Summary
- I believe MSTR is still a leveraged Bitcoin bet that trades about 18% above my simplified BTC-NAV/share.
- I upgraded to Hold on a mor…
Summary
- I believe MSTR is still a leveraged Bitcoin bet that trades about 18% above my simplified BTC-NAV/share.
- I upgraded to Hold on a more supportive outlook for BTC, considering the (likely) Fed rate cut this week and a more dovish stance in 2026.
- Strategy’s Q4 setup looks rough. The original $150k year-end BTC assumption was unrealistic, and management later shifted to an $85k–$110k range (midpoint 35% lower).
- I’m not buying the dip because dilution risk rises if capital markets tighten. Basic shares are up 20% YTD, and the company issued 8.214M shares on December 1.
Jonathan Knowles/DigitalVision via Getty Images
In my last coverage on Strategy (MSTR), I downgraded the stock to a Strong Sell on the view that a tougher macro backdrop would pressure Bitcoin and, by extension, MSTR. Take into consideration that my
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Quick Insights
MSTR trades about 18% above BTC-NAV/share, so if the premium compresses or BTC falls, shareholders face greater downside than holding BTC directly.
Ongoing equity issuance—20% share count growth YTD—dilutes existing holders, especially if capital markets weaken or BTC price declines, amplifying risk.
Management cut year-end BTC price guidance by 35%, now expecting $85,000–$110,000, signaling reduced optimism and limiting near-term upside for MSTR.