A largescale war is looming, warn a significant number of Cassandras, politicians, researchers, senior army officers and journalists, based on the chaos of the past year. ‘I’ve reported on more than 40 wars around the world during my career, which goes back to the 1960s. I watched the cold war reach its height, then simply evaporate. But I’ve never seen a year quite as worrying as 2025,’ writes John Simpson, the BBC’s world affairs editor. The Council on Foreign Relations says the number of armed conflicts is at its highest since the second world war, pointing out that ‘traditional norms on nonaggression are rapidly degrading’ between states, and that nine capital cities were bombed in 2025: Beirut, Damascus, Doha, Kabul, Kyiv, Moscow, Sanaa, Tehran and Tel Aviv. We could add to this …
A largescale war is looming, warn a significant number of Cassandras, politicians, researchers, senior army officers and journalists, based on the chaos of the past year. ‘I’ve reported on more than 40 wars around the world during my career, which goes back to the 1960s. I watched the cold war reach its height, then simply evaporate. But I’ve never seen a year quite as worrying as 2025,’ writes John Simpson, the BBC’s world affairs editor. The Council on Foreign Relations says the number of armed conflicts is at its highest since the second world war, pointing out that ‘traditional norms on nonaggression are rapidly degrading’ between states, and that nine capital cities were bombed in 2025: Beirut, Damascus, Doha, Kabul, Kyiv, Moscow, Sanaa, Tehran and Tel Aviv. We could add to this list: Tunis, in whose port a Gaza-bound flotilla was attacked by Israeli drones; Khartoum, bombarded by rebel forces; and Caracas, which came under US fire this year during the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro.
The steady increase in global arms sales over several years confirms these dark omens. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), they reached $2,718bn in 2024, an increase of 9.4% compared with 2023. All regions are affected, including Africa. The figures for 2025, due to be announced this spring, are expected to confirm the trend: the world is rearming at great speed. ‘To remain free, one must be feared, and to be feared, one must be powerful. To be powerful in such a brutal world, we must act faster and stronger,’ declared French President Emmanuel Macron in his address to the armed forces on 15 January this year. A retired general commented: ‘The more weapons are produced, the greater the likelihood they’ll have to be used. The example of the United States proves this.’
So war, then. But where? There are many theories, but one is dominant: four years after Russia’s invasion, the more or less deadlocked situation in Ukraine could (…)
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