Making Progress

It is by no means certain that Russia will be able to fix Site 31 soon.

Plumes are seen from the SpaceX Cargo Dragon resupply ship’s Draco engines as they fire following its undocking from the International Space Station. Credit: NASA

With a key Russian launch pad out of service, NASA is accelerating the launch of two Cargo Dragon spaceships in order to ensure that astronauts on board the International Space Station have all the supplies they need next year.

According to the space agency’s internal schedule, the next Dragon supply mission, CRS-34, is moving forward one month from June 2026 to May. And the next Dragon supply mission after this, CRS-35, has been advanced three months from November to August.

A source indicated that the changing schedules are a “direct result” of a launch pad incident on Thanksgiving Day at the Russian spaceport in Baikonur, Kazakhstan.

The issue occurred when a Soyuz rocket launched Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergei Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikayev, as well as NASA astronaut Christopher Williams, on an eight-month mission to the International Space Station. The rocket had no difficulties, but a large mobile platform below the rocket was not properly secured prior to the launch and crashed into the flame trench below, taking the pad offline.

Repairs require at least four months

Russia has other launch pads, both within its borders and neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan, that were formerly part of the Soviet Union. However, Site 31 at Baikonur is the country’s only pad presently configured to handle launches of the Soyuz rocket and two spacecraft critical to the space station, the cargo-only Progress vehicle and the Soyuz crew capsule.

Since the accident Russia’s main space corporation, Roscosmos, has been assessing plans to repair the Site 31 launch site and begun to schedule the delivery of spare parts. Roscosmos officials have told NASA it will take at least four months to repair the site and recover the capability to launch from there.

Progress vehicles serve multiple functions for the space station, including the delivery of supplies to Russian cosmonauts, as well as propellant for maintaining the facility’s altitude. A Progress mission that had been scheduled for December has been canceled, with the next one now scheduled for no earlier than March, according to NASA’s internal planning.

NASA has other options

The decision by NASA to bring forward the two Dragon missions indicates a desire by the US space agency to ensure there is enough food, water, oxygen, and other supplies on board should the revised schedule for visiting Progress vehicles slip.

It is by no means certain that Russia will be able to fix the Site 31 launch infrastructure during the next four months. The average temperature during winter months is typically well below 0 degrees Celsius, and the country’s economic and industrial resources have largely been devoted to a war against Ukraine, rather than civil activities such as human spaceflight.

Fortunately NASA has other resources it can call on beyond Dragon. A Northrop Grumman supply vehicle, Cygnus, could be ready to fly as early as April 2026. And Japan has a new cargo ship as well, HTV-X, which could deliver supplies next summer.

So for NASA and the international partnership that operates the space station, the damage at Site 31 is unlikely to become acute unless work is delayed into next fall—when Progress vehicles will be needed for propellant delivery and Soyuz spacecraft to relieve the crew in orbit.

Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.