Keeping Probabilities Honest: The Jacobian Adjustment
towardsdatascience.com·2d
🎯Arithmetic Coding Theory
Preview
Report Post

Introduction

customer annoyance from wait times. Calls arrive randomly, so wait time X follows an Exponential distribution—most waits are short, a few are painfully long.

Now I’d argue that annoyance isn’t linear: a 10-minute wait feels more than twice as bad as a 5-minute one. So you decide to model “annoyance units” as (Y = X²).

Simple, right? Just take the pdf of X, replace x with (\sqrt{y}), and you’re done.

You plot it. It looks reasonable—peaked near zero, long tail.

But what if you actually computed the CDF? You would expect 1 right?

The result? 2.

*** Short numpy snippet to confirm this***

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy.stats import expon

# CDF of Exponential(1): F(x) = 1 - exp(-x) for x >= 0
def cdf_exp(x):
return 1 - np....

Similar Posts

Loading similar posts...