved.”

Former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.), once a member of House GOP leadership, noted that Tafoya has been “received very enthusiastically by party leaders,” both locally and at the state level.

But he said her views on abortion weren’t aligned with most grassroots Republicans, suggesting she might need to “define herself as functionally pro-life, meaning she’s going to be with the pro-lifers on the issues that come before her as a senator.”

At the same time, Tafoya joining the fray has still upped the stakes for Democrats. Craig released a video after Tafoya’s announcement taking a not-so-subtle jab at Flanagan, suggesting the congresswoman was the more electable candidate over the progressive lieutenant governor.

“Democrats can’t afford to nominate someone who’s never won a competitive election on her own,” Craig said in her video.

Some members of the party see electability as a real issue. Democrats have previously suggested that Flanagan could be more vulnerable on the issue of fraud than Craig since Flanagan serves as a member of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration, and suggest Craig has an advantage of already having served in federal office as a congresswoman.

“The conversation around fraud is something that’s going to continue to dog Democrats in Minnesota,” Schuette, who’s running for Minnesota state House, adding that she had a hard time watching Flanagan embrace the accomplishments of her administration while distancing herself from the fraud scandal.

The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm released their own polling, conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling, that shows Tafoya loses to a generic Democrat with 39 percent support compared to a Democrat’s 47 percent, and its spokesman, Joe Bush, in a statement suggested Republicans are doomed to lose the Senate election again regardless of which GOP candidate wins the primary. Both campaigns have sought to tout internal polling suggesting their respective candidates are viable general election contenders.

It’s “interesting to me that the only thing that Angie is running on is electability. She’s not running on her vision. She’s not running on what she wants to do,” said a Democratic operative close to the Flanagan campaign.

“How do you make that argument to people who consistently vote statewide for Democrats?” the operative said of the electability argument.

Minnesota House Assistant DFL Floor Leader Larry Kraft (DFL), who’s backing Flanagan in the race, suggested that having a ticket with both Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) — should she run for Minnesota governor — and Flanagan for Senate gives both sides of the DFL base a reason to turn out.

Kraft also suggested Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act last year was a liability for the candidate at a time when the state is seeing increased federal immigration presence.

A messy primary between Craig and Flanagan is certain to benefit Republicans. Yet, the party is clear-eyed that they have a long haul ahead even with a strong candidate like Tafoya in the race.

“This was a really big leap forward,” former Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch (R) said of Tafoya’s entrance.

“Folks in Washington just don’t understand the dynamics of Minnesota. And I get it, the results are statewide, Republicans don’t win,” Koch said. “But that doesn’t mean that this is a super blue state.”

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