EVANSVILLE – The Evansville/Tri-State area could get anywhere from 5 to 12 inches of snow between Friday night and Sunday evening.

The Paducah, Kentucky office of the National Weather Service issued that warning in its latest update Wednesday, putting the entire Tri-State on alert for a winter storm that could snarl traffic, bring days of widespread school and business closures, and plunge the area in frigid temperatures until at least the middle of next week.

Exact snow totals are still up in the air, NWS lead forecaster Justin Gibbs said in a conference call with media outlets. But "everyone (across the Tri-State) will have something."

“And we’ll probably something significant enough that you’re going to have major travel impacts," he said.

Evansville and Henderson, Kentucky are now included under a winter storm watch. Locales don’t earn that designation unless they face the likelihood of 4 inches of snow or more. Gibbs said NWS will likely issue a winter storm warning on Thursday.

A graphic from the Paducah, Kentucky office of the National Weather Service shows Evansville has a 30-40% chance of "major impacts" from a winter storm that could sweep into the area between Jan. 23 and Jan. 25, 2026.

How much snow could Evansville get?

That’s still unfolding.

Gibbs said totals could vary wildly between Southwestern Indiana and parts of Western Kentucky. A "heavier band" of snow about 40 miles wide will sweep through the area Saturday, bringing "eye-popping numbers" – as much as 16 inches in places.

As of Wednesday, NWS had Evansville perched at the northern end of that possible band, meaning parts of the city could get the worst of it. It could also stay well south.

The Evansville area currently has a 60-80% chance of 4 inches of snow or more, and a 50-60% chance of 6 inches or more.

Whatever we get will stick around. Gibbs said the Tri-State won’t even flirt with above-freezing temperatures until Tuesday or Wednesday. The heavy snow pack will make reaching that plateau even harder, meaning some residents could be stuck inside for five days or more.

When will the snow start?

Gibbs said it will likely come in waves. The first will arrive sometime between late Friday night and early Saturday morning, with a second, heavier blast later on Saturday.

A graphic from the National Weather Service shows the potential for dangerous wind chills in the Evansville area.

Cold could bring ‘life-threatening’ travel conditions

But the snow isn’t the only thing to worry about.

The high temperature on Saturday won’t get out of the mid-teens in Evansville, while the low will be in the single-digits. Wind chills, meanwhile, could dip well below zero both Saturday and Sunday night.

Gibbs cautioned against any kind of travel during the coldest stretches. Conditions could be "life-threatening" if a person gets stuck in the snow after a wreck.

What about ice and freezing rain?

This is one of the few positive notes in all this mess: the likelihood of freezing rain in the Evansville area is very low.

Forecast models shared by NWS Wednesday didn’t show freezing rain drifting any farther north than the Hopkinsville, Kentucky area. And it may not even get there. That means we shouldn’t, at least as of now, get a repeat performance of January 2025.

Despite our likely troubles, that will make us lucky compared to the southeastern swath of the U.S.

A behemoth line of "dangerous" freezing rain and ice could swallow everywhere from Central Texas to the Carolinas, the NWS Prediction Center believes, putting millions of Americans in the path of "widespread power outages" and "treacherous travel conditions."

OK, how about wind?

Despite the dangerous wind chills, the actual severity of the breezes should be relatively tame. Gibbs said winds across the Tri-State will likely top out at 12 miles per hour.

He told some Kentucky officials to "prepare" for possible power outages, but didn’t paint them as potentially widespread.

What should I do to protect myself and my home?

As always, the NWS urged everyone to avoid unnecessary travel during the stretches of heavy snow and brutal cold.

Residents should also stock up on emergency supplies in both their homes and vehicles. That includes plenty of food, batteries, and warm clothes – coats, hats, gloves, scarves, the whole bit.

You should also leave your faucets dripping Friday night through at least Wednesday night to help keep pipes from freezing. If you do lose power, keep any generators at least 20 feet from your house, and don’t cover space heaters with blankets or clothes.

Is there still a chance we don’t get much snow?

Sure, but that’s getting less and less likely as the hours and days wear on. Gibbs said cold air pushing in from the north will create a barrier resulting in "sharp cutoffs" in snow totals.

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"You’ll have maybe 5, 6 inches in a place, and then you’ll have 1 or 2 or less (nearby)," he said. "But it does look increasingly likely that cutoff is going to be northwest” of the area.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: How much is it going to snow in Evansville?