Statistical Modeling (Andrew Gelman) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Self-reference and self-reproduction of evidence

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades)

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Probabilistic numerics and the folk theorem of statistical computing

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of error

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses?

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschooling

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

A 10% swing in win probability corresponds to a 0.4% swing in predicted vote

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·Hacker News, statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?

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“Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation ...

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·79w·statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data

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StanCon 2024 Oxford: recorded talks are now released!

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Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) for an astronomy problem

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What makes an MCMC sampler GPU-friendly?

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Props to the liberal anticommunists of the 1930s-1950s

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A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past vote

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Freakonomics does it again (not in a good way). Jeez, these guys are credulous

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu·80w·Hacker News, statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

NYT catches up to Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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“Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail.

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This one might possibly be interesting.

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Prediction markets and the need for “dumb money” as well as “smart money”

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