January 18, 2026
Targeted Bets
The tech job market has been tough, leaving many applicants feeling hopeless. I’ve seen this first hand in my conversations with dozens of friends and across more than 100 job interviews. Here is my response to these people: you can drastically increase your odds of getting a job by making targeted bets rather than broadly applying and hoping something sticks.
How do I make a targeted bet?
A targeted bet begins with focus. Instead of applying broadly, identify 5-10 specific opportunities you genuinely want. In the context of job searching, these are roles where at least one of the following is true:
- You are specifically interested in the job for reasons other than the money. It is unlikely that other applicants want the job as badly as you …
January 18, 2026
Targeted Bets
The tech job market has been tough, leaving many applicants feeling hopeless. I’ve seen this first hand in my conversations with dozens of friends and across more than 100 job interviews. Here is my response to these people: you can drastically increase your odds of getting a job by making targeted bets rather than broadly applying and hoping something sticks.
How do I make a targeted bet?
A targeted bet begins with focus. Instead of applying broadly, identify 5-10 specific opportunities you genuinely want. In the context of job searching, these are roles where at least one of the following is true:
- You are specifically interested in the job for reasons other than the money. It is unlikely that other applicants want the job as badly as you do.
- You have a unique connection to the company. This usually comes in the form of either knowing, going to the same school as, or even growing up in the same hometown as a current employee.
Once the list has been narrowed, your goal is to stand out. Here are a few ways to do that:
- Get in contact with current employees at the company. It is important that you send more than one email. I’ve gotten dozens of emails asking for meetings and referrals. The only time I actually respond to these is after the second email.
- Do not ask employees for a referral! Most companies offer referral bonuses, so employees are incentivized to give you one if you can convince them that you will do well in the role.
- If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly. A candidate who is particularly interested in the mission and bold enough to reach out to the CEO is a signal for a strong employee. Again, send more than one email.
Why does this work?
By narrowing your opportunities, you end up being able to spend more time on each one. Let’s assume that a targeted bet increases your chances of getting a job from 1% to 10%. The average number of jobs you’d need to apply to before getting one thus jumps from 100 to just 10! Competitive systems reward effort per attempt, not volume.
Targeted bets beyond job searches
Targeted bets apply to more than just the job search. I recently scored the first apartment I applied to in a highly-competitive San Francisco neighborhood. I was specific in where and what I was looking for, so when the opportunity came up, I was able to devote lots of time and energy into getting it. I applied just 6 hours after the place came on the market. Seeing that there were lots of people at the tour, I sent a follow up email to the leasing agent explaining how I’d always wanted to live in the neighborhood. If I had been worried about the status of my other applications, I may not have had the time to write that follow up email and secure my apartment.
The Real Upside
The glory in making targeted bets is that you get to spend more time on the things that you really care about. I would advise against mass-applying to those entry-level jobs you don’t really care about and instead start getting in contact with people at your dream job.