BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 22. Agriculture remains one of the main sectors of Kyrgyzstan’s economy, providing employment for a significant share of the population and playing an important role in shaping the country’s food security. Simultaneously, the agricultural sector often finds itself at the mercy of natural and climatic conditions, the accessibility of water resources, and the state of technological infrastructure. The overall resilience of the food system hinges on these factors.

In this context, the results of agricultural production in 2025 allow for an assessment of current structural trends. Grain crops were harvested on an area of approximately 605,900 hectares, with total grain output - excluding legumes, rice, and buckwheat in post-processing weight - amounting to around 1.8 million tons, which is below the previous year’s figures. Average yields were about 29 centners per hectare, reflecting the combined impact of weather conditions and the applied agricultural technologies.

The decline in total grain output is largely linked to the dynamics of key crops. In 2025, there was a notable decline in the output of wheat and barley, which have historically been essential components of the domestic food equilibrium. The prominence of these crops in consumption dynamics means that their downturn elevates the significance of alternative agricultural sectors and amplifies the reliance on external supply channels.

At the same time, signs of a shift in production priorities have emerged within the agricultural sector. Compared to the previous year, the gross harvest of maize, rice, vegetables, fruit and berry crops, and melons increased. Growth in these areas indicates a gradual diversification of agricultural production and an expansion of the product range aimed at the domestic market and regional trade.

The increase in vegetable and fruit production is significant not only in terms of volume but also regarding the quality of the food supply. However, the impact of these segments on food security largely depends on the availability of storage, processing, and logistics infrastructure, as without it, production growth may be accompanied by seasonal losses and price volatility.

Alongside the growth in certain food crops, 2025 saw a substantial decline in the production of industrial crops. Gross harvests of sugar beet, tobacco, cotton, and oilseeds fell significantly, which may reflect changes in the structure of sown areas, market signals, and profitability levels. Additionally, production of potatoes and legumes, which have historically been pivotal in ensuring food stability for households - particularly in agrarian regions - has also seen a decline.

Taken together, these trends create a mixed picture of Kyrgyzstan’s food security. On one hand, there is potential for diversification and growth in certain sectors; on the other, the decline in key grain crops increases the domestic market’s dependence on imports and heightens sensitivity to external price fluctuations. In such circumstances, food security is determined not only by the volume of domestic production but also by product availability, household income levels, and the stability of trade and logistics chains.

In the medium term, several development trajectories are possible. Grain production could stabilize or recover under favorable agro-meteorological conditions and if current sown areas are maintained. Simultaneously, the move towards vegetables, fruit and berry crops, and rice could persist, resulting in additional structural transformations in agriculture. If the drop in wheat and barley keeps up, we might find ourselves leaning more on imports to satisfy our local needs. Investments in irrigation, storage, and processing have the potential to enhance sector resilience, while climatic and market factors may continue to cause significant fluctuations in production and supply, shaping different scenarios for the country’s food security.