How the US vs. Anthropic Standoff on Claude Fable Will End (opens in new tab)

A scenario forecast of how the US government's suspension of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 resolves. The outcome depends on why the order was issued, which is hidden, so I forecast four cause-scenarios and what each implies for restoration timing, Mythos's fate, Anthropic's concessions, and the endgame. Headline: Fable back for US persons around mid-July (about 29% by July 1, under the markets' ~57%), foreign access probably not in 2026, Mythos durably gated, and a negotiated compromise as the ...