HANDS OFF: California’s proposed billionaire tax would directly affect a tiny number of people. But they can marshal enormous sums to fight it — and the counter-campaign is expanding accordingly.
Foes are moving on at least five different fronts to neutralize SEIU-UHW’s ballot initiative — and that’s not counting Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is poised to rally allies and donors against it.
The growing opposition speaks to the perceived scope of the fallout from the measure passing, which many Silicon Valley players have cast in apocalyptic terms. But it also reflects a durable reality of California politics: for every wealthy person looking to engage in politics, there are a dozen consultants happy to cash a fat check.
“Everyone’s vying for a piece of that one,” said ballot cons…
HANDS OFF: California’s proposed billionaire tax would directly affect a tiny number of people. But they can marshal enormous sums to fight it — and the counter-campaign is expanding accordingly.
Foes are moving on at least five different fronts to neutralize SEIU-UHW’s ballot initiative — and that’s not counting Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is poised to rally allies and donors against it.
The growing opposition speaks to the perceived scope of the fallout from the measure passing, which many Silicon Valley players have cast in apocalyptic terms. But it also reflects a durable reality of California politics: for every wealthy person looking to engage in politics, there are a dozen consultants happy to cash a fat check.
“Everyone’s vying for a piece of that one,” said ballot consultant Brandon Castillo, who is not getting in on the action. (Instead, he’s on a California Hospital Association initiative to clip the wings of the wealth tax’s champion, SEIU-UHW President Dave Regan.)
A brief taxonomy:
– You have the Stop the Squeeze committee, run by Newsom loyalists Dan Newman and Brian Brokaw and seeded by venture capitalist and longtime Democratic benefactor Ron Conway.
– Consultants **Mike Murphy **and **Larry Grisolano **have run a poll at the behest of some affluent adversaries and could expand their effort.
– The California Business Roundtable has collected a $3 million check from libertarian mega-funder Peter Thiel to fight the measure.
– A cluster of five ballot initiatives that would undercut the wealth tax await title and summary. The listed proponent is campaign attorney extraordinaire **Kurt Oneto, **but it’s widely believed to be powered by more high-net-worth opponents (Oneto did not respond to requests for comment).
– One trial balloon has already deflated. A new anti-wealth-tax committee filed paperwork late last week — and the effort dissolved shortly thereafter, according to a person familiar with the effort who declined to elaborate on who’s behind it, saying only that they’d planned to work with a range of businesses. For what it’s worth, one of the names under which the committee shows up on CalAccess, “Save California,” is also the title of a Slack chat where tech titans have plotted against the tax, according to the Wall Street Journal.
So why all the cooks in the kitchen?
Beyond consultants thinking about their second mortgages, Lapsley described overlapping efforts to work existing relationships. Conway and Thiel may share an aversion to this tax, for example, but their politics and circles are otherwise starkly different — hence one working with Newsom allies and another sending money to a conservative business group.
“It’s concentric circles,” Lapsley said. “The threat to California is so large and existential with this wealth tax that there’s going to be multiple efforts.”
People behind the various efforts would like to get on the same page — but the nascent counter-campaign isn’t there yet. There’s a risk that too many players muddle the message, squander money on redundant efforts, or create unwanted guilt by association. That’s especially true since California voters generally revile Donald Trump, and SEIU-UHW is framing its campaign as an essential counter to the president’s agenda.
“There’s many risks,” Newman said, including “that you lose focus on where most Californians are, which is: we care about income inequality, we support people getting health care, we don’t want Trump taking health care away from people, but we need to not fall for the shiny object that would actually hurt everything we care about.”
You can see some shared tactics emerging already. Both the Murphy/Grisolano and Newman/Brokaw efforts polled the measure and found voters could be swayed by negative messages about the measure’s ineffectiveness, like arguments that it will backfire by driving the wealthy out of state or get tied up in court.
So don’t be surprised to see those points on a mailer or in a television ad. The question is: will those hits be coordinated? Or will it be an unmitigated melee?
Welcome to Ballot Measure Weekly, a special edition of Playbook PM focused on California’s lively realm of ballot measure campaigns. Questions? Concerns? Tips? Drop Playbook PM author Lindsey Holden a line at [email protected].
A highly subjective ranking of the ballot measures — past and future, certain and possible — getting our attention this week.
- Homelessness and housing fund (2026): An effort from Assemblymember Corey Jackson to send voters an initiative creating a homelessness and affordable housing fund was held in the Assembly Appropriations Committee on Thursday. Jackson’s ACA 4 would have required the state to set aside at least 5 percent of general fund revenue to be used for homelessness prevention, affordable housing development and homeownership opportunities for low- and middle-income buyers.
- **Curbing anti-affirmative action (2026): **Another possible ballot measure from Jackson that would narrow California’s anti-affirmative action law made it out of Assembly Appropriations. ACA 7 would seek voter approval to change Proposition 209, a 1996 initiative that banned “preferential treatment” in public education, employment or contracting rooted in gender, race and ethnicity or national origin. Jackson’s proposed measure would replace “public education” with “higher education admissions and enrollment.” This would allow colleges and universities to consider race and gender in other areas and permit K-12 schools to look at those characteristics when setting policies.
- Prop 50 (2025): The candidate filing deadline for midterm elections is drawing closer, but California’s new House lines are still getting contested in court. Thwarted by a lower court in their effort to block Prop 50’s gerrymandered maps, the California Republican Party and U.S. Department of Justice have appealed to the Supreme Court. California has until Thursday to respond to the emergency injunction now before the court.
- Scientific research bond (2026): A proposal by state Sen. Scott Wiener to place a $23 billion bond for scientific research on the November ballot in response to the Trump administration’s funding cuts to the University of California and other higher education institutions has garnered bipartisan support from nearly a third of the Legislature, after he tacked on a provision to give the state a cut of future profits from discoveries made through the bond-funded research. The UC, Stanford and USC are among a coalition hosting a “science fair for canceled research” this evening in Sacramento to showcase projects they say have been halted due to federal research cuts.
- **Raising threshold to increase taxes (2026): **The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association-backed measure to raise the threshold for passing local special tax hikes from 50 percent to two-thirds is in the signature gathering phase right now. Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, who is working to qualify the measure, said, “We do believe that there’s a path to get the signatures, but it’s going to be every single day, us working our tails off, to get there.”
- East Solano Plan Initiative (Solano County, 2024): Though the effort led by California Forever CEO Jan Sramek was pulled from the Solano County ballot in 2024, the plan’s organizers have big plans to break ground in 2026. The group on Wednesday announced a 40-year construction agreement with the Northern California Carpenters Union and the Napa/Solano Building and Construction Trades Council. Local pushback has continued, however, with residents opposed to the project organizing a march set for Saturday.
- **Prop 22 (2020): *California’s new unionization law for Uber and Lyft drivers, drawn up as a workaround to ride-hailing companies’ ballot initiative classifying gig workers as “independent contractors,” is pitting labor groups against each other. The 2025 law mandates that only one union can represent Uber and Lyft drivers, but both the SEIU-backed California Gig Workers Union and the independent Rideshare Drivers Union are vying for the slot. Read more in Friday’s California Decoded newsletter. *
*— With help from Tyler Katzenberger, Blake Jones, Lindsey Holden, Brock Hrehor and *Eric He
**GOING LONG: **Defense tech upstart Anduril is dramatically expanding operations in California and committing to the state even as its billionaire founder **Palmer Luckey **has warned the wealth tax proposal will trigger an exodus, **Christine Mui **writes in California Decoded.
Last week, Anduril chose Long Beach, where Luckey grew up, as the home of a new billion-dollar campus dedicated to research and development. The site is projected to bring about 5,500 new jobs and would turn the defense contractor into the city’s largest private employer, according to Mayor Rex Richardson.
“Regardless of the policy debate, we’re here for the long term,” Anduril spokesperson **Shannon Prior **told Christine. “There’s great talent, a density of technical expertise, proximity to some of the best universities around and … that innovative culture that’s unmatched in any other state.”
**Silicon Valley leaders have been at the **forefront of opposition to the measure, warning it will drive founders and their companies out of the Golden State. Luckey, now a Newport Beach resident, is part of a Signal chat where California billionaires have plotted to stop the tax. He previously said it would “force founders like me to sell huge chunks of our companies to pay for fraud, waste, and political favors.”
Anduril is side-eyeing the proposal, though Richardson said the potential tax never came up when he met with company representatives, including co-founder and COO Matt Grimm.
Prior criticized it on Friday as a “poorly designed policy that can create significant disincentives for entrepreneurs and founders starting companies in California.”
Still, she added, “real estate deals take a long time to come to fruition, so if you’re responding to any potential legislation that could or could not happen, that’s just not a good way to run your business.”
**SKIPPING THE CROWD IN LA: **A coalition of labor and health care groups will announce Wednesday that they want to bump up a proposed sales tax increase in Los Angeles County from the crowded November 2026 ballot to June 2026 instead.
The one-half percent sales tax increase would fund local clinics and county health care services, and is being pushed by St. John’s Community Health, and now several local SEIU chapters and other health care organizations as well. Backers say the move to June is to highlight the urgency of cuts to Medi-Cal under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” but it would also avoid going up against other tax-related November ballot contenders. — Rachel Bluth
— A new report from CalRecycle, the state agency that oversees waste disposal, estimates how few of our goods actually end up being recycled. (SFGate)
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Newsom in a Thursday interview with POLITICO, saying he has a “brain the size of a walnut.” (POLITICO)
— According to a new survey, Orange County businesses say they’re struggling amid tariffs and ongoing immigration crackdowns. (Orange County Register)
— The iconic Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco just landed a lease with the highest office rent ever seen in the city. (San Francisco Chronicle)
— Fresno Unified School District Trustees will receive a 113 percent pay raise after a new state law raised the limit on compensation for school board members. (Fresno Bee)
— Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will give two State of the City speeches during election season. (Los Angeles Times)
— compiled by Brock Hrehor