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Summary

• Ten-year Treasury yields gained five bps to a three-month high of 4.18%.
• The cryptocurrencies were back under pressure late in the week.
• The Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $40 billion of Treasury bills a month, a bigger chunk than previously expected, triggered a flurry of revisions in Wall Street banks’ 2026 debt issuance forecasts while sending borrowing costs lower.
• The S&P 500 dipped 0.6% (up 16.1% y-t-d), while the Dow gained 1.0% (up 13.9%).

gorodenkoff/iStock via Getty Images

Global bond yields continued their march higher - Germany, Portugal, Italy, and Greece another six bps. Ten-year Treasury yields gained five bps to a three-month high of 4.18%. The cryptocurrencies were back under pressure late in the week. Gold surged $102 and Silver 6.2% - to

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Quick Insights

Oracle’s heavy AI investment and delayed data center completions have pushed its bonds toward junk status, with credit default swap spreads hitting 16-year highs and raising systemic concerns.

The Fed’s $40bn/month T-bill purchases inject liquidity but fail to address speculative leverage, potentially exacerbating asset bubbles and increasing the risk of destabilizing deleveraging cycles.

Debt-financed AI buildouts, with estimates up to $10 trillion, are driving record M&A and leveraged lending, heightening fears of a bubble and potential pain for equity and credit holders if valuations correct.

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