SINGAPORE: Singapore can keep itself safe in today’s world by ensuring it has a successful economy and a credible military, said Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Thursday (Jan 8).

It must also forge ties with others, whether as part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional bloc or directly with other countries abroad, in order to ensure trade can continue under rules-based arrangements, he said.

He was responding to a question during a dialogue at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Regional Outlook Forum, on what small states can do in a global order that is being put at risk by the unilateral actions of other countries.

The dialogue, moderated by Singapore Ambassador-at-Large Chan Heng Chee, opened this year’s edition of the forum, which was held at the Sands Expo and Convention Centre with the theme “Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia”.

In an hour-long session which covered a wide range of geopolitical issues, Mr Lee answered questions on the role of the United States and China in the region and also spoke about the lessons he learnt from the key events that occurred during his tenure as prime minister.

KEEPING SAFE IN A FRAUGHT WORLD

Addressing a question from the audience on how Singapore can keep safe, Mr Lee said that Singapore must ensure that its economy is successful, because it would not have the means to act if it was “broke and poor”.

On the military front, Mr Lee said Singapore has been spending about 3 per cent of its GDP (gross domestic product) every year on defence “for a very long time” and has built up a credible Singapore Armed Forces.

“And we continue to do that, not to threaten anybody, but just to keep ourselves safe.”

Mr Lee also highlighted the need to work with regional neighbours and use ASEAN as a platform to partner other economies and centres of prosperity in the world, such as India, China and the European Union.

“These are all ties which we can cultivate so that even if I don’t have a full WTO (World Trade Organization) system, I have got a network of countries which want to trade with one another and continue to want to do business under some set of rules, which will prevent us from falling back to the law of the jungle,” he said.

He added that beyond ASEAN, Singapore can also actively seek such cooperation through other blocs like the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

He said Singapore also participates very actively in climate change conferences, discussions at the WTO, and at the United Nations’ Forum of Small States.

“Small states have agency. I don’t determine the outcome, but I have influence over my fate,” said Mr Lee.

WHY SINGAPORE SHOULD RESIST PICKING SIDES

While there is pressure from the competing superpowers for Singapore to pick a side, Singapore needs “to do our best to resist that”, Mr Lee said.

“The more we have links with all parties, I think the more we are in a position to say, ‘Well, I have some options. I don’t have to be pushed completely into following one side or the other’,” he said.

He said that not taking sides is “a completely rational and understandable sentiment”.

Most people will not want to get involved in someone else’s fight, said Mr Lee.

If a fight breaks out between two other countries, the government has to ask what is in it for Singapore to get involved and whether there is a principle at stake, he added.

For instance, Singapore does not support military intervention in a certain country, but that does not mean it becomes an enemy of the country because of this disapproval, he said. Singapore could still do business with them, added Mr Lee.

He cited the example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, for which Singapore has “issued very strong statements” and also imposed sanctions against Russia, but that “doesn’t mean we are hostile to Russia”.

This applies to the US and other major powers too, said Mr Lee.

“On US and China, everybody says they’re not asking you to choose sides (but) everybody would like you on their side without choosing.

“And sometimes they make it quite clear that this is their wish, and you have to find a way to do business with both of them and not to be closed off on one side,” he said.

He noted that when the US concluded trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia and its trade agreement with Canada and Mexico back in President Donald Trump’s first term, there were “poison pill provisions”.

That meant that “if you enter into an agreement with a country which doesn’t subscribe to US principles, or which is a problem to the US, this deal is off”, said Mr Lee.

Mr Lee noted that countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including the US’ own allies and friends, all have dealings with China, such as Japan, Korea and Australia.

“So this is a situation which many countries in the world will be in, and I do not think that the outcome will be that we are going to have a completely lopsided world in which one party will be alone and all the other countries will be on one side,” said Mr Lee.

ASEAN’S INFLUENCE

In his opening remarks, Mr Lee said the first thing the bloc can do is to cooperate more closely with one another and “deal with our external problems as one unit, rather than as 11 different countries”.

Singapore Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong at the 47th ASEAN Summit’s plenary session on Oct 26, 2025. (Photo: Ministry of Digital Development and Information)

To this end, he raised the examples of ASEAN “diligently working” to cooperate on the economy, infrastructure and the digital economy.

“But at the same time, ASEAN countries have some very difficult problems to resolve. Some of them – Myanmar internally, Thailand and Cambodia with an armed conflict – not really fully resolved,” said Mr Lee.

“ASEAN has to try and resolve them with some difficulty.”

During the dialogue, Mr Lee was asked by Prof Chan whether the US’ and China’s involvement in resolving the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia sets a future trend of conflict settlement within the bloc.

Mr Lee said in response that while ASEAN can influence its members, it does not have “absolute influence”.

“ASEAN is not a supranational body with executive powers. It doesn’t direct its members. It cannot override its members. It works by ASEAN consensus. It’s a famous principle, we pride ourselves on it. It’s the reason we are able to get along together,” he said.

The 11 member countries all have different policies, priorities, histories and security concerns, so it is not possible for them to operate like one country, he said.

The greatest power and influence actually goes to those who trade with the bloc the most, said Mr Lee. Intra-ASEAN trade among the bloc’s members constitutes only about 20 per cent of their international trade, he noted.

“Our biggest trading partners are with the developed economies, America foremost amongst them, and in our region, with China. And that is where influence can come,” said Mr Lee.

“Apart from the economy, there’s also many other ways in which the major powers can exercise influence on ASEAN members, so it’s not surprising that the major powers are able to nudge, encourage, advise, even coerce other countries to do something which they would like to do, to some extent.”

However, even those major powers may not necessarily be able to solve all problems. For instance, the Thai-Cambodian issue goes back historically hundreds of years, and are not "issues which will go away”, said Mr Lee.

“But it’s a reality that foreign, external powers have influence over ASEAN countries and ASEAN has to work together despite that, and in many areas we’re still able to do good. It is a valuable organisation to all of us,” he said.

Another issue in the region which Mr Lee said will likely remain is the Myanmar situation, where elections are ongoing amid a humanitarian crisis.

“We hope that they will be able to find their way forward and work out the solution which will lead to a government which should work,” he said.

Mr Lee also clarified what the guiding principle of ASEAN centrality means in response to a question about the bloc’s role.

“I think centrality has become a term of art. What it means is that we convene a meeting, people come, and it’s quite useful that we can convene a meeting because they come and meet each other and discuss it with us,” he said.

“Doesn’t mean that we are centrally directing matters, even amongst ourselves, much less than the rest of the world. You must not mistake a word for reality.”

UNEXPECTED EVENTS

Looking back at the “black swan” events he faced during his time as Prime Minister from August 2004 to May 2024, Mr Lee said that the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were the two that came to mind.

“In both cases, it came quite suddenly. The impact on us was very great, and we had to prepare the population for the impact psychologically, as well as do things which were within our power to secure ourselves and secure our people’s livelihoods and lives,” he said.

“Fortunately, with resources and with support from the people and unity, we were able to come up in both cases much less scarred than we feared.”

When asked by a member of the audience, former Malaysian Deputy Minister for International Trade and Industry Ong Kian Ming, if Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s return as Malaysian prime minister for a second time was also a “black swan” event, Mr Lee said that “we didn’t expect what happened in 2018”.

“Some cooperation projects were reconsidered, some continued, some didn’t. Some new projects which we had hoped to work on, they may not have taken off yet,” he said.

“But external policy always depends on domestic politics. If your domestic politics doesn’t support it or doesn’t give you the bandwidth to make major external decisions, well that’s just the way it is, and we have to wait until the politics enables things to restart.”

Mr Ong also asked Mr Lee about how the Singapore government responded during the period from 2018 to 2022 – when Malaysia saw four different prime ministers in office – and whether that experience left Singapore prepared for a Malaysian prime minister from the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia.

"I think whoever forms the government in Malaysia, we have to work with them, just as whoever forms the government in Singapore, you have to work with us," said Mr Lee, adding that both sides have very different systems.

Singapore is multiracial and operates on the basis of equal opportunity and meritocracy, while Malaysia has a race-based political system and policies, he said.

"It’s the fundamental difference between our two countries and I think, therefore, the relationship is complex, but we have found ways to coexist and to cooperate despite that, and I’m quite confident we will keep on doing that," said Mr Lee.

Asked by Prof Chan if he had fun in his time as Singapore prime minister, Mr Lee laughed and said that he did not think “it’s quite the right mindset with which to approach a job”.

“But it’s a challenge, and it’s one which you look forward to. There is a problem, and we can do something about it, let’s move. I think there’s a good feeling,” he said.