Hacker News Oracles Comments Leaderboard
What are you predictions for Year ?
Scored top-level Hacker News predictions with brief LLM explanations. HN thread
95
1. Technology and AI Generative AI: Widespread integration of AI tools in workplaces for productivity and creativity. Quantum Computing: Advances in quantum computing could bring breakthroughs in problem-solving for industries like healthcare and finance. AI Regulation: Governments may introduce stricter AI regulations to ensure ethical use and minimize risks. Space Exploration: Private and public sector missions (e.g., SpaceX, NASA, ISRO) will push further…
Hacker News Oracles Comments Leaderboard
What are you predictions for Year ?
Scored top-level Hacker News predictions with brief LLM explanations. HN thread
95
1. Technology and AI Generative AI: Widespread integration of AI tools in workplaces for productivity and creativity. Quantum Computing: Advances in quantum computing could bring breakthroughs in problem-solving for industries like healthcare and finance. AI Regulation: Governments may introduce stricter AI regulations to ensure ethical use and minimize risks. Space Exploration: Private and public sector missions (e.g., SpaceX, NASA, ISRO) will push further into space, with a focus on lunar exploration and Mars missions. 2. Economic Trends Global Recession or Recovery: Many economies may face challenges with inflation and recession, though emerging markets might show resilience. Remote Work Evolution: Hybrid work models will mature, and gig economy platforms may grow. Crypto Regulation: Stricter crypto policies in countries aiming to stabilize financial markets. 3. Environment and Climate Climate Action: Countries and corporations will focus on green technologies like renewable energy, EVs, and carbon capture. Extreme Weather: Climate change may lead to more unpredictable weather patterns, pushing sustainable living to the forefront. Biodiversity: Efforts to protect ecosystems and endangered species will become more urgent. 4. Education and Skill Development Online Education: EdTech platforms will continue to innovate, with more AI-powered personalization. Demand for Skills: High demand for skills like data analytics, AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and sustainable development practices. 5. Health and Well-Being Healthcare Tech: Continued focus on telemedicine, wearable devices, and AI-driven diagnostics. Mental Health: Increased societal focus on mental health, with improved access to virtual therapies. Pandemic Preparedness: Investment in early warning systems and vaccines for future pandemics. 6. Society and Culture Digital Communities: Growth of communities in spaces like Discord, Reddit, and LinkedIn for networking and learning. Minimalism: Post-pandemic shifts toward minimalism and sustainability in lifestyle choices. Entertainment: Growth in immersive experiences like VR gaming and metaverse spaces.
Score explanation
The comment contains 15 distinct predictions about technological, economic, and social trends for 2025. As it is currently 2025, all 15 predictions (such as AI integration, hybrid work, and green tech focus) are verified as correct and non-trivial. The high score reflects the high volume of accurate, specific forecasts.
92
- More widespread use of AI in everyday applications - Hybrid work models become the standard. More companies embrace "digital-first" policies - More AR/VR applications in daily life - Lab-grown meat and plant-based protein alternatives will become more mainstream - Investment and adoption of renewable energy technologies like solar, wind, and geothermal will accelerate - Further development of CRISPR and other gene editing tools - Companies will prioritize building more resilient and diversified supply chains - 3D printing technology will continue to evolve, enabling the printing of more complex objects with a wider range of materials - AI will drive even more targeted advertising and content recommendations - Drone delivery services will become more common for transporting goods, particularly in rural areas and for time-sensitive deliveries - Research and development of biodegradable and compostable materials will accelerate - Robots and automated systems will become more sophisticated and capable - Increased use of biometrics for identification and authentication - Further integration of AI into creative fields - Processing power moves closer to the data source (e.g., smart devices), reducing latency and enabling faster, more efficient applications - Shifting demographics reshape economies and social structures - Growing awareness of the potential negative impacts of technology on mental health leads to tools and practices for healthier digital habits - Increased emphasis on lifelong learning and reskilling
Score explanation
The comment contains 18 distinct predictions about technological and social trends. As of 2025, 16 of these are considered correct or largely realized, such as the ubiquity of AI, hybrid work, and renewable energy acceleration. The high score reflects the high volume of specific, non-trivial predictions that have proven accurate by the current year.
92
1. AI regulation becomes fragmented and messy as different jurisdictions implement contradictory rules. The EU’s AI Act creates a "Brussels effect" but China and the US take divergent approaches, creating headaches for global tech companies. 2. "AI-free" becomes a marketing term like "organic." Premium services start advertising human-only customer service, human-written content, and AI-free creative work. A certification industry emerges around this. 3. Climate tech sees a boom in investment as extreme weather events continue to drive home the urgency. Particular focus on grid-scale energy storage and carbon capture technologies. 4. The "nearshoring" trend accelerates, with Mexico and Eastern Europe becoming major manufacturing hubs as companies seek alternatives to China while staying relatively close to major markets. 5. The first mainstream consumer AR glasses hit the market, but like early smartphones, they’re clunky and limited. The real impact is in industrial and professional applications. 6. Remote work stabilizes at a new equilibrium: most tech companies settle into a hybrid model with 2-3 office days per week. Fully remote becomes less common as companies optimize for "collaboration days." 7. The web3/crypto world pivots hard toward "real world assets" and practical financial applications, moving away from speculation. Smart contract platforms become boring but useful infrastructure. 8. A major cybersecurity crisis involving AI models leads to a fundamental rethinking of model deployment and security practices. "Model poisoning" becomes the new ransomware. 9. The shortage of high-end GPUs starts to ease as new fabs come online, but the industry faces a new bottleneck in networking equipment and specialized AI accelerators. 10. Traditional higher education faces a crisis as employers increasingly accept alternative credentials and bootcamps. Several mid-tier universities merge or shut down. - Claude | when asked for hacker news style prediction. I agree with most predictions.
Score explanation
The comment contains 10 distinct and specific predictions about technology and society. As of 2025, 8 of these (including AI regulation fragmentation, hybrid work stabilization, and the rise of ‘AI-free’ branding) have proven largely accurate, while the AR glasses and GPU bottleneck predictions remain in progress or partially realized.
92
Social Media and Communication: * TikTok will continue to dominate engagement among social media platforms, but a new platform blending immersive elements (like augmented reality) and privacy will emerge, attracting younger and corporate audiences. * Facebook (Meta) will persist but lose relevance among younger users. Its strength will lie in niche communities and integration with AR/VR products like the Meta Quest. Technology and Computing: * Generative AI will be widely integrated into productivity tools (emails, text editors, coding, graphic design), but stricter regulations will emerge, especially in the European Union. * Quantum computing will see notable advancements but remain restricted to experimental and governmental use. A "quantum moment" comparable to the "cloud moment" of the 2010s could emerge after 2030. * Smartphones will plateau in innovation, with greater focus on sustainability, repairability, and seamless integration with wearables. Economy and Work: * Remote work will solidify as the norm in many industries, especially technology and creative fields. However, well-structured hybrid models will become the standard for large corporations. * Cryptocurrencies will remain volatile, but related technologies, such as blockchain for contracts and utility-driven NFTs, will gain practical relevance, especially in finance and real estate. Energy and Environment: * Electric vehicles will represent over 50% of sales in developed markets. Pressure to build charging infrastructure in rural and remote areas will significantly increase. * Renewable energy sources (solar and wind) will attract more investment, but storage challenges (batteries and green hydrogen) will remain a major bottleneck. * Global climate action will remain fragmented. Extreme weather events, like severe droughts and floods, will catalyze regional adaptation efforts, but global cooperation will be limited by political disputes. Health and Biotechnology: * CRISPR-based therapies for rare genetic diseases will achieve regulatory approval in several countries, though costs will initially limit accessibility. * Telemedicine will become even more widespread, including real-time AI diagnostics, but ethical and privacy challenges will arise in less-regulated regions. * Pandemics will remain a global concern, but early monitoring systems powered by AI and genetic sequencing will significantly reduce mortality from new outbreaks. Culture and Society: * The popularity of "retro-futuristic" aesthetics and digital escapism will grow, especially in gaming, films, and interactive entertainment. * Increasing awareness of mental health will lead to broader acceptance of practices like meditation and alternative therapies, integrated into conventional healthcare systems. * Social and environmental rights movements will gain momentum but face opposition from conservative groups, driving polarization in countries like the U.S. and Brazil. Geopolitics and Society: * China will expand its technological and diplomatic influence but face internal tensions with regional pro-democracy movements. * The European Union will solidify its role as a regulatory leader in technology and environmental policy, while the U.S. focuses on technological and military dominance. * Artificial intelligence will be used both for misinformation and security, sparking a new "digital arms race." Education and Science: * Hybrid educational models will be widely adopted, with AR and AI technologies personalizing curricula and teaching methods. * Space exploration will yield new milestones, including a manned mission to the * Moon and advancements in Mars exploration, paving the way for settlements in the 2030s. Unexpected Future Trends: * A currently underestimated technology, such as ambient computing (intelligent environments with sensors and automation), may become ubiquitous. * There will be a revival of local communities and self-sufficiency (urban gardening, home renewable energy) as a response to growing digital control and corporate dominance.
Score explanation
The comment contains 22 distinct predictions across various sectors, most of which align with the current state of 2025, such as AI integration, EV market share, and remote work trends. With 18 correct or highly accurate assessments of the current landscape, it demonstrates high foresight and specificity.
88
We progressively advance towards Cyberpunk: - governments around the world proceed with bowing to megacorps/cults/mobs; - entire jobs disappear to AI [1], people are told that they "just need to" learn a new job, at the age of 50+; - money is further diverted from fundamental research and towards AI, because governments and private institutions are convinced that AI will magically solve the world’s problems; - AGI remains 6 months away; - nuclear fusion remains 3 years away; - as Pax Americana disappears, the UN remains paralyzed and the EU remains in crisis, international relations return to wolf-at-the-door style anarchy [2] and generalized economic+proxy wars; - new crypto boom (possibly followed immediately by large correction); - with further deregulation and wars, we proceed to destroy the Earth and ignore the consequences, predicting that AI will somehow solve it; - as a consequence of both international anarchy and environmental collapse, record number of refugees; - as a consequence of major despair, ecoterrorism, ploutoterrorism (is there a better way for a CEO getting shot?), fascioterrorism start becoming fashionable; - eventually, a truce/occupation in Gaza; - no war in Taiwan just yet; - some Line-of-Control-style truce in Ukraine [3]; - more escapism, with the budget for super-hero movies, video-games, etc. increasing; - lots of AI crap, with GenAI-written books saturating Amazon, GenAI-written content saturating social networks, GenAI-written content replacing journalists in at least one major news source, a few semi-experimental GenAI-written movies and/or videogames; - generally speaking, people understand less and less the world around them, because their news sources more and more filled with disinformation and random crap; - companies still believe that AI will magically solve all their problems; - Netflix starts generating series with GenAI (although the release might not be in 2025); - companies that sell hardware and services to company that try to adopt AI make lots of money; - we do not hit planetary limits for AI yet, but we inch closer; - rich countries (perhaps with the exception of China) further decrease their investment in education; - the signs show that the economy is just fine, so no need to change anything. [1] Despite AI not necessarily being able to do their job. [2] That kind of anarchy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchy_(international_relatio... . [3] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Control
Score explanation
The comment contains 18 distinct predictions about geopolitical and technological trends in 2025. As of early 2025, 14 of these are largely correct or trending accurately, such as the saturation of GenAI content, the ‘6 months away’ AGI trope, and the continued profitability of AI hardware providers. The high score reflects a high volume of specific, non-trivial predictions with a strong accuracy rate.
85
Get ready for your AI Smart Toaster.. On a serious note 2025 will be year of AI and Tools. Prepared to have AI on every damn thing that you visit digitally. Another step towards autonomous driving. Short content becoming more popular.
Score explanation
The comment makes 4 distinct predictions regarding AI integration, digital tools, autonomous driving progress, and short-form content growth. Given it is currently 2025, all 4 predictions align with current market trends and technological realities, warranting a high score for accuracy.
75
* drone tech will heat up and find its "moment." * Bitcoin will continue to increase in price and decrease in usability. * Quantum will continue to improve and start to raise eyebrows in niche circles and paper headlines, leading to adoption in small parts of major tech companies. * Markets will hit a record high by end of year. * ADHD medications will also hit a record high. * More people will opt out social media like they opt of out of "GMO" food and use it to virtue-signal. * Tech hiring will continue to decrease and get tougher to find entry-level SWE jobs, leading to an uptick in other majors. Being an SWE will never be as cool again as it was in the 2010s. * Is anyone still talking about climate change action goals? * Starship will go orbital, Blue origin will go suborbital, Boeing will hit the ground. * More laws regulating internet and social media use. Enforcement will be fuzzy and laughable at first but will become increasingly serious over time.
Score explanation
The comment contains 10 distinct predictions. As of early 2025, 6 are considered correct or trending accurately (Bitcoin price, market highs, ADHD med demand, SWE hiring trends, Starship progress, and internet regulation), while others remain speculative or subjective. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with a solid majority being currently verifiable or highly probable.
65
Program synthesis becomes the trendword in AI, just as RAG was in 2024. AI apps become increasingly versatile and useful, further hiking up the ladder for knowledge work, and in general commodifying many domains; very slowly by end of 2025, but surely.
Score explanation
The comment makes 3 predictions: the rise of ‘program synthesis’ as a buzzword, increased versatility of AI apps, and the commodification of knowledge work. As of early 2025, 2 of these (program synthesis and app versatility) are observable trends, while the long-term commodification remains to be fully seen.
65
* I was hoping for that this year, but: split of LLMs into databases and reasoning. Think small, capable PHI with pluggable information. Currently we’re burning a lot of energy both to learn and process everything at once. The next step will be something closer to RAG, potentially selecting databases to load depending on topic, like a librarian. This will both enable more client-side applications and save lots of money for providers. * Some AI provider seriously looking at / funding RWVK? * (More) Healthcare issues in the US, spilling into other countries. (or just the beginning of them anyway - effects will last much longer and life expectancy will decline) * Some companies seriously looking at AI as another manager / decision maker. Quietly, not as a publicity stunt like it’s done now. * Google search market share falling further. Maybe 85%, down from the current 90%. (more of a wish than a prediction) * US policies / ideas around cryptocurrency will be wildly incoherent, causing big swings every month * Consumer RISC-V laptops (again, wishlist)
Score explanation
The comment contains 7 distinct predictions ranging from architectural shifts in AI to US healthcare and crypto policy. As of 2025, 4 predictions are largely correct (AI architectural shifts toward RAG/reasoning, AI in management, Google’s market share decline, and incoherent US crypto policy), while others remain speculative or unfulfilled. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with moderate accuracy.
65
Google and AI companies will continue to plunder the web. Websites - especially small independent ones - will see further traffic losses to AI summaries of their content.
Score explanation
The comment makes 2 predictions regarding AI companies plundering the web and small sites losing traffic to summaries, both of which are currently observed trends in 2025. Since both predictions are accurate but somewhat broad, the score reflects a high accuracy rate for a small number of predictions.
65
In 2025: 1. Viral LLM-based game will be released, new trend emerges 2. Sora-like (AI generated) content floods Internet, significant advancements in that field 2a. Maybe a new kind of addictive video content generator is being released. Possibly for porn 3. AI generated music becomes popular and takes significant market share on Spotify (but it’s going to be a music meant to play "in the background", like in supermarket) 4. Significant competitor to Google Search becomes popular. Mostly because of Internet becoming closed due to crawlers gathering data for training. Much less data available publicly, rise of "closed gardens". 5. SpaceX successfully launches payload to orbit with Starship and catches both stages. 6. Much more debris on Earth’s orbit, dangerous incident in space because of that 7. VR remains a niche 8. More and more users start using voice to control their personal computers
Score explanation
The comment contains 9 distinct predictions about 2025. As of early 2025, 5 are largely correct (Sora-like content, AI background music, Starship progress, VR remaining niche, and the rise of walled gardens), while others like a viral LLM game or a major space debris incident remain unproven or pending. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with a moderate accuracy rate.
65
Introduction of more consumer hardware that resemble industrial hardware (crazy expensive, crazy features or quality or driven by semi-industrial requirements). Non-anthropomorphic generic AI models. Impact of war on prices of all kinds of stuff everywhere will become more evident.
Score explanation
The comment makes 3 predictions regarding consumer hardware trends, AI model development, and economic impacts of war. As of 2025, the shift toward ‘prosumer’ industrial-grade hardware and the global inflationary impact of conflicts are largely correct, while non-anthropomorphic AI remains a niche or emerging direction.
65
Hawk Tuah girl is charged for crypto rug pull scam Investment continues in AI, but the tech industry continues to mature. Stable growth and profits, but the lack of rapid expansion is going to feel like decline. It continues to be a stiff job market. Ukraine fighting still continues, but funding/arms sources for Ukraine shift to be more European. Trump tax cuts expire. The margins in congress are a lot tighter this time for the Republican party in the house. TSLA sales continue decline, stock continues to soar. (only kind of joking on this one) TSLA robotaxi thing does not ship/work.
Score explanation
The comment contains 7 distinct predictions regarding geopolitics, economics, and tech. As of early 2025, 4 are correct (stiff job market, European funding shift, tight House margins, and Robotaxi delays), while others like the tax cut expiration are pending or incorrect. The score reflects a moderate volume of predictions with a mixed accuracy rate.
65
- Photovoltaic electricity generation will continue to follow the same exponential curve it has been in for the last ~70 years. This will catch everybody completely by surprise. - The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel grid storage into getting a lot of investment. Its capacity will still be mostly a rounding error in 2025. - The overwhelming amount of excess solar generation during the day will propel discussions about carbon capture and credits. Those won’t go anywhere in 2025. - Meanwhile, the climate won’t become much worse in 2025 compared to 2024. What is still pretty bad, but there will certainly be useless heated discussions about it. - LLMs will reach peak disillusionment. It’s not clear if large LLM providers will even keep providing them. But at the same time there will appear a few people here and there using them for stuff they are good at. Those people won’t get much attention. - Linux won’t reach 2% of the PCs. But it will get close. - The US won’t jump into a recession as soon as Trump becomes the president. Not much will change in 2025 alone. - The EU economy will be a bit better than 2024. - The China economy will be a bit worse than 2024. But there will be no way to verify this. - Here in South America most countries will be a bit better than 2024. But Brazil will be worse. Let’s see... what other subjects I can ask my crystal ball about?
Score explanation
The author makes 10 distinct predictions regarding solar energy, LLMs, Linux market share, and global economies for the year 2025. As of current 2025 data, 6 are largely correct (e.g., solar trends, grid storage status, and economic stagnation), while others like LLM providers ceasing service or specific GDP shifts remain unverified or unlikely. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with moderate accuracy.
65
Nothing Much. Which is surprisingly the same as 2024. Apart from a possible recession. In some way I feel things have stagnated. Apart from rapid progress on AI. We will continue to see development and progress on hardware. N2 finally from TSMC but not on Apple SoC yet. Blackwell GPU, continue price improvement in GPU competition due to Intel ARC. Etc Most of these are obvious and continue from current trend. I used to post these trend and roadmap on HN. Now they no longer seems important or matter. iOS and Android have somewhat converged into very similar for the past 3-4 years, that I wasn’t expected. May be Trump winning election along with the pendulum swing back in such massive way wasn’t expected as well. May be this is a sign of depression but In some sense I feel everything is very boring. My most unpresent feeling is that A lot of things outside tech have declined in quality. And we are not improving on it. . . . . Edit: May be I will use this space to rant about things. Video Codec - No x266. No VVC Encoder. No Progress on AV2. Stagnated H.267 research. The most popular codec is still AVC finalised in 2003, and AVC High Profile in 2005. So we are 20 years already and still using it. AAC-LC is finally patent free. But the world no longer cares about Audio Codec. AAC-LC was the first version of AAC that came just after MP3 and we are on 27 years already. JPEG-XL Not getting anywhere. Despite clearly being the better option for BBP 1.0+. JPEG is still most widely use, and JPEG was finalised in 1992 so we are 32 years in already. Apple milking on hardware. iOS isn’t getting any better. Although latest version of macOS finally have some useful addition. Internet getting smaller. We can no longer search for things we once saw with Google. Google hasn’t been great at most things since their IPO. But it does seems that people are getting excited with their latest AI development. Amazon milking its AWS. No significant competition from HyperScaler. And no middle ground with Dedicated Sever and Cloud Offering. Minimal Hardware progress on NAND and HDD. Especially in terms of Cost / GB. HAMR is late by at least 5 - 7 years depending on how you count it. Retail are now going to Tech without understand anything about it. From QR Code Menu to ordering system inside restaurant with minimal Mobile Network reception. Adding WiFi but with old equipment, capacity constrain before loading anything is very very bad UX. MNOs moving much slower into 5G telecom equipment upgrading. Basically milking 5G and 4G customer for as long as possible. Instead of trying to make its services better. USB-C is still a pile of mess. No Consumer NAS backup function with S3 Glacier Deep Archive. Streaming is a pile of mess. Netflix gone down hill. Selection of Movies have completely disappeared. I have no idea how Youtube Music is still...... oh well after all it is google I guess I shouldn’t expect anything. Everything is subscription. No BluRay successor in the pipeline. Software continue to be bloated. Mobile Gaming is just a repeat of the same thing. Literally the same engine with different IPs. And loot box gambling. I have finally deleted all games on my iPhone. Even Desktop Gaming aren’t better. There are finally enough people complaining about Unreal Engine, while simplify game development ultimately make most games looked the same. Along with low frame rate. One could argue this is development studio problem and nothing to do with Unreal, I think there are finally some voices concern about how EPIC encourages it. Modern AAA Games are also so concerned about Graphics and other crap but completely forgotten about Game Play and Storyline. On Gaming. I am waiting for Switch 2. But then it is not only delayed. But in terms of hardware released and used in Nintendo Console, Switch 2 will likely be the worst of all in its history using tech that will be 5-7 years old by the time it releases. I know it is not all about hardware but it could have been a generation better and we wouldn’t repeat what happen with Zelda lag in some scenes. Outside Tech, Shrinkflation is happening everything in the food and drinks industry. They are finally reaching another 10 - 15 years cycle where they are looking to cut corners. Both in ingredients and size. Food quality across the board is decreasing. Mostly because of inflation. Cheap Chinese Electric cars are everywhere. May be people like them. But they are of very low quality. A little sad German didn’t react. But again this is to be expected. And why everything is boring. Wireless Earphone industry is happy with their margin. May be I am the only person who want battery swap on these thing instead of thinking them as disposable gadget every 2 years. I was hoping someone outside Apple would do it since I first bought AirPod Gen 1. But no. nearly 10 years later we are still throwing them away. Housing is still expensive. We still dont have ways to built high rise high quality neatly furnished building with substantially less time. So much about Apple Pay replacing the wallet and we just passed 10 years anniversary. NFC hasn’t improved. I guess after typing a lot of these out I realised and can summarised it as, everyone is busy milking their product and services they all forgot about the content. That is what annoys me the most. Things aren’t getting better.
Score explanation
The author makes 3 distinct predictions: TSMC N2 not being on Apple SoC yet (correct), Switch 2 being delayed/using old tech (correct), and continued hardware development (correct). The score reflects a high accuracy rate for 2025, though the predictions are relatively safe extensions of current trends.
55
Many predictions here are about social media. My prediction is that the first amendment rights they’ve won themselves are going to bite them in 2025. The first ruling has already happened: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/national-international/t... What this ruling means is that the algorithm is a expression of the first amendment from the platform itself. If the algorithm does harmful things it causes first party liability. My prediction is that the administration will not do much to the social media giants but class action lawsuits will.
Score explanation
The author makes 2 predictions: that First Amendment rulings will create liability for platforms in 2025 and that class action lawsuits will be the primary driver of change rather than the administration. Given the 2024/2025 legal landscape regarding Section 230 and algorithmic liability, 1 prediction is partially correct as litigation has surged, though the full impact of the First Amendment ‘biting’ them is still unfolding.
55
1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job. 2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore’s like law is coming/here for code. 3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00’s – very well paid. Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...
Score explanation
The author makes 4 predictions regarding LLM routing, job replacement, code costs, and trade job salaries. As of early 2025, the predictions about LLM routing and dropping costs of code are largely correct, while the shift in trade job status is still in early stages, resulting in 2 correct predictions.
55
Ruby and Rails will continue to grow in notoriety thanks to improvements in YJIT, GC, and Ractor/Fibers and the reemergence of SQLite as a production-grade tool. GenAI tools will "replace" developers in the same way that no/low code tools allowed anyone to make an app. These tools will be tied to specific vendors, meaning you can completely embed with AWS/Google/OpenAI as an LLM app platform, or hire that developer to build the app. Developers who augment their tooling with LLMs will learn faster and become stronger generalists overall. Grow-fast companies will hire less than otherwise, but subject matter experts will keep the lights on and those who can reach across bureaucracies to get things done will remain. Consumer appetite for products using LLMs for traditional workflows will tarnish: chat bots and human-computer interfaces will frustrate but novel applications like improved search and last-mile customization might take hold: "AI powered" will leave marketing lexicon for segments with consumers who want more privacy and who just want to buy new shoes online. We won’t see the return of high-demand positions with high pay and lots of perks. Companies have been incentivized and permitted to run lean and increase performance demands from remaining staff. Teams have been understaffed for months, but growth remains steady.
Score explanation
The comment makes 6 distinct predictions regarding Ruby’s growth, GenAI’s impact on hiring, consumer sentiment, and the job market. As it is currently 2025, the predictions about lean staffing and AI marketing fatigue are partially verifiable, resulting in 3 correct assessments so far. The score reflects a moderate volume of predictions with mixed or pending accuracy.
55
Back in 2019 I gave a conference talk in which I made four predictions about Web development in 2020 and 2025: https://youtu.be/okrB3aJtUaw I feel confident at least two of the predictions (about TypeScript and npm) are going to be true at the end of 2025. I feel less confident about the predictions about WebAssembly and compile-to-JS languages.
Score explanation
The author references four specific predictions made for 2025, noting that two (TypeScript and npm) are likely correct while two others (WebAssembly and compile-to-JS) are less certain. Because only 2 out of 4 predictions are currently viewed as successful by the author, the score reflects moderate accuracy.
55
1. ChatBot technology will be instrumental to the rise of oligarchical societies and fascism. Mass propaganda, media corporations colluding with governments, governments operating within companies, etc. 2. Wealth inequality will increase at an exponentially faster rate. 3. Global warming will trend towards warmer than ever before 4. Political violence will escalate especially toward vulnerable populations. 5. Increase in minor and major ecological disasters. 6. Geopolitical issues will create more tensions leading to an amplification of what will be known as WWIII. 7. A key biomedical advancement will come from China. 8. We will look back on this year as the year that started inhumane physical/psychological experiments similar to Tuskegee using technology and vulnerable populations. The devastation of which will eventually be looked at as the creators of the atomic bomb. 9. Grass roots companies with physical and social/community based products and services will start to thrive. 10. A bubble in the AI investment world will pop for the bag-holders, but the heavy weights will remain strong and increase in momentum. A slight return to 2022 expectations for digital goods will reprise (see 2026 predictions for this) 11. The first court case involving AI generated video will begin.
Score explanation
The comment contains 11 distinct predictions; while broad trends like wealth inequality, global warming, and ecological disasters (5 correct) align with current 2025 data, many others regarding WWIII and specific biomedical experiments remain speculative or unverified. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with a moderate rate of verifiable accuracy at this time.
55
- We will feel more useless and sad than 2024, with AI and other technological advances showing us we will soon be out of work, with of course, China and other countries doing everything better than us. - There’s a 50% likelihood that if you are an American, you will eat at a restaurant where the food is made by machines. - More inflation coming. FED is right. And even more inflation once more protectionist laws and acts are passed. - US’s economy will start showing signs of a recession. - Google’s search business will start to dwindle. But it has it’s own TPUs, worth trillions in NVidia money. Waymo. Android. Youtube, Deepmind. It’s a company hard to put a price tag on. - Tesla is going to $1K without any fundamentals. I will feel like throwing away my Benjamin Graham books again. - US dollar will start to devalue as the protectionist policies will start showing its side-effects. - The EU will hit American Big Tech companies hard, as the US is no longer a friendly partner. Beginning of the end for the US techno-feudalism over there. - China is in deflation, but even stronger. People will see again that economics doesn’t apply that well in autocracies. It will keep eating the EU’s auto industry in countries that have no auto industry (most of them!), as they have no reason to make China a foe or follow the US, which have isolated itself. - Ukraine and Russia will strike a deal, but the war won’t end. - US making its own chips will continue being a big topic. More drama to unfold about Intel. - Intel will start showing progress. The Battlemage GPU is a huge success. - NVidia will see its revenue shrink in comparison to this year. - GenAI will become less relevant, with other AI applications having a bigger focus. - OpenAI’s market valuation will start going down. Don’t get me wrong, ChatGPT is the biggest invention of our decade, but the market is saturated with Anthropic and other competitors doing the same for less. And OpenAI became an one-trick poney. - Robotics will have its run. Tesla will show its lead.
Score explanation
The comment contains 16 distinct predictions ranging from economic shifts to specific tech successes like Intel’s Battlemage. While some predictions regarding Google’s resilience and Intel’s progress align with current 2025 trends, others like Tesla reaching $1K or Nvidia’s revenue shrinking are currently inaccurate or unproven, resulting in 7 correct assessments.
50
There will be 1TW of deployed solar. New nuclear will continue to be vaporware.
Score explanation
The comment contains 2 predictions: solar deployment reaching 1TW and nuclear remaining ‘vaporware’. The solar prediction is correct as global capacity surpassed 1TW in 2022, but the nuclear claim is subjective and arguably incorrect given recent SMR progress and plant restarts.
45
* Solar energy will account for around 8% (give or take 1%?) of the worlds energy usage * We’ll see the worlds first trillionaire * Bitcoin will reach $200k+, and remain largely stable around that price, at the end of 2025 * Generative AI for music will continue to improve substantially. I have a lack of imagination, but maybe something like on demand streaming services, maybe targeted to niche music genres (lo-fi, electronica, elevator/hold/office music) * Generative AI for video will continue to improve substantially. The best I can come up with is that there will be a breakout indie film or music video that’s produced from a skeleton crew relying heavily on generative AI video. * LLMs will continue to improve substantially, being able to solve more and more complex tasks, like the Putnam exam and others. Research will continue to try and integrate LLMs into a toolchain to improve performance * LLMs and other generative AI tasks will continue to become more and more accessible ($2.5k for a machine able to do fairly advanced training?) * The cost of robots and other robotics will drop substantially, providing a reasonable bipedal option at $8k * Twitter and Facebook will still be around, Bluesky will be no more, Mastodon will continue to be niche * All the above will be used by people to invent and discover weird, wonderful and horrible things that I can’t even imagine.
Score explanation
The comment contains 11 distinct predictions about energy, finance, and AI. As of early 2025, 4 predictions are largely correct (solar share, AI improvement, and social media status), but several others like the $200k Bitcoin price and $8k bipedal robots remain unproven or incorrect. The score reflects a high volume of predictions with a mixed accuracy rate.
45
* One or a few of the faangmanga-ish leaders will retire (or forced to by the board) and the new leader will be from within (likely Tim Cook for age reasons but could equally likely be Sundar Pichai for non-age reasons) * LLMs (for non-coding tasks) will likely fizzle out as expensive talking fidget spinners and not the world saviors that the companies behind them envision them to be. AI will go back to being fun and exciting again and not the delight of both Wall Street and the ‘shoeshine boy’. * Cloud egress costs will be heavily scrutinized and competed upon as transferring data no longer becomes a competitive advantage. * Apple or someone like Apple will take advantage of cratering storage/compute costs by moving things off cloud to a locally owned ‘box’ that pairs with a new dumb-client/thin phone (backups, massive storage, running some compute on this box, sharing/storing ‘family’ stuff, streaming games or movies etc) also accessible via a reverse proxy (vpn) from anywhere. * A combo of aibo/roomba/ring like device that goes about or rolls around your house and does things for you… kinda real life flubber. * Selling users’ data goes out of fashion (goog/meta) as new companies use privacy as a competitive advantage to sell ads. * Finally games actually have AI that doesn’t suck - a new class of AI games that would challenge and delight humans like never before.
Score explanation
The comment contains 7 distinct predictions about the future of tech leadership, AI, and hardware. Since the comment is written in 2025 and projects into the future, none of the predictions can be verified as correct yet, resulting in 0 correct. The score reflects a high quantity of specific, non-trivial predictions despite the lack of current hindsight.
45
90% confidence level, Hottest weather in recorded history. Extreme weather in many places not seen before. No one is prepared for this commonplace outlier, Globally common, locally outlier. Huge insurance payout but most not fullfilled. 90% CL: Top search engine results completely inundated by LLM text, we none the wiser. SEO solved. Search engine switches to new algorithm based on LLM. 90% CL: AI with tool use that has access to physics simulator and CAD software will automatically advances efficent engine design. 70% CL: Million dollar prompt run on million dollar math prize. Millennium Prize Problems 40% CL: AI sucessfully held back invasive species encrochment with lessons from AI war machines 30% CL: Cheap AI nose sniffs out many common diseases. Automatic data analysis of Gas Chromatography and spectroscopy readings on patients’ VOC(volatile organic compounds) produces fast and cheap diagnosis. 10% CL: Not next year, Cost of renewable electricity in remote area becomes cheap enough to pull oxygen from air or electrosis from water to be sold as commodity. Or other processes to package solar energy for trade.
Score explanation
The author makes 7 distinct predictions with varying confidence levels. As of 2025, the predictions regarding record-breaking heat and LLM-inundated search results are largely correct, but others regarding Millennium Prize solutions and invasive species remain unverified or unfulfilled, resulting in 2 correct out of 7.
45
Auto makers will decide that putting 6 headlights on pickup trucks is no longer competitive. Consequently, they will innovate that the world needs pickup trucks with 8 headlights, starting in 2025. FML.
Score explanation
The author makes 2 predictions: that 6-headlight designs will be phased out and that 8-headlight models will debut in 2025. While the trend toward more complex lighting arrays is accurate for 2025 models, the specific count of 8 headlights is hyperbolic, resulting in 1 correct general trend.
45
Industrial civilization will continue to follow along the "Business as Usual" trajectory of the 1972 Limits to Growth publication [0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth#Compariso...
Score explanation
The comment makes 1 prediction that industrial civilization will continue to follow the ‘Business as Usual’ trajectory. As of 2025, empirical data largely aligns with this specific historical model, resulting in 1 correct prediction, though the score is moderate due to the low quantity of distinct claims.
45
1. There will be a renaming of "social media" as people note that there is nothing social about being served endless ads, ragebait and distracting videos with no actual social interaction happening. 2. The "social media" giants will invest more in public affairs to improve their image as public resistance grows. Expect lots of research papers getting funded that sow doubt and fear about banning children from social media, following similar strategies to tobacco and oil industries. 3. Miraculously, Truth Social and X will be exempt from the same controls put on other platforms. Justified on the basis that they are official communication channels for the government.
Score explanation
The comment makes 3 distinct predictions regarding the rebranding of social media, industry lobbying tactics, and regulatory exemptions for specific platforms. As it is currently 2025 and these events have not yet materialized or been confirmed as industry-wide shifts, the number of correct predictions is 0.
45
- (90%) US accelerated inflation - (75%) US marked increase in military-industrial complex spending, perhaps $800B/y - (70%) US hollows-out functional regulators necessary for safety, growth, and industry - (65%) US recession spring-summer 2025 - (50%) US major cyberattack crippling infrastructure - (45%) US austerity cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security
Score explanation
The comment contains 6 distinct predictions about US economic and political trends. As of early 2025, the prediction regarding military spending is already accurate (surpassing $800B) and inflation remains a concern, but the others (recession, major cyberattack, and specific austerity cuts) remain unproven or pending, resulting in 2 correct predictions.
45
I will start off with an uncommon one: Gambling addiction in kids is through the roof, sports betting, crypto betting, csgo skin betting. These are being openly advertised and we will start seeing the first major push towards stopping some of them. Some of the owners of the most uncommon Counterstrike skin gambling sites are making about $50 million a month.
Score explanation
The author makes 1 prediction regarding an upcoming major push to regulate youth gambling, which aligns with current 2025 legislative trends and enforcement actions. Because there is only 1 prediction, the score is moderate despite it being correct.
45
Google will announce new products (will call them initiatives) and will not launch them to the general public. ChatGPT Search will get significant (high 1 digit) share of the search market.
Score explanation
The comment contains 2 predictions: one regarding Google’s product strategy and one regarding ChatGPT Search market share. As of early 2025, the Google prediction aligns with historical patterns, while ChatGPT Search’s market share remains below the predicted high single digits, resulting in 1 correct prediction.
45
La Niña have high odds to last very few months. Global climate will continue its accelerated destabilization trend, with not so low odds of something impacting badly some first world countries. But just breaking even more records will do enough damage. And that will put extra pressure on an already unstable global politics scenario. What will follow may tell us in which flavor of dystopia we are in, either denialism and escapism keeping business as usual, or "emergency measures" with some sectors grabbing even more power.
Score explanation
The comment contains 4 predictions regarding La Niña duration, climate destabilization, political pressure, and future societal responses. Only the prediction regarding continued record-breaking climate trends is currently verifiable as correct, while the others remain speculative or vague. This results in a moderate score reflecting a mix of general accuracy and unfalsifiable outcomes.
45
One of the unusual trends of the past several years is that higher education has become less and less respected and people now look to private industry for the R&D that universities were designed to perform for the public good. I think 2025 Will mark a bottom for that in one way or another- either private industry (the FANGs) suffers a setback or (more likely in my view) research universities start a comeback as a new set of startups begin to launch out of a department (not necessarily CS or hardware). Perhaps in another field like gene therapy.
Score explanation
The author makes 2 predictions regarding 2025 being a ‘bottom’ for university prestige and the rise of new startups from non-CS departments. Since it is currently 2025, these predictions are currently unfolding and cannot