sweeny Seaman
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Post by sweeny on Jan 15, 2026 9:08:31 GMT
I could make a case that Justinian’s conquests in the Western Mediterranean ultimately did the Roman Empire no good, and destroyed or damaged polities that were better than what replaced them after the Byzantines were driven out. So what would have happened if his attempt to reconquer the Western Empire fell flat on its face at the outset?
If Belisarius had not been available, and been replaced by a bungler, that might have been all that was needed. Admittedly, the Vandals and Ostrogoths had weak rulers, but the outcome was not as absolutely certain as moderns (those few…
sweeny Seaman
Posts: 21 Likes: 25
Post by sweeny on Jan 15, 2026 9:08:31 GMT
I could make a case that Justinian’s conquests in the Western Mediterranean ultimately did the Roman Empire no good, and destroyed or damaged polities that were better than what replaced them after the Byzantines were driven out. So what would have happened if his attempt to reconquer the Western Empire fell flat on its face at the outset?
If Belisarius had not been available, and been replaced by a bungler, that might have been all that was needed. Admittedly, the Vandals and Ostrogoths had weak rulers, but the outcome was not as absolutely certain as moderns (those few who know of these wars) tend to think.
So—eliminate Belisarius, either by disease or murder. His successor in command is a blunderer who makes Ambrose Burnside look like Napoleon Bonaparte. When the Romans land in North Africa, the Vandals all but annihilate them, crushing Justinian’s dreams before they can get started.
Without the devastation of the Gothic Wars, Italy remains fairly prosperous and un-devastated. The Ostrogoths drive off or absorb the Lombards, and an Ostrogothic dynasty in theoretical fealty to Constantinople continues for several centuries. Italy isn’t fragmented and the Papacy, while still very important, does not end up ruling its own independent country.
Meanwhile in the East, the failure of Justinian’s Westward campaigns turns the Empire south and east. Some sort of arrangement is made with the Monophysites, allowing Syria, Palestine and Egypt to remain loyal to the Empire. When the Persians come, the local people do not see them as liberators, but as "pagan" persecutors, and resist fiercely. And if Mohammed arises, he does not find a Byzantium and Persia exhausted by endless stupid wars, and the Muslims remain more-or-less confined to Arabia itself.
stevep Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Jan 15, 2026 11:53:10 GMT
I could make a case that Justinian’s conquests in the Western Mediterranean ultimately did the Roman Empire no good, and destroyed or damaged polities that were better than what replaced them after the Byzantines were driven out. So what would have happened if his attempt to reconquer the Western Empire fell flat on its face at the outset?
If Belisarius had not been available, and been replaced by a bungler, that might have been all that was needed. Admittedly, the Vandals and Ostrogoths had weak rulers, but the outcome was not as absolutely certain as moderns (those few who know of these wars) tend to think.
So—eliminate Belisarius, either by disease or murder. His successor in command is a blunderer who makes Ambrose Burnside look like Napoleon Bonaparte. When the Romans land in North Africa, the Vandals all but annihilate them, crushing Justinian’s dreams before they can get started.
Without the devastation of the Gothic Wars, Italy remains fairly prosperous and un-devastated. The Ostrogoths drive off or absorb the Lombards, and an Ostrogothic dynasty in theoretical fealty to Constantinople continues for several centuries. Italy isn’t fragmented and the Papacy, while still very important, does not end up ruling its own independent country.
Meanwhile in the East, the failure of Justinian’s Westward campaigns turns the Empire south and east. Some sort of arrangement is made with the Monophysites, allowing Syria, Palestine and Egypt to remain loyal to the Empire. When the Persians come, the local people do not see them as liberators, but as "pagan" persecutors, and resist fiercely. And if Mohammed arises, he does not find a Byzantium and Persia exhausted by endless stupid wars, and the Muslims remain more-or-less confined to Arabia itself.
Without Belisarius, unless the empire produces a similarly impressive general could be fatal for much of the eastern empire. He 1st gained fame in the east with a stunning victory against the Persians at Dara. If say something went wrong and he died here - or in some early battles where his performance wasn’t that impressive then there would be greater pressure in the east. Albeit that if this means no serious attempt at regaining Africa or Italy there would be a fair amount of additional men and resources available. Assuming you still have the plague and very bad weather in the 530’s the empires going to have some grim times.
I can’t see some sort of arrangement being made with the Monophysites as Christianity didn’t work that way prior to the aftermath of the reformation and counter-reformation and the rise of modern ideas in the west of civic rights and religious freedom emerged. OTL the Monophysites found the Persian rule better than that of the Orthodox Byzantines when they were occupied in the early 7th century so you might at some point see a resurgent Persian dominate those lands for a prolonged period and contesting Anatolia with a rump eastern Roman empire. This does assume that level of religious tolerance lasts which it might well not but the eastern empire is unlikely to be significantly stronger than OTL.
If you really want to avoid the Muslim conquests and have an eastern empire remain strong then you need to avoid the revolt against Emperor Maurice and all the destruction that caused.
However definitely would be an interesting west/central Med.
a)The Visigoths are weak in Spain and likely to remain so for quite a while until they successfully convert from Arianism to what became Catholic Christianity and then are also socially and linguistically absorbed by the Iberians. This might work in TTL probably depending on what happens with the Franks and/or the Muslims.
b) The Vandals were the prominent sea power and serious raiders so they will cause trouble until their either defeated or change drastically.
c) If the Ostrogoths get their act together they can make a markedly wealthier and more stable Italy and ideally can see off the Lombards. Possibly following on by crushing the Vandals themselves, which would boost trade in the Med as well as getting them access to African grain, which could still have been a significant factor. How much further they might go could be interesting. they could clash with the Franks if they become as dominant, the eastern empire and the Papacy.
d) The Papacy is already seeking overwhelming power I think so there could be issues here. An Ostrogothic ruler might find such claims attractive and tie themselves to the papacy as it gives a basic for extending their rule pretty much anywhere. Although this wouldn’t go down with the older patriarchies in the east of course. Or they could realise they are making a noose for their own neck and reject universal claims by the Papacy, seeking to make it a national church for Italy/the Ostrogothic state, which the popes will resist.
Post by Max Sinister on Jan 17, 2026 23:40:42 GMT
If there was no Belisarius, there’s still his successor Narses who took over after the former was unable to bring the Ostrogoths down.
It seems to depend on Justinian’s decision: Go East to defeat or at least weaken the Persians forever - or not. But since he called himself "Roman emperor", what he wanted was ROME.
As long as he wants that, it also wouldn’t help to suggest him to defeat just the Vandals. Belisarius defeated them pretty quickly, that wouldn’t be the problem. (Would that work out, or make the Empire too hard to defend, with the long coastline? And the grain from Africa and the islands would strengthen the Empire.)
stevep, yeah, why did the Byzantine people like Phocas so much?