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Welcome to the 2026 State of the World conversation, our 26th annual​
exploration of the chaos and complexity of the rapidly-spinning,​
always-evolving planet Earth and the odd bipedal and quadrupedal​
creatures variously crouching and wandering on its surface. We are​
observers of this world, sharing our observations here with no claim​
of extraordinary expertise. We do hope that you'll be stimulated by​
our observations, or that you will, at least, find them​
entertaining. And we invite you to contribute either by posting​
directly on the WELL, if you're a member of this online community,​
or via email to inkwell (at) well.com, if you're not a member.

It's a chaotic time, but we'll try not to be chaotic.

Your co-hosts and lead commentators are author/journalist/design​
maven Bruce Sterling and yours truly, Jon Lebkowsky, digital culture​
maven and aging dharma punk. This is our 26th annual State of the​
World discussion. We tend to be more micro than macro in these​
discussions, which makes sense given that the actual state of the​
world is slippery, fluid, hard to assess reliably.

We've been doing this State of the World routine for so long that I​
think we might as well just make "the claim of extraordinary​
expertise."  What are we trying to hide at this point?  If you're​
here again, then you know.

Commonly, in these State of World discussions, I like to offer some​
provocative and far-out stuff, because the state of the world is​
commonly boring and normal.  I probably won't be doing much that for​
02026 because the general tenor of discussion worldwide is so​
chaotic and near-dementia.   It's not that world events themselves​
are all that violent or nasty historically-speaking, but that a lot​
of what is said about events is not even human in origin. It's​
algorithmically distributed  instead of reflecting any human​
benefits and interests.

Contemporary political, financial, even military language has a lot​
of language-model rhythms in it.  It generates tangled chains of​
catchwords without the consequences of their meaning anything.

It's not that every human being has magically turned into an AI,​
more like AI-slop is setting the pace for human discussion.  You get​
this algorithmically-assisted churn fodder that's extreme and​
anodyne at the same time, sometimes fantastically erudite but also​
treadmill-like, forgotten by Tuesday, a new kind of dessicated​
bullshit that can't even bother to lie.

I don't want to "debunk" stuff or "fact-check" stuff, because I​
think that activity's part of the general problem, but this year I'm​
feeling a new and different sensibility.  Obviously the trend-lines​
are horrific in many ways, and there are battlefields and explosive​
gray-zones that are frankly grisly, and yet for me personally the​
year 2025 was one of the calmest and quietest years I've ever​
experienced.   Next-to-nothing  is going as I would prefer it, and I​
probably ought to be coming out of my skin with anxiety, but I was​
also in a state of near-serenity, quite a lot of the time.  It felt​
like being the Cheshire Cat in a world ruthlessly pseudo-dominated​
by a screechy and senile Red Queen.

Once again I'm logging in from Ibiza.  I wouldn't say I've gone​
native, but I've been here long enough to get it.  This is not a​
fierce, grind-it-out, Silicon Valley society; even Austin Texas,​
that wellspring of slackerdom, has a harsher work-ethic.   This​
little Mediterranean island with some genuine Lotus-eater aspects to​
it -- the island of the Lotus Eaters was supposed to be Djerba over​
in Tunisia.

According to the Odyssey, you sail  there, you partake of the Lotus,​
you go kinda blotto and everything's groovy.  You're not supposed to​
succumb to  this sweet and easy life, of course.  Captain Odysseus​
makes everybody get back on the boat and recommence rowing for​
Ithaca.   A few hundred Greek verses later, every blue-collar guy is​
dead and only Captain Odysseus is left to manage his narrative.

Maybe Lotus-land deserves some general re-assessment.  I admit that​
I'm laid-back, indolent and not doing much here in Ibiza, but I'm​
getting more accomplished  than anybody in the US Congress.  Those​
guys are Lotus-land 10X.  They've got great health-coverage and​
limos and such, but if you consider yourself an ambitious,​
fully-briefed, take charge kind of guy and you're also in the US​
Congress, you're a decorative lotus-plant in 02026.

You could mount a podium and declare your sentiments  about the​
State of the World, and nobody anywhere would grant you even  a​
shred of credibility.  Your own kids would scoff and return to their​
TikTok feed.

While Bruce is hanging out in Ibiza, I'm still in Austin, pondering​
the Texas weather, which is famously fickle but increasingly hotter.​


But it's not just Texas that's getting hotter. The state of the​
world in 2026 is feverish: global temperatures continue to rise;​
2025 was among the hottest years on record. The world is close to​
excceding the 1.5 °C threshold set by the Paris Agreement within​
the next decade if not sooner. Greenhouse gas concentrations and​
ocean heat content are at or near historic highs, driving stronger​
extreme weather, sea-level rise, melting ice, and stressed​
ecosystems. Currently the Trump administration in the USA dismisses​
renewable energy sources, instead boosting fossil fuels, and​
weakening or eliminating emission controls. Climate science warns​
that, without deeper sustained cuts to emissions and broader​
implementation of mitigation strategies, targets of the Paris​
framework are slipping out of reach. It's like the house is burning​
down around us as we sit on the couch watching episodes of "Stranger​
Things" and munching popcorn, as though everything was status quo.​
Elon Musk, of all people, has a relevant quote: "We are running the​
most dangerous experiment in history right now, which is to see how​
much carbon dioxide the atmosphere can handle before there is an​
environmental catastrophe."

Meanwhile Donald Trump told the United Nations "this 'climate​
change,' it's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in​
my opinion. All of these predictions made by the United Nations and​
many others, often for bad reasons, were wrong. They were made by​
stupid people that have cost their countries fortunes and given​
those same countries no chance for success. If you don't get away​
from this green scam, your country is going to fail."

I thought I was "retiring" into a Lotus-land, but I'm busily doing​
rather a lot of stuff.  For a guy of my advanced years, I'm quite​
curious, inventive and active, only none of it has anything to do​
with wealth or fame. I don't make money from it and I don't demand​
attention for it.

It took me a while to realize that this is a general and traditional​
Ibizan cultural problem: "I'm a drop-out European hippie on a small​
rural island, only somehow-or-other, I want to be very elegant,​
put-together and philosophical Walter-Benjamin about that."  That's​
engrossing, but it's not consequential.  On a bohemian island you're​
quite literally "isolated."  They don't come-and-get-you, which is​
good,  but you're also out-of-sight, out-of-mind, which can get​
rather Robinson-Crusoe.

It's a Ibizan sensibility similar to the Austin "golden rut," or​
what Austinites have consistently referred to as their​
good-old-days.  High quality of life -- eventually, you leave.

When I first visited this island it was much more frenetic than it​
is now.  In an era of deglobalization and hostility to immigrants,​
Ibiza clearly wants to knock it off with its long career as a​
sex-and-drugs disco and become a gerontocratic yachts-and-mansions​
European suburb.  I'm not sure this Monaco-style business model will​
work for them, because rich people, or at least their wives and​
children, get very bored in exclusive gated-community compounds.  ​
Ibizan new-arrivals on their rich-guy yachts are by no means natural​
seafarers.  They get especially bored.  You can see them step off​
the gilded gangplank onto dry land with a look almost of​
desperation, as if they'd emerged from submarines.

"Where's the action?!"  It'll take some nerve to tell them that​
there isn't any, that you're tired of providing it.

I'm not sure what it is I'm personally trying to achieve here in​
these local circumstances, but I have some ideans, and  Stewart​
Brand's new book about "Maintenance" was a cheerful thing to read. ​
I blurbed it.  It strikes me that our State of the World conclave,​
after 26 years of it, is "maintenance."  "Maintaining" old  and​
cherished things is not the same as being conservative about them,​
or being reactionary or backward-looking.   It's more about kicking​
the tires and checking the oil; warming up the motor before the​
year's strange trip.

Also "maintenance" is all about a frank awareness of very genuine,​
pervasive, entropy, failure and decay, which is an honest thing to​
acknowledge and confront when you're over 70.

It couldn't be the WELL State of the World without some tech​
forecasting, but in 02026,  I don't believe anything said by​
Washington or Silicon Valley.   Not an LLM word of it, not a​
generated jpeg.   So this year I plan to get around to discussing​
some *Chinese* tech forecasting.  I don't believe that stuff either,​
but I was impressed by how much the Chinese themselves seemed to​
believe their own forecasting.  So some tall Chinese weeds will be​
in order in the discussion this year.

I am struck by the growing "serfication" of the world. Hundreds of​
thousands (millions?) of displaced Palestinians waiting on their​
Lords to provide relief, or at least a path forward. The vanishing​
American middle class, shrinking further because their healthcare​
(and other government services) are sacrificed for more tax breaks​
for the truly wealthy. The lack of pretence that the poor of​
Venezuela matter as Trump arranges for cronies to tap into​
Venezuelan oil, bypassing the people (already bypassed by​
Maduro)....

Then there is the regularly schedule destruction in Sudan, the​
ongoing war in Ukraine, etc

I'd like to think that the Mamdani's of the world will find their​
voices, and success. I feel uncomfortably skeptical that many people​
are thinking of change, as opposed to slowing the pace of​
Enshittification. And I watch NYC, and the huge, "he's a monster​
anti-Semite" slur distract from anything else.

Not feeling optimistic this morning, even though, for me personally,​
life is relatively peachy.

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