More from @ericjackson

Dec 26

The Fourth Turning & Vision 2041

Most people hear “Fourth Turning” and think:

collapse recession doom

That’s a misunderstanding.

A Fourth Turning isn’t the end of progress.

It’s when progress changes form.

History doesn’t move in straight lines. It moves in long cycles.

Every ~80–100 years, societies hit a crisis phase where: •old systems stop working •trust collapses •patchwork fixes fail •new rules must be written

That’s the Fourth Turning.

The last one gave us: •the Great Depression •World War II •a new monetary system •new institutions •new global leadership

Painful? Yes. But it also created the foundations for decades of growth.

Read 10 tweets

Dec 26

Most people see a broad commodity rally and think:

“System collapse.”

They’re wrong.

What we’re actually seeing is the global economy crossing the chasm.

Geoff Moore’s Crossing the Chasm explains why most people miss power-law moments.

Early adopters buy ideas. Mainstream pragmatists buy systems.

The chasm is when belief turns into necessity.

We are no longer in the Early Adopter phase of: •AI •energy transition •digital infrastructure

We are entering the Mainstream Pragmatist phase.

That’s when things get violent — and profitable.

Read 9 tweets

Dec 26

Most financial advice isn’t designed to make you rich.

It’s designed to make the advisor unfireable.

That distinction explains almost everything.

Index hugging isn’t a strategy. It’s career insurance.

If everyone owns the same thing, no one gets blamed.

That’s great for institutions. Terrible for individuals.

This is why Wall Street loves the “Mag 7” narrative.

Big. Liquid. Consensus. Easy to explain. Easy to defend.

You don’t need to think. You just need to conform.

Read 6 tweets

Dec 26

In a power-law world, a small number of outcomes drive most results.

Upside is the visible part. Survivability is the hidden one.

Power laws don’t reward the smartest ideas.

They reward the ideas and the people who can stay alive long enough for the distribution to reveal itself.

That’s a very different skill.

Being early and right often looks identical to being wrong.

Same drawdowns. Same ridicule. Same uncertainty.

Only time separates the two.

Read 11 tweets

Dec 25

A lot of people are asking the wrong question about NVIDIA buying Groq.

The question isn’t “why now?” It’s what weakness this quietly covers — and why Groq agreed to it.

Here’s the real explanation.

Start with NVIDIA’s uncomfortable truth.

GPUs dominate training. Inference is different.

Inference is: • margin-sensitive • power-constrained • long-duration • optimized ruthlessly by buyers

That’s exactly where GPUs are least defensible.

Most production inference does not need a $40k GPU.

It needs: • determinism • low latency • throughput per watt • predictable cost

That’s why LPUs / ASIC-style inference architectures keep resurfacing.

Not because GPUs are bad — but because they’re overkill.

Read 11 tweets

Dec 25

Credit to @FransBakker9812 — his February “fake data center” take aged well.

But NVIDIA buying Groq adds an important new dimension that changes how I think about IREN, CIFR, and HUT.

Here’s the distinction most people are missing.

The NVIDIA–Groq deal doesn’t reward “more megawatts.”

It rewards optionality across compute regimes.

Training. Inference. GPU. LPU / ASIC. Hybrid.

The winners are the operators who can reconfigure, not just host.

Groq’s critique in February was valid — but it was narrow.

Groq runs inference-first, small-facility, tightly coupled deployments.

That is not the same problem hyperscalers are solving at 100MW+ scale.

Read 8 tweets