The Wisdom of the Crowd and Higher-Order Beliefs (opens in new tab)

arXiv:2102.02666v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose a new simple procedure called Population-Mean-Based Aggregation (PMBA) that enables a principal to "aggregate" information about an unknown state of the world from agents without understanding the information structure among them. PMBA only requires agents to communicate their beliefs about the state, and some agents to communicate their expectations of the population average belief. In a large population, for any finite num...