Citizens flock to a polling station in Bang Kapi district, Bangkok, on Feb 1 for advance voting. VARUTH HIRUNYATHEB

Analysts are mapping coalition scenarios for the next government, depending on whether the People’s Party (PP) or Bhumjaithai finishes first, with no party expected to govern alone.

Forming a government requires a simple majority of more than 250 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives, though most observers view a 300-seat coalition as the benchmark for stability.

Even if the PP finishes first, it faces a more complex path than Bhumjaithai unless it secures a near-landslide with close to 250 seats.

Many parties are expected to reject cooperation with the PP, leaving Pheu Thai as its most plausible partner due to closer ideological alignment.

Ultimately, coalition talks are expected to hinge on cabinet negotiations, with Pheu Thai emerging as the key variable in forming a government.

If the PP wins with projections of about 150 seats, one possible formula would combine the PP and Pheu Thai, expected to win 80-100 seats, alongside the Democrat Party and smaller parties such as Prachachat, pushing the coalition close to 300 seats.

If Bhumjaithai finishes first, with some forecasts placing it at around 150 seats and the PP at 130-150, two main scenarios emerge.

One would unite Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai, and the Klatham Party, with support from smaller parties.

Another would pair Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai with the Democrats, again comfortably exceeding 300 seats.

Chaiyan Ratchakul, a political scientist at the University of Phayao, believes the PP is likely to lead the government after Sunday’s election but warns it may not last long.

He points to a pending legal case involving 44 MPs who signed a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law, as a potential trigger for the party’s removal.

He outlines three possibilities: a PP-Pheu Thai coalition, a Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai alliance with the PP in opposition, or a less likely partnership between the PP and Bhumjaithai.

Mr Chaiyan considers the first scenario most probable, followed by a later realignment returning Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai to power.

He adds that the Democrats are unlikely to secure enough seats to be decisive, while Klatham may outperform them but remain a secondary player.

Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, argues that the most likely coalition would involve Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and Klatham, citing their prior experience working together.

However, he notes that Klatham’s inclusion could raise public image concerns. Replacing it with the Democrat Party could make the coalition more acceptable to the middle class.

Stithorn Thananithichot, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said he believes that Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and the PP currently have equal chances of finishing first.

He views a Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai partnership as the most likely outcome, potentially joined by the Democrats to counter perceptions of political "greyness".

He adds that while Bhumjaithai’s first approach could be to the PP, the latter may struggle to justify joining such a coalition without alienating its support base.