Updated on:

27 Dec 2025, 7:48 pm

4 min read

Twenty twenty-five: a year when geopolitics sanctified populism, protectionism, personalism and proto-fascism. It was a year when apparitions from the past, assumed exorcised, sashayed into the parish of public discourse; a year that churned events and emotions like a twisting kaleidoscope. It was the year of that ineffable qualm defined by T S Eliot’s haunting observation: “In every moment you live at a point of intersection.”

The year was dominated by a noun that also serves as a verb, and even an adjective. Donald J Trump defined the year and occupied global attention like none before. Nothing that he said nor did was surprising—nothing was out of his campaign script—and yet, his words, conduct, ideas and actions were often shocking. It was a year when Trump talked peace and waged war—literally and metaphorically.

As the year draws to a close, the gaps between intent, initiatives and impact merit a few observations. Let’s look at where peace stands and then unravel where the trade wars are.

Trump has consistently claimed that he stopped eight wars. India disputed any claim of intervention and, indeed, America’s intervention was likely triggered by the Brahmos strike on Nur Khan air base believed to be under US control. The ceasefire in Gaza is interrupted by Israeli operations, Thailand bombed Cambodia even as a new ceasefire was discussed, the Rwanda-Congo war simmers and so on.

On Sunday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting Trump in Florida to discuss a peace plan owned by different sides at different times. Trump’s claim of stopping the war in 24 hours is 340 days late. The US stance has yo-yoed as the peace brigade travelled from Washington DC to Rome to Alaska. In vogue this week is the idea of converting the disputed territories into a demilitarised ‘free economic zone’. Peace prospects hinge on fragile trade-offs.

Even as peace eludes, the US National Security Strategy document has triggered debate. The brutal take-down of Europe has set EU leaders thinking. The debate on the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine—designed to signify a clear break between the New World and the autocratic realm of Europe—and domination over the Americas is evolving into a cloud of angst.

Meanwhile, Trump’s war on ‘narco terrorists’ morphed into a drive for regime change—Trump says it would be a smart move for Nicolás Maduro to step down. It is useful to note that Venezuela, accused by Trump of theft of assets, earlier threatened Guyana, which hosts a large oilfield under ExxonMobil. Trump has not ruled out a war and this week ramped up the buildup in the Caribbean—its C17 planes made 16 trips to Puerto Rico from other bases.

In his inaugural address in January, Trump said, ”We will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end—and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” In June, his base was troubled by US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. In the few past weeks, Trump ordered strikes on ISIS in Somalia; this Friday, the US targeted groups in Nigeria purportedly to protect Christians. Non-profit conflict monitor ACLED’s data suggests the US has carried out over 500 bombings the world over this year.

The jury is out on the record of ‘the Peace President’. What about the trade wars? How is Trump doing more than 260 days after Liberation Day? It is true that the US has collected $236 billion in tariffs. It is equally true that in September 2025, the year-to-date data shows America’s goods and services trade deficit increased $112.6 billion, or 17.2 percent higher than that witnessed in January-September 2024.

How has the US done vis-à-vis the countries with which it has had the highest trade deficits? Talks with China travelled across continents but is mired in consequential issues. China set the terms of trade with a series of crippling orders on rare minerals. There is a pause for sure, but there is no sign of a deal yet.

The deal with India, supposedly round the corner, awaits Trump’s okay. The parade of delays has implications for the US-India relationship. A deal with the EU is signed but not delivered as talks are stuck on the regulation of tech giants. As for Mexico and Canada—the biggest trade partners of the US—there is no sign of the USMCA treaty’s renewal.

Yes, trade and deficit with China are lower, but both are higher with Mexico; following suit are Vietnam, Taiwan and Ireland. Two data points stand out. China’s trade surplus passed the $1-trillion mark despite a 29 percent drop in shipments to the US. And notwithstanding all the sanctions, Russia’s rouble has appreciated to 79 to a dollar, levels last seen before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Trump wants to rearrange the global economy as he imagines it. He may stumble at the Supreme Court, but is unlikely to change course. The question is whether tariffs are serving the US economy’s interests. As of now, a part of tariffs are being eaten by companies and the impact is showing in lower and slower hiring. Rising debt, Kenneth Rogoff points out, may render the dollar less desirable.

Does the talk-peace-and-wage-war approach serve US interests? Already, the world is engaging to reimagine a multi-polar world scaffolded by interests, not ideologies. It is useful to remember that the powerful are also dependent. As Eliot wrote, “There will be time, there will be time/ To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet.”

Read all columns by Shankkar Aiyar

Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India

(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)