Myanmar’s military has managed to regain momentum in its battle against a determined patchwork of opposition groups, retaking some territory, and pushing ahead with a widely condemned election that begins on Sunday.

It is a turnaround for the military, which had appeared so beleaguered that some dared to question if it could collapse.

Analysts point to China, and its shifting support, as one of the most important factors that has changed the dynamics in a five-year conflict that first erupted after the 2021 coup.

“This is really all China playing a role in tilting things in favour of the military regime,” says Jason Tower, senior expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime who is focused on Myanmar. Beijing has used border closures to put pressure on powerful ethnic armed groups in the north of the country to agree ceasefires, and even hand back territory to the military, as it has stepped up diplomatic support and continued weapon transfers.

“The newer drone technologies [introduced to the military] that’s related to China, the pressure on ethnic armed organisations, reducing the amount of resistance that the junta was facing in the northern part of the country, that’s on China,” he added. China has also introduced the military into platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization* *Summit, boosting its international standing, added Tower.

Civil war continues to rage across much of the country, with the military still unable to control vast areas of territory, but China’s support has at least allowed it to regain some ground.

Map of territory lost by the military junta since 2021

China is no particular fan of Myanmar’s military, however. While it sells weapons to the junta, it also has ties with armed groups against which the military is fighting. China’s approach to both sides has changed.

Beijing’s response to the coup was initially muted, but it became increasingly displeased by the conflict and economic chaos that followed, as new pro-democracy groups took up arms to fight the junta, at times in collaboration with more established ethnic armed groups that have long fought for greater autonomy.

China, which shares a 2,185km (1,358-mile) border with Myanmar, is a major investor in the country, and has ambitious plans to build a corridor through Myanmar directly connecting south-western China to the Indian Ocean. Its infrastructure projects have been severely disrupted by the post-coup fighting, however.

China has grown frustrated not only by the spiralling conflict, but also by the explosion in organised crime. It was anger over the proliferation in scam compounds in border areas that led China to give its tacit approval to northern-based ethnic armed groups to launch an offensive against the junta in late 2023. Such groups rely on the Chinese border for supplies of weapons.

These northern ethnic armed groups entering into the post-coup conflict took the military by surprise, and vast swathes of territory fell.

It was at this point that China “corrected course”, said Morgan Michaels, research fellow for south-east Asian security and defence at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, with China using border closures to push the ethnic armed groups into backing down. “Did China really ever intend to make those groups so strong that they were going to topple the Myanmar state apparatus? I don’t think so – because as soon as that became a possibility, China stepped in,” said Michaels.

China disapproved of the coup because of the instability it has brought – but it feared that, were the junta to collapse, even greater chaos could follow.

Keeping Beijing happy

For now, China has thrown its weight behind the Myanmar military and its election plans, which have been condemned by monitors and UN experts as a sham. Earlier this year the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, expressed hope the vote would achieve “domestic peace with a cessation of hostilities among parties and national governance based on the will of the people”, as well as national reconciliation and “social harmony”, according to China’s foreign ministry. It will send election observers, alongside countries including Russia and Vietnam.

There is no true opposition running in the vote, which will be dominated by the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development party, which is providing more than a fifth of candidates and running in effect uncontested in some areas. Under the constitution, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is obliged to assume the role of either the president, commander-in-chief or parliamentary speaker – though many believe he will be unwilling to relinquish power.

The military has reassured China, saying that economic projects will go ahead, and has vowed to crack down on scam compounds, after bombing parts of the infamous KK Park compound over recent months. It’s unclear whether the military will be able to keep its promises, however.

It is possible that, if the military is seen by China as squandering opportunities to form ceasefires with its opponents, or if, in two years’ time there is still no progress on infrastructure projects, Beijing may pivot away from the military again, said Tower.

Anti-China sentiment has risen in Myanmar, including a perception that China is stoking conflict to increase its own leverage over the country – a characterisation Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China programme at the Stimson Center, disputes.

“China doesn’t need a war to exert influence over any of the political players in the country,” she said.

“I think what the Chinese will say is that they see the situation as a dynamism, that a balance of power will eventually lead to some stability,” she said. “Neither side is necessarily the horse that China has picked.”