By Kirsty Johnston of RNZ

As floodwaters recede and damage assessments continue after last week’s deadly storms, scrutiny is turning to whether New Zealand is prepared for the next disaster - and how it will pay for it.

One long-term economic analysis shows New Zealand has developed a pattern of spending heavily after disasters strike, while investing comparatively little upfront to reduce future risk.

"Our key problem is that we tend to respond to every disaster in an ad hoc way," said adaptation expert Professor Bronwyn Hayward, from Canterbury University. "And we’re treating every disaster individually."

Treasury flagged the same issue in 2024, warning there is an 80% chance New Zealand will experience another Cyclone Gabrielle-scale event within the next 50 years, and describing extreme weather as a repeat and growing fiscal risk for the Crown, rather than a one-off shock.

Despite those warnings, funding and planning for climate adaptation has been scaled back by the current government - even as recovery bills have climbed well over $1 billion following 2023’s Cyclone Gabrielle, the Auckland Anniversary floods and last year’s Tasman floods.

Experts say the bill will only continue to rise as climate change worsens, unless the nation makes urgent changes to how it funds climate adaptation.

"You end up paying six times more for emergency repair than you would if you’d actually planned ahead and planned the upgrades or planned a city," says Emily Mabin Sutton, chief executive of the Climate Club, a group that organises climate action. "Basically - we can brush our teeth each day or get a painful root canal…and at the moment we’re going to the dentist screaming."

The government has argued resilience investment continues, but through mainstream infrastructure and regional funding rather than ring-fenced funds.

Deadly storms and mounting recovery costs

Heavy rain triggered widespread flooding, evacuations and landslides across parts of the North Island last week, including Bay of Plenty, Northland, the Coromandel and Tai Rāwhiti.

In Mount Maunganui, six people were killed when a landslide struck a campground after intense rainfall destabilised steep hillsides. Two more died in a slip in nearby Papamoa, and another in Northland when his car was swept down a river.

Cabinet approved $2.2 million in immediate recovery funding, including for the marae which opened its doors to evacuees. Further support is expected as damage estimates are finalised. Gisborne District Mayor Rehette Stoltz estimated the damage caused to her region alone during last week’s storms will cost $21.5m to fix.

The money has already been criticised as "not enough" by opposition parties, who say there needs to be more funding for resilience, not just recovery.

"Aotearoa New Zealand needs to get out of the pattern of crisis and response. We know that climate change charged weather events are going to become more frequent and more extreme, and we need to plan accordingly," said Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick.

Since its election in 2023, the government has removed or reduced most forms of dedicated climate adaptation and resilience funding.

In Budget 2024, Finance Minister Nicola Willis ended the ring-fencing of Emissions Trading Scheme revenue for the Climate Emergency Response Fund. The government also dismantled a $6 billion national resilience fund created after Cyclone Gabrielle, arguing resilience spending should instead be assessed through standard Budget processes.

At the same time, scientific capacity has been reduced. NIWA has confirmed job cuts affecting climate modelling, physical oceanography and marine science roles, while the government discontinued Te Ara Paerangi - Future Pathways, a programme intended to strengthen the science system supporting long-term climate risk assessment.

Planned adaptation actions quietly discontinued

The policy framework intended to guide climate adaptation has also been scaled back.

When the Ministry for the Environment released the first National Adaptation Plan in 2022, it was intended to translate climate risk assessments into practical decisions about where and how the country builds, protects infrastructure, and supports communities facing growing hazards.

At the centre of the plan were tools designed to help governments and councils move beyond ad hoc responses to extreme weather. These included guidance for central government policymakers on incorporating climate risk into decision-making, updated methodologies for local climate risk assessments, and a framework for councils to identify when areas should be protected, redesigned or retreated from as risks escalate over time.

An official addendum table published in January 2025 shows much of that work has since been stopped, leaving decisions about rebuilding and upgrading exposed assets largely to existing regulatory and funding settings.

Economic and social adaptation measures were also discontinued, including work on income insurance and welfare reforms intended to support communities facing climate shocks, as well as targeted support for Māori small-business resilience and sector-specific adaptation initiatives in areas such as tourism.

Swarbrick said the fact funding for Māori resilience had been cut was "gutting".

"That would have enabled more investment in building that resilience, as opposed to what [the government] are doing right now, which is patting iwi Māori on the back and simply reimbursing them."

While national direction on natural hazards remains in place through planning instruments, the National Adaptation Plan was intended to provide the tools, standards and coordination needed to act on that direction.

Mabin Sutton said the cuts had real-world impacts for communities wanting to make decisions about their futures.

"Over 65 percent of New Zealand’s population in major infrastructure sits within five kilometres of the coast. And we haven’t got a map yet of where is the most risky place to live or the safer places to live."

The new plan

The government says it has not abandoned climate adaptation. In October 2025, the Ministry for the Environment announced a National Adaptation Framework, setting out 16 initial actions focused on improving coordination across agencies, clarifying roles and responsibilities, and establishing principles for adaptation planning.

It will also develop new national hazard datasets, and a requirement for councils to develop adaptation plans for priority areas.

But that framework does not include a dedicated funding mechanism, and it does not reinstate many of the delivery tools discontinued from the first National Adaptation Plan.

One of its central initiatives - a national flood-mapping programme - is not expected to produce its first public outputs until 2027, while decisions on cost-sharing have been deferred until the next parliamentary term. The Climate Change Commission has warned that the lack of clarity about who pays for adaptation remains a major barrier to progress.

The weighting towards crisis response was last year captured in economic analysis commissioned by insurance company IAG, which examined central government spending on natural hazards over time.

The report found spending had increased but is dominated by post-event recovery, highlighting that recovery spending following events such as Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary floods ran into the billions of dollars, while investment aimed at reducing future exposure remains comparatively small and episodic.

Sapere Research Group, which completed the report, found severe weather events requiring large-scale Crown intervention are occurring more frequently. It also noted that central government increasingly acts as the funder of last resort, particularly where homes, infrastructure and communities remain exposed to known flood and landslip risks.

The insurance sector is also beginning to reflect those risks from climate more explicitly. This week, AA Insurance confirmed it had temporarily stopped offering new home and landlord policies in parts of Westport on the West Coast of the South Island because of flood risk, citing elevated exposure.

‘Significant fiscal cost’ must be shared, govt says

When questioned about the funding cuts this week, the government said resilience investment continues, but through mainstream infrastructure and regional funding.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said climate and resilience spending should be assessed through standard Budget processes rather than ring-fenced funds. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has cited flood protection works, stopbanks and transport upgrades as evidence resilience investment is ongoing, arguing such projects should compete alongside other infrastructure priorities.

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts told RNZ that adaptation involves "a significant fiscal cost" that will need to be shared across society over time.

"The work we are doing with the National Adaptation Framework will give us an enduring system that prepares New Zealand for the impacts of climate change, while keeping costs to our society as low as possible," Watts said in a statement to RNZ.

"Our approach is about making sure people have the right information to make the right decisions. This will allow people and businesses to plan ahead and make decisions that lower risk and boost resilience."

Watts said the government’s framework included shifting spending towards reducing risk before climate-related events like floods or storms happen.

He pointed to funding available through the $1.2 billion regional infrastructure fund, including $200 million ring-fenced for flood protection, but has said councils will need to develop adaptation plans and then work with central government and other stakeholders on how costs are met.

Meanwhile, the latest climate projections indicate New Zealand is already around 1.1°C warmer than in the early 1900s, and could be up to 3°C hotter by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions are not rapidly reduced.

Scientists say that warming will increase the frequency and severity of floods, landslides, storms, heatwaves and droughts, while also placing growing strain on emergency response systems, public health, insurance availability and government budgets.

Hayward said the stakes were clear.

"Children that have been born in 2020 and since will face over four times the number of extreme events in their lifetimes than any of us who were 55 in 2020 will ever experience in our remaining lives."