I’m in Davos. I was last here in 1999 — a period in history marked by (relative) peace, a narrower wealth gap, and techno optimism. Today geopolitics resembles a cross between pre-World War II and the Gilded Age, and Big Tech is the foe. But the most striking change is that the U.S. is no longer the good guy. It’s as if MGM greenlit a body swap installment of the Bond franchise, where 007 and Ernst Stavro Blofeld switch places. Think: *Diamonds Are Forever *meets Freaky Friday.

American military interventions have always reminded me of the *Bond *films. The opening act is nothing short of spectacular: a daring production marked by operational excellence, jaw-dropping personal courage, and high-tech lethality. But too often the rest of the movie serves up mediocrity and confusion, resulting in citizens/viewers asking, “How did we get here?”

Goldfinger** — the Gulf War (1990-91)**

In response to Iraq invading Kuwait, George H.W. Bush assembled a 42-nation coalition. After a six-month build up, it took 43 days and fewer than 300 U.S. killed for the American-led forces to expel Iraq from Kuwait. Bush decided to declare victory and leave, vs. attempting to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein’s regime. The first Gulf War was Goldfinger: There was an iconic villain (Saddam), clear stakes (oil and sovereignty), spectacular set pieces (smart bombs down ventilation shafts), public support (yellow ribbons), and a clear ending. Even the dialogue was Oscar-worthy: “This aggression will not stand.” The plot was a perfect execution of the Powell Doctrine.

***Spectre — ***the Iraq War (2003-11)

It took just 26 days of major combat operations for U.S.-led forces to enter Iraq, destroy Saddam Hussein’s military, and capture Baghdad. The “shock and awe” of Tomahawk missiles decimating their targets, American armored units on “thunder runs” slicing through the opposition, and the toppling of Saddam’s statue were as compelling as the opening of Spectre. Unfortunately, the next eight years also resembled Spectre. Weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist. George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” photo-op. Abu Ghraib. There was no plan to stand up Iraqi civil society; we just imposed a democracy — a contradiction in terms. Sectarian violence followed, at an enormous human cost: 4,500 American dead, 32,000 wounded, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties. We squandered trillions of dollars — money we should’ve invested in America. Political division at home. ISIS. Iranian hegemony.

Critics panned Spectre for wasting one of the best openings in Bond history and for desperately attempting to retroactively connect the Daniel Craig films into one grand conspiracy. (See: the nonexistent link between Saddam and 9/11, fictional WMDs, and a Neocon pipedream about spreading democracy throughout the Middle East.) W. would be one of the most liked ex-presidents — his Pepfar program was credited with saving millions of lives in Africa before Trump came for it — had he not produced an Oscar-caliber geopolitical disaster film.

The World Is Not Enough** — Venezuela**

The U.S. military raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was a serious flex. For months, a surveillance team observed Maduro’s every move, while special forces trained in an exact, full-size replica of Maduro’s Caracas safe house. The night of the raid, hundreds of U.S. warplanes knocked out Venezuelan defenses. In a little over two hours, American forces eliminated more than 50 Venezuelan and Cuban soldiers and captured Maduro and his wife, while sustaining zero dead and seven wounded. The ultimate *Bond *opener.

A month after the raid, however, America’s intervention in Venezuela is beginning to resemble The World Is Not Enough — a forgettable Bond film with a convoluted plot about controlling oil pipelines in the Caucasus. Trump’s casus belli (fentanyl and cocaine) didn’t survive the press conference; he mentioned illegal drugs just five times, while talking about oil 27 times. However, Venezuela’s black gold is heavy crude; it costs $70 to extract a barrel of oil you can sell for $58. *Regime change for oil, 007? That’s like invading the Alps for snow. *Cut to: An Oval Office meeting where ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told Trump Venezuela is “uninvestable.”

Where *The World Is Not Enough *had a bad script, Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” doesn’t have a script at all. After the raid, Trump announced that Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was in charge, saying she would “make Venezuela great again.” But Rodriguez struck a defiant tone, saying, “There is only one president in Venezuela, and his name is Nicolás Maduro.” In a column for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, retired U.S. Marine Colonel Mark F. Cancian called the Maduro raid a “military victory with no viable endgame,” likening it to conquering Nazi Germany but keeping the Nazis in charge.

Quantum of Solace** — Greenland**

*Quantum of Solace *is the Bond film nobody asked for. The geopolitical equivalent? Seizing Greenland. In the film, the villain’s scheme revolves around controlling Bolivia’s water supply — a resource he could simply purchase. Trump’s motives are even more convoluted. Greenland has valuable minerals, but 80% of the land is covered in ice, making extraction difficult and costly. One Arctic expert called the idea “completely bonkers,” adding, “You might as well mine on the moon.” Greenland is strategically important, especially as the melting Arctic ice cap opens up new shipping lanes, but we don’t need to invade — we already have the right to reinforce existing bases under a 1951 treaty. Speaking of treaties, attacking Denmark would blow up NATO, the most successful military alliance in history. We walked into a Starbucks with an AR-15, locked and loaded, and demanded a grande latte for $6.46. OK, we can have that without the gun or the threats. So fucking stupid.

What’s the motivation here? Some theories. First, Greenland is 3x the size of Texas. Seizing Greenland, or bribing Greenlanders to break their ties with Denmark and join the U.S., would be a real estate deal on the order of the Louisiana Purchase, albeit with a fraction of the ROI. Second, Trump said he feels that ownership of Greenland is “psychologically needed for success.” Third, like a movie star snubbed by the Academy, Trump is mad he didn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump’s Greenland folly is *Quantum of Solace *as written by the writer’s room from Veep, directed by Ed Wood (ask Gemini), and produced by the team that brought you Ishtar. Note: During his speech at Davos Trump backed away from an invasion (#yay).

In geopolitical terms, the audience for *Quantum of Stupid *was Russia and China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the NATO concept had “discredited itself.” That’s Russian for “stupid,” i.e., the U.S. is hurting Europe while hurting itself, and we love to see it. Without NATO, Putin could take advantage by rolling up Ukraine and then turning his attention toward seizing the Baltics, Finland, and Poland. A wider European war would likely follow. Meanwhile, China will continue to expand its influence. Last week, during an official visit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged Canadian leader Mark Carney to chart a path of “strategic autonomy” independent of the U.S. In a speech at Davos, Carney gave an obituary for the rules-based order America once led, saying, “the middle powers must act together, because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.” For China, the entree is Taiwan.

In economic terms, *Quantum of Stupid *is already a flop. After announcing a 10% tariff on goods from eight European nations that immediately rallied around Denmark, the U.S. got a sneak preview of coming attractions. Denmark’s largest pension fund announced plans to sell off $100 million in Treasuries (it denied the move was political). Pimco’s chief investment officer told the Financial Times it was pivoting away from U.S. assets because of Trump’s “unpredictable” policies. Europe holds 40% of foreign U.S. Treasuries. As Ray Dalio said, “You could easily imagine it could simply become unpopular to buy or hold U.S. debt.” True. You could also imagine the EU weaponizing capital. “For all its military and economic strength, the U.S. has one key weakness: It relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits,” said Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos, adding that it’s “not clear why Europeans would be as willing to play this part.”

You Only Live Twice** — Iran**

In You Only Live Twice, Bond fakes his death to infiltrate SPECTRE and stop World War III. The title refers to a Japanese proverb: “You only live twice: once when you are born, and once when you look death in the face.” The Islamic Republic is looking death in the face, and the U.S. has a small window to pull the plug. This should be the Bond film every American wants. The Islamic Republic caused 17% of all U.S. casualties in Iraq and armed anti-American forces in Afghanistan. It remains the world’s chief sponsor of terror, committed to a policy of “death to America.” Iran’s mullahs have a brutal human rights record, especially when it comes to women and LGBTQ people. However, the left is silent, suffering under a moral color code. When the oppressor is brown, it experiences moral paralysis.

We squandered regime change opportunities during the 2009 protests over rigged elections and again in 2022 when Iranian women took to the streets. (Call this a regrettable prequel, Live and Let Live.) Now the regime is even more vulnerable. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has systematically dismantled Iranian proxy forces. Meanwhile, Iran is facing economic collapse — the rial fell by 45% against the dollar in 2025, inflation accelerated from 33% in 2024 to 42% last year, food prices have increased by 70% YoY, and an estimated one-third of Iranians live in poverty. Protests have galvanized society. The resulting crackdown has killed as many as 20,000 Iranians, according to a UN estimate. Airstrikes could defang the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, sabotage could disrupt infrastructure, cyber could cripple regime intelligence and propaganda capabilities while boosting opposition visibility, and special forces could take out the mullahs. The question isn’t whether we’re capable of regime change, but what comes next? The answer is likely something better, or less bad. Military intervention is always a risk, and this is one worth taking.

Unserious

The tragedy of American power isn’t that it’s declining; it’s that it’s increasingly unserious. We still have the muscle, the money, and the moral case. What we lack is patience, humility, and the stamina for the boring part — asking “What happens next?” Until we relearn how to write second acts, every intervention will look the same: dazzling, destructive, and destined for a sequel no one asked for.

Life is so rich

P.S. At Davos this week, I sat down with historian Niall Ferguson to discuss geopolitics. Listen on Apple or Spotify, or watch our conversation on YouTube.