Figures show that the total cost of the all-important Christmas dinner is up 5% on a year ago, with the price of important elements such as pigs in blankets and stuffing up by 7%.

With the cost of living still biting, however, a supermarket price war is taking some of the sting out of high food costs – with Aldi and Lidl selling the ingredients for a main Christmas meal for eight for less than £12.

According to exclusive data prepared for Guardian Money by the analysts Assosia, the price of a frozen extra-large turkey is up 10p a kilogram to £3.70 (a 3% rise on a year ago) – which for an 8kg bird works out at £29.60. Meanwhile, a pack of supermarket own-label pigs in blankets is up 19p at £2.88. Lots of us will be paying quite a bit more for gravy this year: a 190g tub of Bisto gravy granules is up 35p – or 13% – at £2.95. In 2022, it was £2. And a 170g box of Paxo sage and onion stuffing mix is up 17p to £2.57. Compared with 2022, that’s a 51% increase.

Food price inflation has risen to 4.9%. Photograph: Kate Whitaker

However, there is some good news, with price falls for items such as potatoes and yorkshire puddings – down 2p to £1.84 for a 2kg bag of maris piper spuds, and a 14p reduction to £1.11 for a bag of frozen yorkshires. Overall, says Assosia, the total cost of nine key food items is up 5% on last year. These prices are based on the pre-promotion price across four supermarkets: Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons.

Christmas is always an expensive time and, after several years of rising living costs, budgets are tight in many households this year. The last set of official data measured UK inflation at 3.6% in October. But while gas and electricity bills are rising at a slower pace than a year earlier, food price inflation accelerated to 4.9%.

One of the UK’s largest annual studies of festive spending, saving and lifestyle trends found Britons were aiming to save money where they could.

Important findings of the big Christmas survey by Park Christmas Savings include that more than a third of people will not be sending physical cards in part because of higher postage costs, with cuts extending to the Christmas table, too. One-in-three households have now adopted budget-friendly food swaps, choosing supermarket-own brands or simplifying their menusto keep festive costs under control, according to the poll of 5,000 households.

Supermarkets go all out on deals

With supermarket bosses aware that money is tight, a promotional blitz has begun in the aisles, with about one-in-three products on the shelf on special offer.

“It is likely to be the most promotional Christmas we’ve seen in the 2020s,” says Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at the market research firm Worldpanel.

The competitive environment is fuelling a tit for tat in the “Christmas dinner wars”, with Aldi and Lidl going head-to-head to attract cost conscious shoppers.

Giles Hurley, the Aldi chief executive, has thrown down the gauntlet with a pitch to sell the “UK’s lowest-price Christmas dinner”. He says the retailer wants to take the “guesswork out of affordability” by offering the lowest prices now on Christmas dinner veggies, turkey and the trimmings.

Aldi is selling a “full festive feast” for eight for £11.75, or £1.47 a head. The most expensive component is the 3kg fresh British turkey, at £9 (£2.95 a kg), but it is charging pennies for the veg – a tactic that has been criticised by growers – with the potatoes (2kg), brussels sprouts (500g), carrots (1kg) and parsnips (500g) all priced at 8p. (This deal runs from 19 to 24 December.)

McKevitt says: “The supermarkets are really conscious that people are struggling with the cost of living and want to be able to talk about having the cheapest offer for Christmas.”

The Christmas vegetable price war has been criticised by growers. Photograph: Calvin Chan Wai Meng/Getty Images

Frozen or fresh turkey?

Worldpanel also tracks prices, and by its measure, the data shows that the average cost of a Christmas dinner for four people has fallen by a penny to £32.46.

Its analysis showed that the cost of a frozen turkey, the most expensive component of an average Christmas dinner, has fallen by 4% to £13.52. However, the cost of all the trimmings has risen: the price of four portions of potatoes has risen 1% to £1.67, cranberry sauce has increased by 10% to 86p, and stuffing mix is up by 7% to 96p.

With UK poultry producers battling a “bad season” of bird flu that has affected supplies of Christmas birds, many will be surprised to read headlines about cheaper, albeit frozen, birds.

Turkey is the most expensive component of an average Christmas dinner. Photograph: Jordan Lye/Getty Images

Paul Kelly, the managing director of KellyBronze, which produces free-range turkeys in Essex, says the picture is being distorted by supermarket price cuts. “It’s not that the cost hasn’t gone up. It’s because retailers are sacrificing margin – they’re loss-leading.

“We gave up trying to compete with that years ago because they are losing a fortune on turkeys. The rationale is that they’re going to attract people in to buy the rest of their shop if they sell the turkey cheap.”

While on some measures you may be able to pick up a frozen turkey that is a bit cheaper than last year, about 70% of Britons opt for a fresh one. With the quality of the bird an important concern for many households, the average KellyBronze customer spends £95-£100.

Kelly says higher business taxes and labour costs contributed to a 4.8% increase in running expenses this year, and it has no option but to pass that on to customers. “We can’t afford not to.”

Retailers up game on own-label ranges

With Worldpanel putting annual grocery price inflation at 4.7%** **in November, McKevitt says: “People are trading down. They’re broadly buying the same volume of food but choosing cheaper items.”

For many shoppers this means swapping big brand names for cheaper supermarket own-label items. With this in mind, the big supermarkets have been investing in their top-end, own-label brands – such as Tesco Finest and Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference – so people can still feel as if they are treating themselves.

Given the horse-trading required to balance family budgets, analysts say savvy consumers need more than ever to shop around for the best deals – and best-tasting products.

For the latter, it is worth consulting the festive taste tests conducted by the Good Housekeeping Institute (GHI) and Which?, as well as the Guardian reviews site The Filter.

This year, for some traditional Christmas foods such as mince pies, low-cost brands have triumphed over more expensive stores.

You could opt for supermarket fizz. Photograph: gregory_lee/Getty Images

After testing almost 700 festive foods, GHI crowned Waitrose the overall winner, with its £14 No.1 Pistachio & Cherry Stollen Wreath and £3 No.1 Golden Mince Pies with Limoncello (which judges said offered the “acidic kiss of a zippy lemon liqueur”) among the standouts.

But no-frills rival Asda finished second with a handful of wins, including for its Exceptional by Asda Yule Log (£5.47) and Heritage Slate Turkey Crown (£50.04/2kg) and praise for its wines. In the fiercely contested “classic” mince pie category Iceland came out on top with its £3 Luxury All Butter Mince Pies.

Callum Black, the GHI’s deputy head of testing, says festive meals are being shaped by cost of living pressures, and it has noted the rise of “cost-conscious alternative meats for Christmas lunch”.

Black says: “Although it’s not uncommon to see a big, glazed gammon on the menu, we’re seeing the emergence of high-quality large cuts of pork, from trimmed racks to sirloins, making for a value-focused but utterly delicious option that’s just as good cold in a Boxing Day sandwich.”

Katherine Scott, the director of marketing for Park Christmas Savings, sums up the mood: “What we’re seeing across the board is a more thoughtful, more intentional Christmas. Women, who continue to shoulder most of the planning and budgeting, are finding smart ways to keep the season joyful while staying in control of costs.”