Summary
- Netflix’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (or, for Skydance/Paramount $108 billion) faces steep antitrust scrutiny, high debt, and significant integration risks.
- WBD’s vast IP library is subject to rapid value decay, with AI and new media accelerating obsolescence and challenging the deal’s revenue upside.
- Netflix’s debt would surge to nearly $100 billion post-acquisition, am…
Summary
- Netflix’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (or, for Skydance/Paramount $108 billion) faces steep antitrust scrutiny, high debt, and significant integration risks.
- WBD’s vast IP library is subject to rapid value decay, with AI and new media accelerating obsolescence and challenging the deal’s revenue upside.
- Netflix’s debt would surge to nearly $100 billion post-acquisition, amplifying exposure to long-term interest rate movements and financial risk.
- I rate WBD as neutral and NFLX and Skydance as sells, citing deal uncertainty, prolonged regulatory review, and likely slower profit growth for whichever company’s bid for WBD prevails.
- The Netflix deal is not a "lock". The "winner" will likely be the "loser".
Jacek_Sopotnicki/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
Combo of streamers HBO Max and Netflix or Paramount+ will be subject to aggressive antitrust review. Price is steep as talent is upended and/or displaced. Debt levels and interest rate changes will
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