National Housing Market OutlookBuild-to-RentHomebuildingSingle-Family Rental
November 12, 2025
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Key takeaways
- **Most metros are adding jobs more slowly than normal. **Charlotte leads in job growth among major metros, while Austin and Denver fall far short of their historically strong pace.
- **High-income sectors are contracting, **while Education and Healthcare are expanding faster than normal across most metros.
- **Employment composition matters as much…
National Housing Market OutlookBuild-to-RentHomebuildingSingle-Family Rental
November 12, 2025
- Share Post
Key takeaways
- **Most metros are adding jobs more slowly than normal. **Charlotte leads in job growth among major metros, while Austin and Denver fall far short of their historically strong pace.
- **High-income sectors are contracting, **while Education and Healthcare are expanding faster than normal across most metros.
- **Employment composition matters as much as total growth for local housing market strength. **Metros reliant on lower-wage job growth are likely to face softer for-sale demand.
National job growth is slowing, but metro trends vary
The national labor market is softening, with implications for local housing markets. Most major metros are adding jobs more slowly than normal. We analyzed employment performance by metro and industry, comparing today’s growth to long-term trends since 2010. Red represents job losses, yellow shows slower-than-normal growth, and green represents faster-than-normal growth.
High-income job losses will reshape housing demand
The job market drives housing demand, but the type of jobs created or lost impacts the type of housing. High-income sectors—Information, Professional Services, and Financial Activities—are shrinking across most major metros. Workers in these industries drive for-sale housing demand more than rental demand. Nationally, high-income sector employment remained flat YOY in August, well below its long-term compound annual growth of +1.6%.
The Education and Healthcare sectors account for the bulk of new jobs added in most metros and are growing faster than normal in almost every market. Many of these jobs pay lower wages on average and often generate rental demand more than homebuying activity. Nationally, education and healthcare employment rose +3.3% YOY in August, well above its long-term compound annual growth of +2.1%
What’s happening in key metros
- Philadelphia (+1.8% YOY) and New York (+1.7% YOY) show stronger job growth than their historical trends (+1.1% and +1.6%, respectively). However, this improvement reflects recovery from weak post-Great Financial Crisis baselines rather than genuine outperformance.
- **Charlotte **(+2.6% YOY) is a standout performer, maintaining robust job growth supported by Professional Services expansion (+4.5% YOY)—a rare bright spot for for-sale demand.
- Austin (+0.8% YOY) and **Denver **(+0.0% YOY) are growing much more slowly than their historically strong employment trends (+3.8% and +2.3%, respectively). Tech and Professional Services jobs are declining in both markets, and even healthcare—which is expanding faster than normal in most metros—shows weak growth here. This reduction in high-paying jobs is weakening demand for both home purchases and rentals.
- The Bay Area continues to lose jobs across high-income sectors (-0.4% YOY), driving modest overall employment declines. These job losses have slowed compared to a year ago but remain negative YOY. Despite generating substantial spending and wealth, the AI-driven tech boom hasn’t added meaningful employment to the region.
What this means for your business
Whether you build, invest, or advise in housing markets, these employment shifts will impact your growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond:
- **Homebuilders: **Expect fewer qualified buyers. Position products at attainable price points and reconsider location strategies.
- Rental operators: Prepare for sustained demand from renters employed in healthcare and education.
- **Residential building products: **Anticipate margin pressure as affordability challenges push builders toward smaller, cost-efficient designs.
How to stay ahead
OurMetro and Regional Housing research package includes analysis of the latest demand, supply, and affordability fundamentals for each metro and region as well as results from our proprietary surveys. Our consulting team continually evaluates market feasibility, absorption/pricing/product recommendations, and overall investment/expansion strategy in markets nationwide. Combining these two areas of expertise yields qualitative and quantitative insight for more intelligent decision-making.
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About The Author
John Macke
Research Manager, For Sale
John leads JBREC’s Southern California market coverage for the Metro Analysis and Forecast reports, produces the Regional Analysis and Forecast and Homebuilder Analysis and Forecast reports, and assists with coverage of the public homebuilder space.
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