The Overshoot · Scour

Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks

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How to Think About the Tariffs - by Matthew C. Klein

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Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics

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The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle

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Inside the BTFP Subsidy

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The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)

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The U.S. Chooses Stagflation

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The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now

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Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them

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U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.

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Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies

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Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon

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Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position

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China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook

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Conflicting Signals in the Strong Jobs Data

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There Is No "Reverse Conundrum" Driving Up Bond Yields

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Fed Officials Really Don't Want a Downturn

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Inflation and the Job Market are Sending Conflicting Signals

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The Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee on Inflation, the Stance of Monetary Policy, the "Field Guide to R-Star", Managing Supply Shocks, and More

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Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?

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