The coupled uncertainties in carbon dioxide removal and transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions
iopscience.iop.org·5h
🌍Climate Science
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Meeting Paris Agreement targets increasingly points to a need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. While CDR seems promising, the associated uncertainties are not well known. One unexplored aspect is whether the uncertainties in CDR and transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) are coupled to any degree, e.g. some CDR methods could have lower carbon removal potential if TCRE are high. In this paper, we quantify the coupled uncertainties between TCRE and the CDR of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and reforestation. To do so, we used a perturbed parameter ensemble with the University of Victoria Earth system climate model. These results were fed to train Kernel Flows-based model emulators, which in turn were used, together with observational data, to c…

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